The Middle East

Minority Positions Won’t Win

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

We finally bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. Without opposition, the Israelis and then the U.S. hit the major sites. At this point, we don’t know the extent of the damage. An earlier leaked assessment said it might have only set the program back for a few months, while others have said it had done such damage that Iran will need years to get back on track. Without people on the ground, a definitive answer is impossible, but if and when Israel goes in again, it will tell us what the nation at existential risk has determined.

A decade ago, I proposed bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. If they revive the program, we should strike back. Living in a real version of the Myth of Sisyphus, the Mullahs would eventually tire of pushing the boulder up the mountain, only to start again. So long as Israel controls the skies over Iran, follow-up attacks will take place as needed. It was a good plan then, and it remains so now.

Stopping religious fanatics from possessing weapons of mass destruction removes a grave threat not only to Israel but also from Iran’s long-range missile development to everyone else on Earth. If we denied North Korea and Pakistan nuclear weapons, we’d all sleep better. Iran is much scarier—every day, it’s death to America and death to Israel, and they mean it.

One might think we’d have a national sigh of relief, knowing Iran isn’t about to have nuclear warheads topping Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) aimed at us, but some aren’t cheering. Some Democratic leaders alluded to the leaked study.

The information is preliminary and labeled as having low confidence. Yet, the left-leaning legacy media pounced on it and spread it far and wide. Instead of lauding our military for its work, publicizing a possible Trump failure took precedence. Democratic politicians joined in.

This response seems to reinforce the perception of an anti-Israel bias by the left in its conflict with Iran. Support for pro-Hamas, an Iranian ally, and protesters who harassed Jews by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party indicates the left is anti-Semitic.

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Trump Can Do Better

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

Donald Trump often sees problems, but as someone who spends little time on in-depth analysis, he comes up with questionable solutions. One example is his suggestion that Jordan and Egypt take in Gazans to ease reconstruction efforts. The two nations immediately shot down the idea, and it isn’t hard to see why. Jordan already has more Palestinian refugees than native citizens. Returning to “Black September” in 1970, their presence has been problematic. They’re not about to add to a problem they never wanted in the first place.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gained his position by disposing of the previous Muslim Brotherhood government. Hamas, which governs the Gazans, is an outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch. The last thing he wants is to strengthen the Brotherhood’s numbers in his country.  

Trump should’ve known all this and avoided the negative blowback. Still, the president isn’t wrong to wonder, as a builder himself, how you can build a viable Gaza in place of the existing rubble when overrun with 2,000,000 displaced people in just 141 square miles. Gaza was overpopulated and under-employed before the war. Now, the situation is infinitely worse.

Considering Gaza’s makeup, I offered my “Solution for Gaza” posts. Rather than a full-scale invasion, designate areas to be leveled by explosives, inform everyone to leave, then blow them up. Working towards the sea and away from the Israeli border, food and other supplies are landed on the shore by ship. The ships are then required to take women, children, and infirm to safety in accepting countries. If the Arab world and other countries are concerned about these Palestinians, let them show it. International aid now supporting the Gazans would follow them, so there was little if any, increase in cost.

People were horrified, claiming it would level and depopulate Gaza. Looking at things now, with Gaza a pile of rubble and the number of women and children killed, the plan seems a lot better than what has happened.

I never thought the destruction and shipping of refugees would go on for very long before Hamas would give in. Faced with a slow but relentless low-cost action, Hamas couldn’t wait for the last Gazan civilian shipped out of a leveled Gaza. Pressure from other Arab countries faced with accepting Palestinian refugees would leave Hamas little choice.

Even though the situation is different now, with Gaza destroyed, few Gazans have left. We have to understand why there were so many Gazans. In 1948, 7000,000 Arabs fled the new nation of Israel, mainly at the urging of the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem. The U.N. established the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNWRA) 1949 to aid them. The agency set up numerous camps ringing Israel:

Why did the U.N. feel it was necessary to create a new refugee agency when the International Refugee Organization (IRO) had existed since World War II and was doing great work in resettlement? This group evolved into the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the primary vehicle for caring for and resettling refugees worldwide. It has accomplished the resettlement of tens of thousands of refugees annually.

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Donald the Great?

Dave Davis Policy, The Long Journey to "More", The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

Having already written about some things to look for in the New Year, I’d like to take a new approach. Donald Trump’s talk about making Canafda the 51st state, buying Greenland, and repossessing the Panama Canal caused me to think of how leaders who see themselves as bigger than life seem focused on the past rather than charting a future that benefits those they lead.

Our major adversaries, Russia, Iran, and China, are centered on recreating old empires. Turkey may be poised to join this group. Putin in Russia regrets the loss of the Empire, created through centuries of Russian expansion culminating in the vast Soviet Empire, which collapsed under Cold War pressure. Setting up stooges in some adjoining territories and continuing to attack Ukraine, the Russian strongman is expending blood and treasure on a grand scale to reestablish the Empire.

The Histories of Empires from the Persian through the Sasanian, centered in Iran, fuel the Mullahs’ desire to widen their reach across the Middle East. They may, as Shites, even see themselves as rightful ones to bring back the Moslem Empire of the early caliphs.

No nation has a more extended History of Empire than China, going at least back to the Shang Dynasty (221 B.C.). Before the communists, the Ming Dynasty (1368 to 1644) was the last to attempt expansion, sending fleets and armies to gain control of both the land and maritime Silk Roads. However, reversals such as the Tummu crisis caused China to look inward. While Chinese fleets reached the east coast of Africa in the 15th century, they never rounded the Cape of Good Hope. Later in the century, the Portuguese did, and the direction of the history of the world changed. I covered this outcome in my “The 15th Century Came and nothing would ever be the same” post in “The Long Journey to More” series.

Xi Jinping seems intent on succeeding where the Ming Dynasty failed. His Belt & Road Initiative intends to recreate the land and maritime Silk Roads under Chinese control.

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Trump vs. Trump?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

Recent events have added credibility to some of my posts. Not long ago, I cautioned that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) series of interest rate cuts might be at odds with the actual inflation outlook. The Biden spending spree adds to our high national debt, while the Social Security (S.S.) Trust Fund runs dry at best in ten years, with both parties adding to the program woes. Medicare may be in even worse shape.

Biden’s proposals will increase S.S. payouts to government retirees, and with Trump’s plan not to tax any S.S. income, retiree checks could face cuts even sooner. Maintaining the current level of payments will mean even more government borrowing. Already expected to lend trillions more, bond buyers must absorb more extensive offerings in the future. In the face of increasing interest rate risk, they’ll want more upfront.

The first chart is the inflation rate, showing it is still above the 2 % target:

This chart shows the Fed’s interest rate cuts:

While the U.S. 10yr Bond interest rate returned to near its highs:

Mortgage rates stay high:

This week, the Fed cut short-term rates another quarter point but said it would probably cut two times next year instead of the signaled four. The Dow dropped over 1,100 points. Confusion is the only explanation.

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Are Things Getting Even Stranger?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East , , , ,

I’ve reached a point where I realize the administration and its media heralds’ approach to the Gaza War has reached the same state of incoherence as their actions in Afghanistan and Ukraine. After a promising start, the former ended in catastrophe, and the latter is headed in the same direction. 

They demand Israel institute a civilian Gazan government before the war is over. Imagine attempting this approach in Nazi Germany while a good part of the Wehrmacht is still intact. The idea of Mahmoud Abbas stepping in to rule the strip is laughable. The Gazans chased his Fatah-ruled Palestinian Authority out shortly after the Israelis left Gaza in 2005.

Producing a reformed, newly constituted Palestinian Authority, even if possible, would take considerable time. Who would rule until then? A coalition of Arab states? How long would that take?

Even if you put some government in place, how would it enforce its rules? Hamas still has an estimated ten to twenty thousand heavily armed fighters. Where are the police or troops going to come from to stop Hamas from continuing to attack Israel or take over the new government?

The U.S. Army recommends 20-25 counterinsurgents to every 1,000 residents. The Gaza population of around 2 million requires 40,000 troops to suppress an armed insurrection. Exactly where are these troops coming from to duke it out with Hamas? Israel isn’t about to accept a Palestinian force of that size. The vast majority of Palestinians support Hamas’s October 7 attack. Such a force might join forces with Hamas and attack Israel. 

Has anyone heard from any Arab nations volunteering substantial military? Even if they did, would they take on a heavily armed opponent?

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