Commentary

Maybe Not So Wrong

Dave Davis Commentary, Uncategorized

Back in April 2015 in our post ALL IN THE PLAN? we theorized President Obama’s justice department would sideline Hillary Clinton and a weaker candidate would go on to lose the 2016 presidential election. This would leave the party in a favorable state for the Obamas. Michelle would go on to become governor of Illinois, putting her on a launching pad for the Democratic 2020 nomination. However, James Comey first wounded Hillary but didn’t prevent her nomination and then mightily contributed to her defeat in the general election but reopening the investigation just before the election. We gave our take on all this at the time in our post Election Recap. . In any case, the Democratic candidate lost.

Meanwhile, even with an unpopular Republican governor in a deep blue state, the state’s problems were so acute it was seen as “the sick man of the Midwest.”  A superhero couldn’t fix this state. Faced with the likelihood of being tarred with failure, the Obamas wisely decided to stay in D.C. far from the Illinois political cesspool.

Looks like we really got this one wrong.  Well, maybe we got some details of the path wrong but maybe not the ultimate result. The point of our post was Obama’s return to the White House.  If anything we think it will be even easier than we thought.  As we pointed out in our earlier post, the Democratic party was starved and neglected during the Obama presidency and has only has started to be recovered with the 2014 midterms.  Not enough time to produce a really top rate group of candidates. The lack of governorships hurt because executive experience is highly valued in a candidate for the nation’s top executive position.  Worse, the perception Trumps election was a fluke and anyone could beat him has brought forth old warhorses and a plethora of uninspiring younger candidates.  For example the 37yr old Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg is doing better in the polls than most of the younger contingent even though his only executive experience is as mayor of a very small moribund city.  Sitting in Phoenix, Az, we’re surrounded by vibrant small cities such as Scottsdale, Tempe, and Chandler, all much larger and growing.  Yet no one would even think of any of the mayors of these much more successful cities as presidential contenders. The Democrats have brought forth a legion of minimal candidates.

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He Cant Be Serious

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized

President Trump again has put a wide swath of the establishment types in a state of fear for another of our “venerable” institutions.  What could he be thinking?  Steven Moore and  horrors Herman Cain considered for the Federal Reserve Board?  Why they don’t even have a PHD among them. Worse he is playing politics with appointment by selecting people generally agreeing with him on economic policy.  They see the  Fed as a revered independent agency led by highly educated elites delivering stable money and full employment from on high.  Contamination with these two louts will taint this wonderful institution with mediocrity possibly leading to failure. We have trouble in River City.

Before everyone hyperventilates, remember we’re talking about the Federal Reserve.  You know, the people not having a clue the “Great Recession” was on the horizon.  The ones by keeping interest rates so low it forced people in need of returns worldwide to buy riskier instruments such as the Collaterized Mortgage Obligations containing the subprime mortgages. That rocked the world economy.  Even when they woke up, their answer was to buy trillions of dollars worth of debt with newly created money driving interest rates near zero.  The result was the slowest recovery ever recorded after any recession or depression.  This even with  Obama’s near trillion-dollar stimulus.  At best the Fed has a hit or miss record since its inception.  We warned of the continuing destabilization of  the economy if interest rates continue below normal in our post Free Capital to Finance “More” in our series “The long Journey to More.”  The Fed never seems to be aware of the bubbles it creates till they burst.

Tightening or loosening the money supply at the wrong time may actually have happened more often than they got it right. As Milton Friedman put it, “No major institution in the US has so poor a record of performance over so long a period as the Federal Reserve, yet so high a public reputation.”  And this was said before  its “Great Recession” failures.  It would seem this is an organization in clear need of fresh ideas to achieve positive performance.

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One Way Howard Schultz Could Actually Become President

Dave Davis Commentary, The Future Party

Watching a cable news interview with a major university president, we were struck by the fact he was talking not about he might do to reduce the cost of a college education and the attending debt burden, but what he actually had done.  Expounding on his article that recently appeared in the Washington Post where he is a contributor, he outlined what in point of fact how is has reduced costs.  At a time when college costs are rising at a rate far in excess of the general rate of inflation, since he became President in 2013 his university has seen no rise in tuition and other costs such as text books have been successfully attacked.  Innovative ways for students to get a college education without incurring heavy debt have been introduced. Wow, somebody telling you what he’s actually done about a major problem rather than talking pie in sky.

In the fashion of cable news, after University President’s interview was over and he was gone, two commentators, one from the left and one from the right joined the host to discuss what was said. What impressed us was instead of the normal loud disagreement that seems to come with the job of cable news commentator, both were surprisingly positive about what they heard. One might think the commentator on the right might look in  askance of an academic Washington Post Contributor, but on the other hand the one from the left might be unenthusiastic over a known Republican. Yet with some tangible ideas to think and talk about, both admiringly considered how these actions could be expanded upon.  Real solutions seem to bring a certain consensus.

Who is this University President who elicits such a positive response?  That would be Mitch Daniels, the President of Purdue University.  It would not come as a surprise to those acquainted with him to be seen as a problem solver.  A successful two term Indiana Governor, a top  Fortune Five hundred company executive, Director of the Office of Management and Budget under George w. Bush, Think Tank Head and author all point to a man who solves problems.

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Pills Shouldn’t be Bitter

Dave Davis Commentary, Dave's Healthcare Plan, Policy, Uncategorized

High Drug prices have been the subject of endless news stories. Politicians are railing against greedy “Big Pharma.”  It is hardly surprising people ask , “what does Dave’s Plan do to control drug prices if anything?”  They note the subject isn’t specifically mentioned. That’s true , but only because medicine is an integral part of healthcare not something apart.  One of the basic tenets of”Dave’s Plan” is to make the vast majority of healthcare transactions for cash by individuals.  Today the incomprehensible 3rd party maze of  drug companies, pharmacy-benefit managers (PBMs), discounts, rebates and insurance companies have resulted in Americans in many cases are paying much more for patented and other drugs than they should.  Yet Americans also have the most access to the advanced and in many cases life saving drugs in the world which of course is the real meaning of medicine.  After all, leaches may be cheap but are hardly crest of the medical wave. So what is the best way to balance price and the best medicines.  Scott W. Atlas of the Hoover Institution writing in the Wall Street Journal asked “so how can policy makers bring drug prices down?  By empowering consumers not insurers  or other intermediaries.”  That is exactly what Dave’s Plan does by allowing transactions to be made at the first dollar for cash.

We know this works even today.  With deductibles getting ever higher, shopping around can mean real savings.  Use pricing apps such as GoodRX.com or RXSaver.  Shop online at Blink Health.com or HealthWarehouse.com. Rather than using your insurance, just asking what the drug price would be if you pay cash at the pharmacy might result in major savings. New rules allow pharmacists to quot e direct prices,but only if you ask. If cash does better in many cases now, imagine what the price pressure would be from virtually all Americans paying cash and looking for the best deal? Could Amazon, Walmart or new entrants ignore such a vast market? That would be the case under Dave’s Plan.

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Howard Small

Dave Davis Commentary, Dave's Healthcare Plan, The Future Party, Uncategorized

Howard Schultz is on the verge of running for president as an independent.  The billionaire former Starbucks’s chief surely has the money to self finance a run, but we think this would be going small.  His reasons for making a run outside the Democratic party center on the party’s inability to face reality.   Entitlements about to swallow the national budget with  huge deficits as far as the eye can see if left unaddressed The hot ideas in the party are Medicare for All, free college tuition and a guaranteed job and/or income for all among other expensive things. As a successful businessperson, he asks the simple question, how do we pay for all this?  The answer given is “make the rich pay their fair share.”  While Mr. Schultz might be willing to pay more in taxes, he is well aware a 70%+ top bracket and/or a wealth tax wouldn’t come close to covering all this but it would do irreparable harm. Obviously, he concluded there was no way forward for a candidate for the Democratic nomination who throws cold water on the party’s fantasies.  We came to the same conclusion about both major parties, so even though we don’t agree with him on every issue, we applaud his courage in facing the facts. However, we question a singular independent run is the way to go.

An independent run to our mind is a small solution probably doomed to costly failure.  In essence he would be running in a party of one. That’s why we proposed a new party. We laid this out in our series on”The Future Party” on this Blog.  The people actually building the party would pick the delegates to the conventions and they would  determine the candidates and platforms. Across the country there are people from both parties being forced out  by those on the extremes.  For instance, take Arizona where the Republican elected Kelli Ward a total Trump partisan twice overwhelmingly rejected  by Republican voters in runs for the senate to the Party’s  chairperson.  A state John McCain won handily numerous times has no room in the Republican party for his supporters.  This has been repeated across  the country in both major parties. These homeless are more informed, moderate and realistic than those that have replaced them.  They feel just as orphaned as Howard Schultz but they’re party workers looking for their party not a one-off.  Howard Schultz is going to spend a fortune establishing an organization in every state.  After all, if he can’t get on the ballot in almost every  state he as no chance to win. Even if he wins, he’ll be alone in Washington in a sea of Democrats and /Republicans.  What will he accomplish?  If he loses it all goes away probably without a trace.

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