Fixing Upheavals

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

Funny how things sometimes unfold in line with your thoughts. In my post two weeks ago, I pointed out that Trump’s reimposition of broad tariffs, taking effect, isn’t a sure thing. The administration promised speedy interest-bearing refunds to obtain a stay of the Court of International Trade’s (CIT) decision declaring the bulk of the president’s tariffs unconstitutional if the Government lost its appeals. Having lost in the Supreme Court, the administration now finds itself in an impossible situation.

You can bomb the hell out of the country, but you need forces on the ground to effect regime change. Nazi Germany was militarily superior to the British in WWII, but an all-out air campaign never broke them, without troops on the ground.

Last week, I wrote that the best bet to foster an armed Iranian uprising lay with the support of the Kurds on both sides of the Iran-Iraq border. However, our spotty treatment of this put-upon group might make them reluctant to bail us out:

In both cases, the administration appears not to have thought things through. Trying to slow down or block the refunds amounts to admitting it misled the courts. Now the refund case is back in the CIT, and Judge Richard Eaton has ordered the refunds. As the sole judge in charge of the refund cases, he has issued a straightforward ruling, leaving the Government no alternative but to do what it promised the courts.

Judge Eaton refused to issue a stay of his order pending the Government’s appeal. The Appeals Court has already delegated the CIT to handle the refunds, so it is unlikely to intervene. On Friday, the judge granted the Government more time after it admitted it had misled the courts and could not process the refunds immediately.

Given the Government’s history of promising speedy refunds if it loses, and then claiming it’s too difficult to issue quickly when the Supreme Court ruled against it, staying an adverse ruling in the CIT on the new 122 tariffs is anything but certain. Two dozen states are already filing suit against the new tariffs, and businesses are likely to be joined by those still suffering from the previous illegal tariffs. An injunction against their implementation is only just while awaiting a final decision.

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Food For Thought

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

It took only a few moments after the Supreme Court’s long-awaited tariff decision for President Trump to strike back by imposing an across-the-board 10% tariff. Within 24 hours, he increased it to 15%. Under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, the tariffs remain in effect for the next 150 days. At that point, the tariff authority will expire unless Congress acts. Not to worry, the administration will have completed the mandatory work to continue the tariffs under yet another statute.

The same affected importers and others are likely to sue to prevent implementation. Still, given how long it took to secure a favorable decision on the original statute used to justify Trump’s torrent of tariffs, the administration will remain one step ahead of relief.

As for getting a refund for the illegal tariffs collected, Judge Kavanaugh, in his dissent, said that’s messy. Litigating the refunds could take years, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Nice try, Supreme Court, but the courts are just too slow to keep up with those bright administration people. Trump’s beloved tariffs will remain, while importers will grow old waiting for their refunds.

According to the administration and its media supporters, the importer’s High Court victory is just a mirage. Nothing has really changed. Trump will keep your money and keep collecting in the future.

That’s one plotline for the future of the Trump tariff regime, but there might be another script. The stage for court challenges to the administration is the Court of International Trade (CIT). This court will hear the demands of Costco, FedEx, and many others for refunds.

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The Real Trump

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

We finally have the Supreme Court tariff decision. Even though they took too long in a faster-moving world, it is as predicted. The Court ruled that all tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal in a 6-to-3 decision. The majority acknowledged what the first article of our Constitution clearly states: that duties (tariffs), like all taxes, are the exclusive province of Congress.

Predictably, the President threw a hissy fit. His main ire fell on two of the justices he appointed, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett,, even going so far as saying their families are ashamed of them or should be. At the same time, he praised the three conservative judges who backed the tariffs, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh. The latter wrote the key dissenting opinion. He made three points: the statute gives unlimited tariff power, the linking tariff power to the ability to conduct foreign affairs, and refunding the money would be “messy.

All three justices claim to be Scalia originalists, meaning simply applying the original intent of the law. What is confusing about the original intent of the first article of the Constitution that gives the power of the purse, including duties, exclusively to Congress? The thinking behind this traces back through British history and law, and the framers’ intent is crystal clear. What part of “no taxation without representation” don’t they understand? The majority in Chief Justice’s opinion stated the obvious.

The contention that the President needs the power to impose a punishing tax on U.S. citizens to conduct foreign affairs would be news to the Founding Fathers. This idea is like a child demanding his way, or he’ll hurt himself. As two recent studies have shown, Americans, not foreigners, pay 90% of the tariffs.

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In Need Of A Friend

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

While the media concentrates on the mystery of a celebrity’s mother’s disappearance, some important things are going on with little recognition. I have long advocated for U.S. support of the Kurds, one of the world’s largest ethnic groups without a nation, because of their strategic location:

Long friendly with America, the Kurds were the key to the destruction of ISIS’s Caliphate. They supplied the forces on the ground at great cost, which led to victory. However, our treatment of these friends since then hasn’t been very ally-like. Since the victory, the U.S. has allowed its overlords in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria to inflict damage on it. Recently, the Turkish-backedSyrian Revolutionary government has crushed the Kurds in that country while the U.S. stood by.

Why is this important right now? When protests broke out over Iran’s plummeting currency, our President urged them on, telling them “he had their back,” only to have the protesters mowed down by the thousands. Trump drew his red line, telling Iran’s leader not to crush his own people. The Mulahs ignored him. Now, Trump’s credibility is on the line. To keep his word, regime change seems the only solution.

While we and maybe with the Israelis can pound the Mullah’s forces from the air, Trump knows that committing large American ground forces is a non-starter, repeating the nation-building that Trump lambasted George W. Bush over.

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Twins In The Twin Cities

Dave Davis Uncategorized , , , ,

Donald Trump won the 2024 election on his promise to stop the mass migration across our southern Border. High-profile crimes highlighted that many bad people were among those entering the country. Stopping the flood and removing the bad actors from our country is a big part of Trump’s mandate. The Administration secured the Southern Border and then began rounding up bad actors.

In most places, especially in red states, local authorities worked with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to remove those they apprehended. So far, so good. However, the scope of the deportations expanded significantly. A presidential advisor was said to demand 3,000 deportations a day. The short-order cook, or the dry-waller, who had been here for years without problems, suddenly became a target.

Not prepared for this wide net, we didn’t want to see our neighbors, employees, and people we depend on taken away. Fear spread. We wanted the bad people out, but not our neighbors with clean records.

Many places claimed Sanctuary City status and refused to work with federal authorities, even to get rid of criminals. Letting them back out on the street, rather than deporting them, is a questionable stance, but the deporting of law-abiding, but illegal migrants, changed perceptions. A Trump underwater issue, the expansion appalled most Americans.

At a time when the U.S. is facing declining population growth, this is terrible timing to kick out millions of working taxpayers. Regardless of the initial costs, most who have been here for years are now positive additions. We’ve educated many dreamers who were brought here as children by their parents. Why kick them out when they’re now paying off? Why adopt such an unpopular position? Whatever the initial costs, the security net, and education expenses are in the past, and the payoff is now and into the future. This action is bad. policy. Americans favor immigration:

So why has the Administration taken this tactic? It’s playing to its anti-immigration base. Presidential advisor Steven Miller is the voice of this base, with media support from the likes of Tucker Carlson, Laura Loomer, and Steve Bannon. Crossing the base can doom a political career. The committed turnout in primaries puts anyone who disagrees with them in a challenging position, allowing this faction to punch well above its weight. The result is a political Party saddled with a bad, unpopular policy.

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