israel

Minority Positions Won’t Win

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

We finally bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. Without opposition, the Israelis and then the U.S. hit the major sites. At this point, we don’t know the extent of the damage. An earlier leaked assessment said it might have only set the program back for a few months, while others have said it had done such damage that Iran will need years to get back on track. Without people on the ground, a definitive answer is impossible, but if and when Israel goes in again, it will tell us what the nation at existential risk has determined.

A decade ago, I proposed bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. If they revive the program, we should strike back. Living in a real version of the Myth of Sisyphus, the Mullahs would eventually tire of pushing the boulder up the mountain, only to start again. So long as Israel controls the skies over Iran, follow-up attacks will take place as needed. It was a good plan then, and it remains so now.

Stopping religious fanatics from possessing weapons of mass destruction removes a grave threat not only to Israel but also from Iran’s long-range missile development to everyone else on Earth. If we denied North Korea and Pakistan nuclear weapons, we’d all sleep better. Iran is much scarier—every day, it’s death to America and death to Israel, and they mean it.

One might think we’d have a national sigh of relief, knowing Iran isn’t about to have nuclear warheads topping Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) aimed at us, but some aren’t cheering. Some Democratic leaders alluded to the leaked study.

The information is preliminary and labeled as having low confidence. Yet, the left-leaning legacy media pounced on it and spread it far and wide. Instead of lauding our military for its work, publicizing a possible Trump failure took precedence. Democratic politicians joined in.

This response seems to reinforce the perception of an anti-Israel bias by the left in its conflict with Iran. Support for pro-Hamas, an Iranian ally, and protesters who harassed Jews by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party indicates the left is anti-Semitic.

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Trump Can Do Better

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

Donald Trump often sees problems, but as someone who spends little time on in-depth analysis, he comes up with questionable solutions. One example is his suggestion that Jordan and Egypt take in Gazans to ease reconstruction efforts. The two nations immediately shot down the idea, and it isn’t hard to see why. Jordan already has more Palestinian refugees than native citizens. Returning to “Black September” in 1970, their presence has been problematic. They’re not about to add to a problem they never wanted in the first place.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gained his position by disposing of the previous Muslim Brotherhood government. Hamas, which governs the Gazans, is an outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch. The last thing he wants is to strengthen the Brotherhood’s numbers in his country.  

Trump should’ve known all this and avoided the negative blowback. Still, the president isn’t wrong to wonder, as a builder himself, how you can build a viable Gaza in place of the existing rubble when overrun with 2,000,000 displaced people in just 141 square miles. Gaza was overpopulated and under-employed before the war. Now, the situation is infinitely worse.

Considering Gaza’s makeup, I offered my “Solution for Gaza” posts. Rather than a full-scale invasion, designate areas to be leveled by explosives, inform everyone to leave, then blow them up. Working towards the sea and away from the Israeli border, food and other supplies are landed on the shore by ship. The ships are then required to take women, children, and infirm to safety in accepting countries. If the Arab world and other countries are concerned about these Palestinians, let them show it. International aid now supporting the Gazans would follow them, so there was little if any, increase in cost.

People were horrified, claiming it would level and depopulate Gaza. Looking at things now, with Gaza a pile of rubble and the number of women and children killed, the plan seems a lot better than what has happened.

I never thought the destruction and shipping of refugees would go on for very long before Hamas would give in. Faced with a slow but relentless low-cost action, Hamas couldn’t wait for the last Gazan civilian shipped out of a leveled Gaza. Pressure from other Arab countries faced with accepting Palestinian refugees would leave Hamas little choice.

Even though the situation is different now, with Gaza destroyed, few Gazans have left. We have to understand why there were so many Gazans. In 1948, 7000,000 Arabs fled the new nation of Israel, mainly at the urging of the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem. The U.N. established the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNWRA) 1949 to aid them. The agency set up numerous camps ringing Israel:

Why did the U.N. feel it was necessary to create a new refugee agency when the International Refugee Organization (IRO) had existed since World War II and was doing great work in resettlement? This group evolved into the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the primary vehicle for caring for and resettling refugees worldwide. It has accomplished the resettlement of tens of thousands of refugees annually.

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Trump vs. Trump?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

Recent events have added credibility to some of my posts. Not long ago, I cautioned that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) series of interest rate cuts might be at odds with the actual inflation outlook. The Biden spending spree adds to our high national debt, while the Social Security (S.S.) Trust Fund runs dry at best in ten years, with both parties adding to the program woes. Medicare may be in even worse shape.

Biden’s proposals will increase S.S. payouts to government retirees, and with Trump’s plan not to tax any S.S. income, retiree checks could face cuts even sooner. Maintaining the current level of payments will mean even more government borrowing. Already expected to lend trillions more, bond buyers must absorb more extensive offerings in the future. In the face of increasing interest rate risk, they’ll want more upfront.

The first chart is the inflation rate, showing it is still above the 2 % target:

This chart shows the Fed’s interest rate cuts:

While the U.S. 10yr Bond interest rate returned to near its highs:

Mortgage rates stay high:

This week, the Fed cut short-term rates another quarter point but said it would probably cut two times next year instead of the signaled four. The Dow dropped over 1,100 points. Confusion is the only explanation.

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And So It Ends

Dave Davis Commentary, Uncategorized , , , , , ,

I hope to live long enough to read the definitive book explaining how the powers in the Democratic Party brilliantly executed their plan to win the 2024 presidential election up to the end game. Faced with an administration with failing policies led by an increasingly physically failing President, the plan was to secure the weakest opponent. Once accomplished, replace Biden with a bright new face unattached to the administration to carry them to victory. A complaint media would partner in the endeavor.

The planners secured the Republican nomination for the weakest possible opponent, Donald Trump. They focused media attention on Trump by hitting the former president with several novel indictments. It is suitable to punish even political opponents if they break laws; we punish other citizens.

However, most of the cases were questionable rather than airtight. Republicans reacted as intended, with anger and sympathy for their former president. The planners also tried to keep him off the ballot in several places. The obvious unconstitutionality further enraged many in the G.O.P. All the focus on Trump’s court cases sucked all the air out of his primary opponents. Only Nikki Haley lasted through Super Tuesday.

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The Debate Isn’t About Problem Solving

Dave Davis Commentary, COVID-19, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

As we realize the catastrophic impact of our response to the COVID-19 epidemic, it’s crucial to acknowledge the profound, long-lasting effects on our children’s education. Many will struggle to make up for the learning loss from unnecessarily closed schools. The staggering borrowing to offset income losses from a shutdown economy will burden us for years.

Those in charge, like Anthony Fauci, owe the nation an apology on many levels, from scientifically unsupported policies to the apparent coverup of the pandemic’s laboratory origins. Instead, the good doctor gets a friendly reception on his book tour. My series on COVID left no doubt about my feelings about our actions from March ’20 on. Out front of every lousy decision was Dr. Fauci. Yet, welcoming Dr. Fauci as some hero in progressive stops nationwide is commonplace.

It’s as if everything we learned about the pandemic and our awful response missed a large part of the electorate. We see similar blindness among many when it comes to the Gaza War. Brutely attacked, Israel counter-attacked against the Hamas perpetrators. In contravention of the accepted rules of war, Hamas has located its military in heavily populated areas, hospitals, schools, and Mosques. Breaking the prohibition of using civilians, especially women and children, as human shields have resulted in preventable civilian casualties; the leader of Hamas tells the world how little they value Palestinian lives by saying they’re winning world opinion with the increasing civilian deaths. Yet, the progressive left blames Israel.

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