A watershed moment for Donald Trump’s second term, that’s what we may say in retrospect of this past week. Donald Trump’s two significant undertakings this time around, the Iran war and massive tariffs, are floundering. The war stalemate appears to only lead to pain for those we supposedly set out to help. The non-regime people of Iran, Israel, and our Gulf allies would benefit from the removal of the religious fanatics making existential threats far and wide. Instead, we’re dealing with a regime apparently more fanatical than the one featuring those we killed.

So long as both sides greatly restrict shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, neither the Gulf States nor Iran can export Oil, natural gas, or fertilizer, or receive needed imports. The pain is spreading to energy and fertilizer importers worldwide. U.S. farmers are already complaining about the lack of affordable fertilizer. Airlines from Europe to Australia are warning about an impending jet fuel shortage.

This situation couldn’t be what the Trump administration foresaw when they, along with Israel, undertook the latest attack on Iran. Their goals are still unclear. As I’ve pointed out, without a clear objective and a strategy to gain it, an unfocused, poorly planned effort, even if backed by massive forces, can fail.

Putin’s Ukraine invasion should’ve been a cautionary tale. In both wars, the attackers failed to appreciate their opponents’ ability to resist and anticipate possible reactions. The nimble and imaginative Ukrainians smashed the ponderous Russian columns. Years later, the stalemate continues. Of course, Donald Trump has called Putin a “Genius.”

It boggles the mind to think our leaders were unaware of the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the ability of Iranian drones, anti-ship rockets, mines, and small, swift boats to close it. Yet, here we are.

Both sides claim the stalemate favors them. Only one can be right. The U.S. believes its blockade will severely cripple Iran’s economy. No oil going out or goods coming in will cause oil fields to shut down and shortages of everything.

That’s all true, Iranians will suffer. However, so long as an authoritarian regime has all the weapons and continues to live well, the plight of the general population doesn’t matter.

One has only to look at the collapsed economies of Venezuela and Cuba. Millions fled to survive, but the Regime cadres remain in charge and live well. The general population bears the pain, the very ones we should care about. At least that was once our objective. Remember, Trump, telling the Iranians, “We have your back.”

The Iranian people aren’t the only ones feeling increasing pain. Here we are suffering the pain at the pump and other rising prices. Our Gulf friends suffer the same blockades. Other friendly nations are on the verge of shortages.

Given that our midterm election is only months away and few here or abroad like this war, the pressure is building on the administration. The result is that we’re the ones seeking talks to reach an agreement with the current regime.

If there is an agreement, it’s hard to see how it would differ much from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which we negotiated with Iran under President Obama. Donald Trump, after trashing it for years, rescinded the agreement and withdrew the U.S. from it in his first term. Now, like the JCPOA, will Trump accept just a delay in Iran going nuclear?

Did we cause all this pain and expenditure for this kind of outcome? And this may be the best result we can get.

On Monday, April 20th, the government set in motion the process that will ultimately return $166 billion in illegally collected tariffs, plus interest. These levies were the main part of Trump’s economic policy. They upended the trading system the world had operated under for decades, tossing aside previous agreements. President Trump imposed new tariffs, but they might not pass muster either. In any case, they last only 180 days. Only the confusion endures.

President Trump has responded to the requirement to return the money by threatening those who apply to get theirs back. “I’ll remember those who apply.” sounds more mafia than presidential. This attempt at intimidation is worse in many ways than his illegal tariffs.

This kind of thing highlights the problems with top-down or progressive governance. The Boss favors some over others. Cutting deals rather than a level playing field. Already, we’ve seen a spike in exemptions from his tariffs. In a capitalist system, picking winners and losers is a market function, not a ruler’s whim.

So here we are—a stalemated war and billions of illegal taxes returned with interest. The two policies defining Donald Trump’s second term, the Iran war and massive tariffs, are on display. What have they wrought? Are we, or the world, better off?

No matter where the war and the tariffs go from here, the harm already done may prove difficult, if not impossible, to repair. It takes time to gain trust, but only minutes to lose it. Who in the world trusts us? Canada, the Iranian people, Ukraine, our NATO allies, and on and on? Not only have they lost trust in us, but much of the world no longer even likes us.

To untrustworthy and unlikeable, we can add incompetent. Trump undertook both the war and the tariffs despite obvious problems. Most of the Tariffs on their face looked unconstitutional from the start. The Court of International Trade confirmed this shortly after Trump imposed the tariffs.

Yet the administration pressed on, promising that continuing them would cause little harm if it lost on appeal, claiming that refunds are easy to issue. The administration lost and now admits it lied to the court about the difficulty of the refunds. It took until this week, under a judge’s prodding, to start the refund process.

Why should the courts or businesses trust the government in the future when it acts in such a high-handed way? Rather than worrying about their markets, currying favor with the President is at the top of businesspeople’s plans. With the courts considering the new tariffs, we’ll see their reaction.

Our failure in Iran is evident to all. Where is America’s competence? The world will adjust, but not to our benefit. I was in favor of action against Iran with the aim of real regime change. Given that nation’s weakened state, we may never get a better chance. The ruling regime’s slaughtering its own people added moral imperative.

Now we see no plan for regime change, only threats that would make the plight of the Iranian people even worse. Maybe we will wake up tomorrow and find a better plan resulting in real regime change. If so, I’ll be the first to cheer, but I’m not holding my breath.