Trump vs. Trump?

Recent events have added credibility to some of my posts. Not long ago, I cautioned that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) series of interest rate cuts might be at odds with the actual inflation outlook. The Biden spending spree adds to our high national debt, while the Social Security (S.S.) Trust Fund runs dry at best in ten years, with both parties adding to the program woes. Medicare may be in even worse shape.

Biden’s proposals will increase S.S. payouts to government retirees, and with Trump’s plan not to tax any S.S. income, retiree checks could face cuts even sooner. Maintaining the current level of payments will mean even more government borrowing. Already expected to lend trillions more, bond buyers must absorb more extensive offerings in the future. In the face of increasing interest rate risk, they’ll want more upfront.

The first chart is the inflation rate, showing it is still above the 2 % target:

This chart shows the Fed’s interest rate cuts:

While the U.S. 10yr Bond interest rate returned to near its highs:

Mortgage rates stay high:

This week, the Fed cut short-term rates another quarter point but said it would probably cut two times next year instead of the signaled four. The Dow dropped over 1,100 points. Confusion is the only explanation.

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A Look On The Bright Side

As we approach the white house return of Donald Trump, there seem to be two distinct views of what it portends. On the left, it means a mass roundup of illegals and their placement in concentration camps awaiting export—the economy in shreds without adequate labor. Inflation is roaring upward, fed by tariffs and rising prices. Tax cuts add to the flames by producing huge deficits. The resulting high interest rates put homes and much else out of reach.

Inequity will rise, with Trump’s billionaire friends growing richer while the rest of us fall further behind. Efforts to make businesses and institutions more diverse and inclusive are stalled or reversed. According to Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, instead of a progressive, forward-looking society, we’ll be in the hands of the backward-looking “regressivists.”

Ukraine turned over to Russia’s tender mercies while our former friends and allies abandoned us. Belittled by Trump and harmed by his high tariffs, they retaliate, plunging the world into a deeper recession and raising the danger of World War III. Trump claims dictator powers.

While Gaetz withdrew from consideration as Attorney General, others nominated, such as Pete Hegseth for Defense, Robert Kennedy Jr. at Health and Human Services, and Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, confirm the left’s fears that inexperienced extremists will run the government.

In fear of these horrible outcomes, blue states are checking their resistance options. The governor of California has even called for a special session of the state legislature to raise funds for legal action. Others are seeking ways not to cooperate with or impede the federal government.

For those looking at it from this progressive point of view, the future looks bleak. However, the landscape might be more favorable for success from a right-of-center perspective.

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Mirror Mirror

We’ve seen this movie before, or at least something similar. Trump uses his gut feeling to pick those he would support in certain situations. Top of the list of qualifications is loyalty to him. Whether they are up to the job is quite secondary. Gazing at the fawning chosen is like looking in the mirror; the more they ape him, the more he sees himself. The reflection, of course, pleases him. A narcissist likes nothing better than himself.

I’ve pointed all this out before. Who can forget those Trump-backed candidates who used his blessing to edge out people who could win in the primaries only to flame out in the general elections? Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz, Blake Masters, Karri Lake, Doug Maestriano, etc.

Losing winnable contests had dire consequences. Trump put himself first, rather than his party and, if he thought about it, the country, resulting in legislation and actions that brought us inflation and an open border. Control of the Senate in the Biden administration could’ve blunted his leftward lurch.

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And So It Begins

Like many others, I’m still in a quandary after the election. While the media gushed over how Kamala Harris is a great candidate, her history said the opposite. The election confirmed what most already knew: she was awful.  

Of the seven battleground states, six also had high-profile senate races. Democrats won five out of the six, even though Trump swept those states. This outcome shows people were willing to split their ticket to vote for a Senate Democrat. Maybe some didn’t vote for Harris or Trump. It shows it wasn’t Democrats per se that people didn’t like; it was Kamala Harris. The question remains: why trade the declining Biden for the dead weight of the vice president?

It may surprise some, but Trump plans to fulfill his campaign promises. All the people he has appointed are loyal to him and his agenda. This realization inspires fear and joy, depending on where you stand on the issues. I’m experiencing one and the other.

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Almost Over

We’re approaching the end of the strangest election season of my lifetime, and I’ve been around a long time. The majority of Americans would never pick either of the presidential candidates. One of which they never even had a chance to express themselves. One bad debate and the powers in the Democratic Party dumped a sitting president and appointed a new candidate. Why spend all that money and time on primaries, when you can just anoint someone who never won a single primary vote?

The other candidate won the nomination because the Democrats kept him in the limelight with constant lawfare. The cases were so bad they made Trump an object of Republisn sympathy, while preventing others having any space. As I have pointed out, the Democrats picked their opposition.

Instead of a thorough discussion of all our pressing problems, we get superficial jabs about the border, the economy, and abortion. Wars abroad continue to expand, a budgetary meltdown gets closer, and our kids fall further behind without any plans offered by the candidates.

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