Forgoing his son’s wedding, President Trump is in Washington promising to inform us of a decisive next move in the Iranian War. With the “ceasefire in effect for about a month, at the beginning of May, the Wall Street Journal editorialized that the administration must successfully finish the War. I agreed, but in an unpublished letter to the editor, I pointed out the changes needed, or we would fail:

To: WSJ letters to the editor

      Trump’s resolve on Iran at 60 Days.”

       The Journal’s editorial board is correct in stating that Trump’s abandonment of the War is unpalatable. However, this ignores the elephant in the room: the failure, from the start, to set clear goals, develop a strategy, and equip the military with the tools to achieve them. We attacked without the ‘why’ and ‘how’ being determined. We failed to anticipate the enemy’s likely countermeasures. Closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the widespread use of drones and rockets against our friends and us, weren’t anticipated and countered. Our lack of offensive and defensive drone capacity, or even of mine sweeping, shows a lack of real preparation.  

If we fail to rectify these shortcomings, dragging out an unfocused war will end with the same untrustworthy fanatics in control in Iran. The taste of defeat and humiliation will not only remain foul but will be much more costly.

It will likely take replacing the current ineffective military command with new, knowledgeable, and imaginative leadership to put a workable plan into action. With help from others, such as Ukraine and the Kurds, to fill in the gaps, there is still time to win this War, but not without recognizing how we went wrong in the first place.  Dave Davis, Phoenix, AZ 

If Trump decides to escalate from here, what visible signs will there be to hope for success? Some indication of armed revolt or turning of existing military units within Iran. Bombing and the blockade by themselves don’t directly threaten the ruling Iranian Regime. One has only to look at Cuba, where the people are living with next to nothing, and still the communists are in charge. The people can’t shoot back.

Conversely, a successful armed uprising is an existential threat. The Revolutionary Guard Corps. (IRGC) has no choice but to divert troops and resources to quickly suppress the uprising or ultimately face being crushed. However, moving to contain the revolt exposes the IRGC to the overwhelming U.S. and Israeli air power.

Any movement of forces and resources away from the Gulf of Hormuz makes its opening easier. Combining the rebellion with a flood of drones covering the Iranian areas near the Strait precludes action against ships traversing an open passage. Defensive drones enhance our ability to defeat those that the IRGC still has. Continuous attacks on manufacturing facilities reduce the Regime’s ability to respond.

Facing an expanding armed revolt and losing control of the Strait leaves the Regime in a bleak place. Contrast this outlook with their present circumstances. Control of the Strait, with no threat to their hold on power. Rather than running out of cash to pay the guard, it’s been receiving billions in crypto. If we resume the fighting without the changes, our Gulf allies will face attack. The Houthis in Yemen could exacerbate the pain by closing the Red Sea. In short, the Regime has cards to play.

My fear is that we’re not seeing any signs of an armed revolt. As I’ve said before, the Kurdish and Aseri areas looked most promising, but if we found the Baloch more amenable, or some switchable army officers, that could also work. The semi-nomadic tribesmen are closer to our fleet, but so far, nada.

The Ukraine War is the real-time video of how drones have changed warfare. Now in its fourth year, the Ukrainians are at the forefront of state-of-the-art technology and have offered to share this knowledge with us. The question is: have we been listening and learning? Instead of the large number of needed drones ready to attack and defend when we started the War, we were found sorely lacking.

The best info on drones I’ve found is we’ve woken up to our embarrassing deficit, but large numbers aren’t due to next year. We’ve had four months of War to rectify the situation. Staring years ago should’ve been a top priority. Compare our response with how fast Ukraine has acted on drones.

If we see armed revolutionaries and masses of U.S. drones, it is probably evidence of fresh thinking and increased energy in our military command. It still doesn’t explain the lack of preparation or purpose in the beginning. Still, at least we now have a workable strategy.

The fear is that we will destroy Iran’s infrastructure, while our blockade denies the people essential goods. We inflict massive pain, but it’s felt by the people whose family members took to the streets in protest and were mowed down. We only add to their anguish. Is this how Trump has their back?

Worse would be what both the Wall Street Journal and I feared most, a U.S. flake-out by signing a “peace deal” with the present Iranian Regime, akin to the one the Obama administration negotiated. This action would leave those who looked to us for support finding only Taco Trump (Trump always chickens out). Our standing in the world diminished worse than Biden’s disastrous Afghan withdrawal. Yet it seems our president is the one begging for a way out of his War. Every other day, Trump tells us it’s peace in our time. Just heard of a new one as I write. What kind of peace is what’s important. Does the president understand this?

For The Nation and Trump’s legacy, there is no substitute for victory.