Back in March of 2023, I questioned in the post “Out of the Jaws” whether Ukraine could ever win its war with the Russian invader without the ability to shoot back. Though the Ukrainians had halted the invasion, they could never win if they couldn’t hit back at the Russian war machine’s homeland infrastructure. While the Russians hammered every military or civilian target they could, the Biden administration allowed the use of U.S. weapons only close to the battlefield. Only in 2024, in response to Russia’s use of North Korean troops, did it slightly extend the range.

Russian territory was largely exempt. Biden reasoned it was best to limit the scope of the war. Fearing that hits on Moscow or St Petersburg like those on Kyiv, the Russians might use nuclear weapons or attack NATO nations. As unlikely as either of these Russian reactions is, the Biden Administration must have believed in them, as they slow-walked arms to Ukraine.

This policy led the Biden administration to push Ukraine into an ill-fated offensive without air superiority or the longer-range weapons Ukrainians had requested. Without the means to cut off supplies to the well-dug-in Russians, the attack was doomed before it even started.

The U.S. military doctrine says it must have air superiority before a major offensive, yet where were the F-16s the Ukrainians asked for?

Things didn’t improve under Trump. While keeping many of the range restrictions in place, his administration taunted Ukrainian President Zelensky, saying he had no cards and should give in to Russian demands. It never seemed to dawn on them that Ukraine might have cards, but the U.S. prevented them from playing them.

If Russians felt no pain at home, they had little reason to oppose the war. Yes, troops were maimed or dying, but drafted from rural areas, criminals, or recruited foreigners; the horror of war didn’t touch Russian elites. Life in Moscow or St. Petersburg went on as usual—some inflation, but nothing aimed at them.

Instead of folding, the brave Ukrainians fought on. The same imagination and ingenuity that stopped the initial massive Russian attack, the Ukrainians applied to the modern battlefield. High-tech is increasingly used to gain an edge, especially in the new drone warfare. Rapidly updating design, software, command, and tactics, allowing them to blunt the Russian manpower and equipment advantage.

If the U.S. wasn’t going to provide the longer-range weapons sorely needed to isolate the battlefield and attack Russia’s war infrastructure deep in that vast nation, Russia lacked any incentive to make peace. Yet, when asked, the U.S. turned down Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk long-range missiles.

It was left up to the Ukrainians to develop the weapons they needed. These freedom-loving people rose to the challenge, especially with long-range drones. Residents in Moscow and St. Petersburg find themselves treated to towering smoke plumes rising from their major oil facilities;

If that didn’t hit home, waiting in long gas lines to fill up probably made the pain of war real:  

Crimea, once the crown jewel of Russian aggression, is increasingly isolated and under constant attack. Instead of being a great advantage, Russia’s vastness now gives Ukrainians a wide range of targets to defend against. Already targeted, Umal in the Arctic and Omsk in the Urals:

Even with government control of media, the Russian people, and even their military, realize the Russian offensives have gone nowhere, while they face increasing challenges. More and more, the world sees that it’s Putin who has run out of cards to play.

The one unseemly support the Russian dictator has been able to count on is Trump’s well-known reluctance to aid Ukraine. No long-range weapons, coupled with only providing weapons that the Europeans pay hard cash for, attest to our President’s dim view of Ukraine and its President. This position was made absolutely clear to Zelensky at the White House by both our President and Vice President.

The changed circumstances of the war in Ukraine have put Trump in a strange spot. His poorly planned war on Iran has left the U.S. and its allies short of missile interceptors. Ukraine, down the list of our missile recipients, is left open to massive drone and missile attacks, mostly on civilian areas. How did our military brain trust fail to realize we’d need lots more Patriot missiles and such if we attacked Iran?

Starving Ukraine of needed defensive weaponry, resulting in civilian deaths, isn’t a good look for an administration already appearing incompetent on the Iran front. Instead of continuing to be seen as Putin’s buddy, it might occur to Trump that his legacy might look better as a supporter of the courageous Ukrainian David who turned back the Russian Goliath.

We’ll know soon enough if the U.S. licenses Ukraine and others to produce Patriot missiles and routes existing supplies to Kyiv, replacing them with the expanded production. Similarly, license other allies to produce Tomahawks for resale to Ukraine. Top that off with an O.K. for Elon Musk to share data all over Russia with Ukraine from his Starlink satellite system.

These actions will show Putin the handwriting on the wall, and Putin might try to grab the best deal still available, rather than suffer defeat on the battlefield.

Trump could play his desired role of peacemaker, albeit with Ukraine holding the upper hand. If you don’t think Trump will do a 180 on Putin, you just haven’t watched Trump. Who wouldn’t he throw under the bus if it meant saving himself?

An interesting sidelight to the turn of events in Ukraine is where this leaves Vice President Vance. In two years, Trump will be gone, but Vance will go into 2028 as our most important allies’ most disliked man. Being a fly on the wall at a future private meeting between Zelensky and Vance would be very interesting.

The grit and intelligence of the Ukrainians have brought us to the possibility of a major turn in world politics. I’d advise our leadership in Washington to give Ukraine the attention they failed to give to the situation in Iran.