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Anatomy of a Failure

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

We’ve ceased our offense against Iran, while the same Regime controls the vital Strait of Hormuz. Our Gulf allies are increasingly at the mercy of this ruthless gang. Israel is off bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon, trying to salvage something from this fiasco. Our other allies in Europe and Asia wonder why they’re suffering from this mess when nobody asked them. Yet the Trump administration expects them to clean it up.

How did the most powerful nation on earth end up behind the eight-ball? By breaking every rule for success. Presumably, we had an objective. We had already bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, putting that program back, maybe for years. We controlled the skies over that nation. Having already mowed their capabilities, there is no need to mow again now.

\What was present was an Iran in dire straits. Sanctions, mismanagement of water resources, and the economy had sparked mass protests. The vast majority of Iranians demanded change. Other than those directly benefiting from the Regime, support evaporated. The Mullahs had never been in a weaker position. What was here was the chance to free the people to form a government that didn’t threaten their neighbors.

The Trump administration took notice. The President told the Iranian protesters we had their back. No question what our goal was, toppling the Regime. We started sending our forces to the area. The head Mullah and many of the key players in his government were killed from the air.

In the meantime, the Iranian government slaughtered in excess of 40,000 protesters. The streets went quiet. This result shouldn’t surprise anyone. We’ve seen this movie many times before. Ruthless dictatorial governments use their monopoly of weapons to trounce unarmed protestors. No matter how bad the government is, it stays in power because nobody can shoot back. Cubans have lived at the subsistence level for decades. Does it even have an economy? Still, the communists persist.

Oil-rich Venezuela has followed the same path. When faced with losing power, there is no limit to the pain the absolute rulers will inflict on their defenseless citizenry. The picture of an unarmed Tiananmen Square protester standing in front of massive tanks illustrates the imbalance.

The only successful revolutions in history took place where armed people existed from the start, or military units refused to fire on the people, and changed sides. Imagine how poorly our forefathers would’ve fared if only the redcoats had arms. Instead, we turned them back at Lexington and Concord. To have a “shot heard round the world, ” you have to have a gun. The minutemen had guns and knew how to use them. The rest is history.

Other revolutions, such as the French and Russian, saw military units refuse to fire on the people and turn against their rulers. No matter how great the air superiority, only armed resistance on the ground can drive out the despots.

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Remember the “Horns”

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

War is an awful business. Once started, all sorts of things can go wrong. That’s why no one should ever go into it lightly. Yet, there are circumstances where you come to the conclusion you have no real choice but to attack.

Before you move, those who studied war, from Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, to B.H. Liddell Hart cautioned that you need a clear objective—one that eliminates the problem or problems causing your decision to go to war. In the present case, the administration determined that as long as the mullahs ruled Iran, we faced intolerable threats, from nuclear war, attacks by Iran or its allies on others in the Mideast, or disruption of major trade routes.

The timing seems right. Thanks to mainly Israeli actions, we control the air over Iran. Sanctions and the Mullahs’ mismanagement have weakened the Iranian economy to a point where businesspeople have joined the young in longing for change.

Having determined that the mullahs in power pose an existential threat, anything short of regime change won’t solve the problems. The mullahs must go.

With the objective in place, what’s our strategy for success? We pay all those military people with all those medals and ribbons to show us the path to victory. Having studied the art of war all their lives, they should know what works and what to avoid.

I didn’t spend a lifetime in the military, but I did go to a military school, where our dedicated commandant taught the required military science courses. We studied what worked, or didn’t work, throughout the ages. Using your superior numbers or resources to overpower, frankly, is wasteful and may result in a “Pyrrhic victory,” named after the King who lost so much in winning that he couldn’t continue his war against the Romans.

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Fixing Upheavals

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

Funny how things sometimes unfold in line with your thoughts. In my post two weeks ago, I pointed out that Trump’s reimposition of broad tariffs, taking effect, isn’t a sure thing. The administration promised speedy interest-bearing refunds to obtain a stay of the Court of International Trade’s (CIT) decision declaring the bulk of the president’s tariffs unconstitutional if the Government lost its appeals. Having lost in the Supreme Court, the administration now finds itself in an impossible situation.

You can bomb the hell out of the country, but you need forces on the ground to effect regime change. Nazi Germany was militarily superior to the British in WWII, but an all-out air campaign never broke them, without troops on the ground.

Last week, I wrote that the best bet to foster an armed Iranian uprising lay with the support of the Kurds on both sides of the Iran-Iraq border. However, our spotty treatment of this put-upon group might make them reluctant to bail us out:

In both cases, the administration appears not to have thought things through. Trying to slow down or block the refunds amounts to admitting it misled the courts. Now the refund case is back in the CIT, and Judge Richard Eaton has ordered the refunds. As the sole judge in charge of the refund cases, he has issued a straightforward ruling, leaving the Government no alternative but to do what it promised the courts.

Judge Eaton refused to issue a stay of his order pending the Government’s appeal. The Appeals Court has already delegated the CIT to handle the refunds, so it is unlikely to intervene. On Friday, the judge granted the Government more time after it admitted it had misled the courts and could not process the refunds immediately.

Given the Government’s history of promising speedy refunds if it loses, and then claiming it’s too difficult to issue quickly when the Supreme Court ruled against it, staying an adverse ruling in the CIT on the new 122 tariffs is anything but certain. Two dozen states are already filing suit against the new tariffs, and businesses are likely to be joined by those still suffering from the previous illegal tariffs. An injunction against their implementation is only just while awaiting a final decision.

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In Need Of A Friend

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

While the media concentrates on the mystery of a celebrity’s mother’s disappearance, some important things are going on with little recognition. I have long advocated for U.S. support of the Kurds, one of the world’s largest ethnic groups without a nation, because of their strategic location:

Long friendly with America, the Kurds were the key to the destruction of ISIS’s Caliphate. They supplied the forces on the ground at great cost, which led to victory. However, our treatment of these friends since then hasn’t been very ally-like. Since the victory, the U.S. has allowed its overlords in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria to inflict damage on it. Recently, the Turkish-backedSyrian Revolutionary government has crushed the Kurds in that country while the U.S. stood by.

Why is this important right now? When protests broke out over Iran’s plummeting currency, our President urged them on, telling them “he had their back,” only to have the protesters mowed down by the thousands. Trump drew his red line, telling Iran’s leader not to crush his own people. The Mulahs ignored him. Now, Trump’s credibility is on the line. To keep his word, regime change seems the only solution.

While we and maybe with the Israelis can pound the Mullah’s forces from the air, Trump knows that committing large American ground forces is a non-starter, repeating the nation-building that Trump lambasted George W. Bush over.

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Hans Christian Andrson Told It Right

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

In my August 1, blog post, I wondered if Donald Trump’s second term was “Topping Out”? The President looked like the King of the Hill. The Stock Market hitting new highs and tariff-induced deals seemed to promise a manufacturing boom that would take us to untold prosperity, or at least that’s what Trump endlessly told us.

The passage of the Great Big Beautiful Bill, which allows businesses to write off capital investments immediately, is expected to contribute to the upcoming boom. Trump trumpeted his imminent settling of the world’s wars. What’s not to like? I warned of shoals ahead. One problem is that Trump has never had Reagan’s widespread appeal:

The cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy is his ability to use tariffs as a bludgeon to extract concessions from the rest of the world and force American businesses to plead their cases on bended knee, some even giving the Government an ownership stake. The world awaited Trump’s next action.

Yet, the majority of the tariffs had already been deemed illegal by two courts. The appeals court has upheld those verdicts, and we’re awaiting the Supreme Court’s final decision after just hearing oral arguments. If the High Court had only wanted to nullify the tariffs imposed under the single subject law, it could have refused to take the case. That action would’ve avoided prolonging the pain while ending most tariffs.

It’s too horrifying to think that the court wants to take the power to tax away from Congress and award it to the President, so it may wish to clarify how narrow the executive power is in this area, defining what actually constitutes an emergency, setting limits as to the time before you have to go to Congress. The bludgeon may become a twig, and Trump’s economic policy, domestic and foreign, evaporates.

While the President has had some success in fostering peace in some places, the two most significant areas of conflict, Israel and Ukraine, have received vastly different responses from Trump.

Both featured an unprovoked attack seeking to destroy these states ultimately. Israel and Ukraine seek to embrace Western values, while Russia and Hamas profess the opposite. Both Ukraine and Israel have waged truly brave and intelligent innovative wars, much to the shock of their enemies. America should know what the right side is to support, given our values.

While Israel has received the utmost Trump administration support, including direct defensive support and the bombing of a common enemy, Iran, the U.S. only provides arms bought and paid for by others and intermittent intelligence to Ukraine. Trump fetes Israel’s Netenyhu, but treats Ukraine’s Zelensky like a pariah.

Given the similarities of the two wars, what accounts for Trump’s differing positions? The administration, and even the special envoys, are mostly the same. The scientific method seeks to isolate and identify a single, distinct factor that explains a phenomenon.

Vice President Vance’s distaste for Ukraine is hardly a secret, given his part in humiliating Zelensky in the Oval Office. His and his supporters’ views dominate the administration of Ukraine policy. The same people are present in discussions of Middle East policy, but with two notable additions: Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, both Orthodox Jews, have also taken part in this area. During the previous Trump administration, they played a significant role in facilitating the Abraham Accords, arguably one of Trump’s most notable foreign policy achievements.

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