Maybe Not So Wrong

Back in April 2015 in our post ALL IN THE PLAN? we theorized President Obama’s justice department would sideline Hillary Clinton and a weaker candidate would go on to lose the 2016 presidential election. This would leave the party in a favorable state for the Obamas. Michelle would go on to become governor of Illinois, putting her on a launching pad for the Democratic 2020 nomination. However, James Comey first wounded Hillary but didn’t prevent her nomination and then mightily contributed to her defeat in the general election but reopening the investigation just before the election. We gave our take on all this at the time in our post Election Recap. . In any case, the Democratic candidate lost.

Meanwhile, even with an unpopular Republican governor in a deep blue state, the state’s problems were so acute it was seen as “the sick man of the Midwest.”  A superhero couldn’t fix this state. Faced with the likelihood of being tarred with failure, the Obamas wisely decided to stay in D.C. far from the Illinois political cesspool.

Looks like we really got this one wrong.  Well, maybe we got some details of the path wrong but maybe not the ultimate result. The point of our post was Obama’s return to the White House.  If anything we think it will be even easier than we thought.  As we pointed out in our earlier post, the Democratic party was starved and neglected during the Obama presidency and has only has started to be recovered with the 2014 midterms.  Not enough time to produce a really top rate group of candidates. The lack of governorships hurt because executive experience is highly valued in a candidate for the nation’s top executive position.  Worse, the perception Trumps election was a fluke and anyone could beat him has brought forth old warhorses and a plethora of uninspiring younger candidates.  For example the 37yr old Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg is doing better in the polls than most of the younger contingent even though his only executive experience is as mayor of a very small moribund city.  Sitting in Phoenix, Az, we’re surrounded by vibrant small cities such as Scottsdale, Tempe, and Chandler, all much larger and growing.  Yet no one would even think of any of the mayors of these much more successful cities as presidential contenders. The Democrats have brought forth a legion of minimal candidates.

To make matter worse, the Democrats, unlike the Republicans, have limited winner take all primaries.  This can’t help but disburse the delegates widely among the numerous contenders.  Worse this time the Democratic invention, Super Delegates can only vote after the first ballot.  All this makes a hung convention not only possible but likely.  Faced with blood all over the convention floor. one can already hear the cries of Michelle, Michelle , Michelle rising to the rafters.

But Michelle Obama says she isn’t interested in running.  Well running no but crowned yes.  She crisscrossed the country promoting her mega best seller (over 10 million copies sold, eat your heart out Hillary) keeping her in public view while showing off her popularity. Millions of people don’t buy and read your book if they unless they really like you. Anyway, a couple building a memorial to themselves in Chicago’s famous Grant Park rather than a normal Presidential Library isn’t the type vainglorious individuals to remain far from power for long. Compared to the other contenders, they’re just in their prime. Given today’s odds, this could be a great bet. You can thank us later.

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