How realistic is it a new successful major party could actually come into existence?  With any new product, the first question, is there a market for it?  While on the surface overwhelmingly Republicans appear to be Trump supporters.  The Wall Street Journal /NBC polling put Trump’s approval rating among Republicans is 80% to 15% disapproval.  Looks as if Republicans and Trump are synonymous. However, the poll dug deeper to show only 54% favor Trump over party while 40% favor party over Trump.  While Trunpists are clearly a majority of in the party, a sizable put party above Trump.  Conversely, The Liberal dominated Democrats are near unanimous is their opposition to Trump 91%  to 7%. Yet while those Democrats considering themselves liberals has grown to 51%, 47% consider themselves moderate/conservative.  Serious minorities in both parties are less than enthusiastic Trumpists or liberals even though they’re not dominant in either party.  This means the candidates put forth by the dominant wings of their respective parties may not reflect their views and desires.  Given the extreme wings control of primaries they aren’t likely to get such candidates reflecting them  any time in the future.

So what, you might say.  They’re just minorities and minorities don’t win.  Remember we’ve just mentioned Democrats and Republicans, but according to the latest Gallup Poll, Republicans make up only 24% of the population while the Democrats are marginally better at 29%.  Fully 45% are independents. These are people refusing to identify with either party let alone with their extreme wings. Taken together with the party minorities it appears there is major part of the voting public not fully served by the candidates of the two major parties.  This is a market worth pursuing.

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Given our two major parties either are in alignment on major policies or in silent agreement to keep certain hot button issues at the boiling point, a little competition might be expected to come in to take advantage of an under served market. There actually are people who have noticed continuing down our present fiscal path can only end in disaster.  The only question is when.  Maybe they’ve noticed our rapidly aging population and realize it is also on the verge of declining.  Just to keep our social programs going we need more not fewer people.  Free markets have raised millions and millions of people out of grinding poverty and some recognize this and fear the effects of a reversal.   We live in a shrinking world and it’s unreasonable to think we can be a walled off “Big Switzerland.” Most don’t want to be asked if they’re pro-life or pro-choice when they’re actually somewhere in the middle.  Instead of endless fruitless fighting  about guns many are asking if all these people knew the perpetrators of these mass murders were disturbed or had mental problems why was d nothing was done?  All these people just might be asking “where do I go to find somebody to represent my views?”

Progressives may feel they have won the culture wars, but the backlash has contributed mightily to the fact Democrats control very little that matters.  Further it has greatly contributed to the nations ugly divide.  An update of William Graham Sumner’s “Forgotten Man” might be illuminating.  In his 1876 essay he put it in algebraic terms,

As soon as A observes something which seems to him wrong, from which X is suffering, A talks it over with B, and A and B then propose to get a law passed to remedy the evil and help X. Their law always proposes to determine what C shall do for X, or, in better case, what A, B, and C shall do for X… What I want to do is to look up C. I want to show you what manner of man he is. I call him the Forgotten Man. perhaps the appellation is not strictly correct. he is the man who never is thought of…. I call him the forgotten man… He works, he votes, generally he prays—but he always  pays…”

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