israel

Trump vs. Trump?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

Recent events have added credibility to some of my posts. Not long ago, I cautioned that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) series of interest rate cuts might be at odds with the actual inflation outlook. The Biden spending spree adds to our high national debt, while the Social Security (S.S.) Trust Fund runs dry at best in ten years, with both parties adding to the program woes. Medicare may be in even worse shape.

Biden’s proposals will increase S.S. payouts to government retirees, and with Trump’s plan not to tax any S.S. income, retiree checks could face cuts even sooner. Maintaining the current level of payments will mean even more government borrowing. Already expected to lend trillions more, bond buyers must absorb more extensive offerings in the future. In the face of increasing interest rate risk, they’ll want more upfront.

The first chart is the inflation rate, showing it is still above the 2 % target:

This chart shows the Fed’s interest rate cuts:

While the U.S. 10yr Bond interest rate returned to near its highs:

Mortgage rates stay high:

This week, the Fed cut short-term rates another quarter point but said it would probably cut two times next year instead of the signaled four. The Dow dropped over 1,100 points. Confusion is the only explanation.

Continue reading →

And So It Ends

Dave Davis Commentary, Uncategorized , , , , , ,

I hope to live long enough to read the definitive book explaining how the powers in the Democratic Party brilliantly executed their plan to win the 2024 presidential election up to the end game. Faced with an administration with failing policies led by an increasingly physically failing President, the plan was to secure the weakest opponent. Once accomplished, replace Biden with a bright new face unattached to the administration to carry them to victory. A complaint media would partner in the endeavor.

The planners secured the Republican nomination for the weakest possible opponent, Donald Trump. They focused media attention on Trump by hitting the former president with several novel indictments. It is suitable to punish even political opponents if they break laws; we punish other citizens.

However, most of the cases were questionable rather than airtight. Republicans reacted as intended, with anger and sympathy for their former president. The planners also tried to keep him off the ballot in several places. The obvious unconstitutionality further enraged many in the G.O.P. All the focus on Trump’s court cases sucked all the air out of his primary opponents. Only Nikki Haley lasted through Super Tuesday.

Continue reading →

The Debate Isn’t About Problem Solving

Dave Davis Commentary, COVID-19, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

As we realize the catastrophic impact of our response to the COVID-19 epidemic, it’s crucial to acknowledge the profound, long-lasting effects on our children’s education. Many will struggle to make up for the learning loss from unnecessarily closed schools. The staggering borrowing to offset income losses from a shutdown economy will burden us for years.

Those in charge, like Anthony Fauci, owe the nation an apology on many levels, from scientifically unsupported policies to the apparent coverup of the pandemic’s laboratory origins. Instead, the good doctor gets a friendly reception on his book tour. My series on COVID left no doubt about my feelings about our actions from March ’20 on. Out front of every lousy decision was Dr. Fauci. Yet, welcoming Dr. Fauci as some hero in progressive stops nationwide is commonplace.

It’s as if everything we learned about the pandemic and our awful response missed a large part of the electorate. We see similar blindness among many when it comes to the Gaza War. Brutely attacked, Israel counter-attacked against the Hamas perpetrators. In contravention of the accepted rules of war, Hamas has located its military in heavily populated areas, hospitals, schools, and Mosques. Breaking the prohibition of using civilians, especially women and children, as human shields have resulted in preventable civilian casualties; the leader of Hamas tells the world how little they value Palestinian lives by saying they’re winning world opinion with the increasing civilian deaths. Yet, the progressive left blames Israel.

Continue reading →

Are Things Getting Even Stranger?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East , , , ,

I’ve reached a point where I realize the administration and its media heralds’ approach to the Gaza War has reached the same state of incoherence as their actions in Afghanistan and Ukraine. After a promising start, the former ended in catastrophe, and the latter is headed in the same direction. 

They demand Israel institute a civilian Gazan government before the war is over. Imagine attempting this approach in Nazi Germany while a good part of the Wehrmacht is still intact. The idea of Mahmoud Abbas stepping in to rule the strip is laughable. The Gazans chased his Fatah-ruled Palestinian Authority out shortly after the Israelis left Gaza in 2005.

Producing a reformed, newly constituted Palestinian Authority, even if possible, would take considerable time. Who would rule until then? A coalition of Arab states? How long would that take?

Even if you put some government in place, how would it enforce its rules? Hamas still has an estimated ten to twenty thousand heavily armed fighters. Where are the police or troops going to come from to stop Hamas from continuing to attack Israel or take over the new government?

The U.S. Army recommends 20-25 counterinsurgents to every 1,000 residents. The Gaza population of around 2 million requires 40,000 troops to suppress an armed insurrection. Exactly where are these troops coming from to duke it out with Hamas? Israel isn’t about to accept a Palestinian force of that size. The vast majority of Palestinians support Hamas’s October 7 attack. Such a force might join forces with Hamas and attack Israel. 

Has anyone heard from any Arab nations volunteering substantial military? Even if they did, would they take on a heavily armed opponent?

Continue reading →

Following Up

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

In my last post, I condemned the president of my alma Mater, Northwestern, as a dishonorable Jew for giving perks to the pro-Hamas demonstrators while doing nothing to make Jewish students and others feel safe on campus. Shortly after, I received an email from President Michael H. Schill, linking to His OP-ED in the Chicago Tribune, explaining his actions. Eagerly, I clicked to see if his assurance that Jewish students were still welcome and safe at N.U. is clearly stated. I’d rather be wrong about him if the campus were welcoming and safe for all. 

It’s sad to say that Schill is even worse than I thought. Even though Jews are the ones most threatened, he only mentions them obliquely, “First and foremost, we needed to protect the health and safety of our entire community, including our Jewish students.” The protestors are pro-Hamas. The group that just murdered and savaged the most significant number of Jews since the Holocaust and still holds hostages. Even with the “settlement, “keffiyeh-wearing demonstrators remain on Deering Meadow for another month. Wearing the headscarves shows solidarity with those desiring to dispose of all the Jews between the Jordan and the Mediterranean Sea.

In the 1930s, Germans wore brown shirts to show their hatred of Jews. Now, the protestors wear keffiyehs to convey the same sentiment. How does this deliver any feeling of welcome or safety to Jews on campus?

Understandably, Schill’s “settlement” and actions have drawn Jewish wrath. Rather than fighting the clear and present antisemitism, he equates it with virtually non-existent anti-muslin acts. “Second, we believe in free expression, but that most assuredly does not include antisemitic or anti-Muslim harassment or intimidation.” 

While Schill rolled over and placated the demonstrators, Ben Sasse, the University of Florida President, faithfully adhered to his school’s rules. Those rules allowed free speech, but if you broke them, you faced immediate suspension. As a result, students, including Jews, went about the business of learning without disturbance. 

Continue reading →