Crossroads

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

Forgoing his son’s wedding, President Trump is in Washington promising to inform us of a decisive next move in the Iranian War. With the “ceasefire in effect for about a month, at the beginning of May, the Wall Street Journal editorialized that the administration must successfully finish the War. I agreed, but in an unpublished letter to the editor, I pointed out the changes needed, or we would fail:

To: WSJ letters to the editor

      Trump’s resolve on Iran at 60 Days.”

       The Journal’s editorial board is correct in stating that Trump’s abandonment of the War is unpalatable. However, this ignores the elephant in the room: the failure, from the start, to set clear goals, develop a strategy, and equip the military with the tools to achieve them. We attacked without the ‘why’ and ‘how’ being determined. We failed to anticipate the enemy’s likely countermeasures. Closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the widespread use of drones and rockets against our friends and us, weren’t anticipated and countered. Our lack of offensive and defensive drone capacity, or even of mine sweeping, shows a lack of real preparation.  

If we fail to rectify these shortcomings, dragging out an unfocused war will end with the same untrustworthy fanatics in control in Iran. The taste of defeat and humiliation will not only remain foul but will be much more costly.

It will likely take replacing the current ineffective military command with new, knowledgeable, and imaginative leadership to put a workable plan into action. With help from others, such as Ukraine and the Kurds, to fill in the gaps, there is still time to win this War, but not without recognizing how we went wrong in the first place.  Dave Davis, Phoenix, AZ 

If Trump decides to escalate from here, what visible signs will there be to hope for success? Some indication of armed revolt or turning of existing military units within Iran. Bombing and the blockade by themselves don’t directly threaten the ruling Iranian Regime. One has only to look at Cuba, where the people are living with next to nothing, and still the communists are in charge. The people can’t shoot back.

Conversely, a successful armed uprising is an existential threat. The Revolutionary Guard Corps. (IRGC) has no choice but to divert troops and resources to quickly suppress the uprising or ultimately face being crushed. However, moving to contain the revolt exposes the IRGC to the overwhelming U.S. and Israeli air power.

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Recalling a Failed Test

Dave Davis Commentary, COVID-19, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

A cruise ship reporting an outbreak of Hantavirus, with a loss of life, brought back memories of COVID and how we responded. Lockdowns, needless nursing home deaths, school closures, isolation, and all the rules, such as distancing and mask requirements. Not a pleasant memory.

Then we have the recent Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee receiving testimony from a CIA whistleblower on the cover-up of the likely Wuhan Lab Covid origin. Dr. Anthony Fauci used his government position to intervene in a CIA report on the lab’s origins, which was connected to funding for the Wuhan Lab. That establishment was conducting “Change of Function” research that could have resulted in the Covid virus.

Shining a light on how misinformation and government actors led to actions we’re still suffering from, it made clear that the top-down government response failed on a massive scale. Yet, this is the type of crisis progressives claim government experts handle best.

To understand how we ended up on this Covid response road, we have to recall the history of top-down government dominance. As I’ve pointed out in “Long Journey to More”, for thousands of years, settled agricultural societies divided people into classes, with an educated ruling class at the top (up to 10%), an illiterate mass, and a smaller artisan-merchant class in between.

The masses lacked the knowledge to dispute what the government told them, and the artisan-merchant class, though often literate, was too dependent on the ruling class’s good graces to offer much dissent—human progress was glacial.

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Making Things Worse

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

Maybe you might feel the same way. It’s as if the Trump administration looks at things and asks, ‘ How can I make things worse? Take our problem with Iran. Israel had hammered Hamas, Hezbollah, and most importantly, Iran, to a point where they could offer little resistance from air strikes. The U.S. joined in by bombing and burying Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Mismanagement by the ruling regime led to water shortages and galloping inflation.

The Iranian people had it. All we needed to do was to find a way to create some space in Iran where they could arm, train, and organize. Once established, the regime is on the horns of a dilemma. Put their most loyal troops out where airpower can disseminate them, or hold back, allowing the revolution to grow.

With restive minorities and an army overshadowed by the Revolutionary Guard, coupled with Israeli contacts on the ground in Iran, with some planning, the regime is ripe for overthrow. Done right, we control the timing of the regime’s demise. Involved in an existential civil war, the last thing they’d want to do is use their limited military resources to attack other nations or international shipping.

What we got is a massive bombing attack on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities by a vast armada, Israel’s air force, and other resources, combined with decapitating the regime’s leadership.

Rather than surrendering, Iran struck back at our military installations and our allies’ infrastructure, mainly by massing drones. These were followed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, destabilizing the world’s economy.

Our response has been a “ceasefire” and a blockade of Iran, further restricting the movement of oil, gas, fertilizer, and other goods, worsening the world’s problems.

The Iranian people, the ones we should be helping, are far worse off. With less of everything, runaway inflation is making people poorer than ever. The regime continues to hang the opposition. We never gave them anything needed to fight back, and they’re paying a steep price that only looks to get worse.

Somehow, we’ve managed to make everything much worse.

The American people elected Donald Trump to another term in hopes of returning to the strong economy of his first term, based on growth-friendly tax policies and reduced regulation. Increasing supply to defeat Biden’s high inflation.

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Rallying the Ignorant

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

I woke up on May 1st to a story about the Chicago Teachers’ Union failing to shut down the City’s public school system so students could attend socialist May Day rallies. However, busing many students to the rally will occur after school. As someone born and raised in the Windy City and who lived there for over 30 years, I can’t help but wonder what’s happening there.

What is going on with the schools? Even though the City spends over $30,000 on each public school student, the results are abysmal. Most of the City’s public school students perform below grade level. What’s taught?. Obviously, not the three Rs. In a world that is increasingly demanding greater skills, especially critical thinking, why is the Chicago School system emphasizing a failed form of government, socialism?

To make students believe that socialism’s top-down organization can deliver better results, one must ignore or distort history. Marxism has failed everywhere in every instance, but millions have died in its implementation. Do the kids know the facts, or receiving an alternative, unfounded story? If the schools are discarding historical facts, what other information never reaches the students? Can it even be called education if you’re discarding factual information, or is it indoctrination?

Chicago taxes are among the highest in the nation. Yet students in low-tax Mississippi outperform yours. Surely Chicagoans aren’t happy with schools failing their kids, yet they keep voting for it.

Of course, there are other ways of voting besides the ballot box. The City is only three-quarters of what it was when I left. When one in four leaves, they no longer pay your taxes or invest in your City. How do you justify spending more money on education as enrollment declines? Yet the teacher’s union demands and gets more.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt issued a stern warning against allowing public-sector unions. President John F. Kennedy disagreed and allowed them, but Roosevelt’s reasoning proved correct. In many cities, the unions are in control, and, like all unions, they exist only to grab more for themselves. Electing those who write your check really works for the unions.

If uncorrected, Chicago and many other cities under the grip of their public-sector unions will enter a death spiral. Paying out ever-increasing amounts from a shrinking tax base. That situation can’t go on forever, and it won’t.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’s wonderful speech at the University of Texas at Austin. He made clear how incompatible our founding ideals are with progressive socialism. One has to wonder how much these rally-attending Chicago students even know about the radical change our Revolution wrought, lifting us and much of the world, compared with their knowledge of Marxist dogma?

Organized around its ideals, the U.S. is unlike most other nations. Rather than culture, race, ethnicity, or faith groups, we value individual rights, regardless of your background. Life, liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness is about your yearnings, not some groupthink.

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Watershed Week

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

A watershed moment for Donald Trump’s second term, that’s what we may say in retrospect of this past week. Donald Trump’s two significant undertakings this time around, the Iran war and massive tariffs, are floundering. The war stalemate appears to only lead to pain for those we supposedly set out to help. The non-regime people of Iran, Israel, and our Gulf allies would benefit from the removal of the religious fanatics making existential threats far and wide. Instead, we’re dealing with a regime apparently more fanatical than the one featuring those we killed.

So long as both sides greatly restrict shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, neither the Gulf States nor Iran can export Oil, natural gas, or fertilizer, or receive needed imports. The pain is spreading to energy and fertilizer importers worldwide. U.S. farmers are already complaining about the lack of affordable fertilizer. Airlines from Europe to Australia are warning about an impending jet fuel shortage.

This situation couldn’t be what the Trump administration foresaw when they, along with Israel, undertook the latest attack on Iran. Their goals are still unclear. As I’ve pointed out, without a clear objective and a strategy to gain it, an unfocused, poorly planned effort, even if backed by massive forces, can fail.

Putin’s Ukraine invasion should’ve been a cautionary tale. In both wars, the attackers failed to appreciate their opponents’ ability to resist and anticipate possible reactions. The nimble and imaginative Ukrainians smashed the ponderous Russian columns. Years later, the stalemate continues. Of course, Donald Trump has called Putin a “Genius.”

It boggles the mind to think our leaders were unaware of the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the ability of Iranian drones, anti-ship rockets, mines, and small, swift boats to close it. Yet, here we are.

Both sides claim the stalemate favors them. Only one can be right. The U.S. believes its blockade will severely cripple Iran’s economy. No oil going out or goods coming in will cause oil fields to shut down and shortages of everything.

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