trump

Getting Immigration Right

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

Immigration is a continuing flash point in America, but we rarely look at the facts and data. Emotions have led to deadlock on one of our most important policy questions. Let’s start with what we know:

The more we deport migrants, the sooner we will experience negative population growth. A glance at our social programs reveals the disastrous consequences of this path. Social Security will have to cut benefits by 2033 as things presently stand. With even fewer people supporting our retirees, the system collapses. We’ll need more people to fill jobs in an expanding economy.

Once we understand that our future depends on a growing population, the only question is how to achieve it. More births would be beneficial, but no one has yet found a way to increase births in advanced economies. That leaves immigration. However, this conclusion doesn’t mean throwing the borders open and taking in all comers. Done correctly, immigration can be a win-win proposition.

There are approximately 400,000 to 500,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs in the U.S. as of mid-2025. More than 1 million skilled trades jobs are unfilled, a figure expected to continue growing. The cybersecurity sector is projected to have 3.5 million unfilled positions in 2025. The nursing profession faces significant projected shortages, with approximately 1 million openings predicted for the decade of 2022-2032. These figures inform us that we need more skilled workers.  

Instead of the confusing and ineffective visa programs for skilled workers we have presently, I propose that anyone with skills worldwide can register for clearance. Once approved, authorized individuals can receive a visa at any time in the future.

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Biden Lost It. What About Trump?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

We have experienced what was probably the biggest presidential cover-up in history, with the measures taken to hide Joe Biden’s cognitive decline. These stealth actions resulted in the disastrous Afghan pullout, the highest inflation in forty years, two wars, and an attempt to forgive billions of student loans simply by executive order. Only James Buchanan’s Administration compares in failure.

Now I’m worried we’re seeing a repeat, possibly on a grander scale. Given some of his actions, we have to consider that Donald Trump is increasingly delusional. Compared to the tired and confused Biden, many people will point to Trump’s hyperactivity as proving that old age isn’t affecting him. This conclusion ignores the fact that manic activity itself is a danger sign.

It’s difficult to believe that the people closest to us are unaware of a person’s decline or their personality traits becoming extreme. Just as the Democrats in and out of the white house had to know Biden wasn’t up to the job and getting worse, Republicans and others in the white house and Congress seem to ignore a troubled Trump.

Even with visual knowledge of Biden’s decline, Democrats discouraged anyone else from running for President. Dean Phillips, the only one who mounted a challenge, was ultimately driven from the party. For reasons of personal ambition, misplaced loyalty, a devious plan, or fear of reprisal, Democrats stood with Biden until a disastrous debate made his failing clear to everybody. Could something similar be taking place on the other side?

Tariffs are the centerpiece of the Trump administration, so that’s a good place to start. While not the easiest subject for an average person, it is undoubtedly within the realm of administration experts. Afghanistan seemed far away and wasn’t much on the public’s mind until the situation escalated. Tariffs aren’t easily understood, but they can now harm businesses, disrupt the nation’s finances, and even lead to a Constitutional crisis.

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Justice Delayed

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

Continuing the discussion of how the government can provide the structure for the beneficial interactions of its citizens. One of the significant differences between the government and the private sector is the sense of time. The latter values it, and it’s primary to any planning. The incentives in the public sector are often the reverse. The more time it takes, the more secure their jobs and funding. We need to pinpoint where this attitude impedes commerce and people’s lives, and find ways to get the government on board, whether it likes it or not.

In my last post, I showed how vital a fair legal system is to capitalism and a properly functioning economy. It’s alarming, then, that our court system is a major culprit in preventing us from reaching our potential. Operating at a glacial pace, our courts seem little changed from the 16th-century British courts, except we don’t don wigs.

William E. Gladstone popularized the truism, “Justice delayed is justice denied.” A widely accepted principle, but often ignored in practice, it’s also costly. The current lawsuit, V.O.S. Selections v. Trump, illustrates just how expensive the Administration’s tariffs are. Filed shortly after Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, 2025, the Court of International Trade blocked their implementation on May 28 on grounds that the President exceeded his powers—a timely decision based on seemingly strong grounds, rendered before significant harm.

Given the extent of the damage that improperly levied tariffs would do if left in place, it would seem to a layperson that blocking their implementation until finally adjudicated is sensible.

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Ballroom Or Royal Court

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

While we’re waiting for some possibly momentous news, such as the Israeli Defence Force finally finishing off Hamas in Gaza, a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, and a court ruling on Trump’s Tariffs, it might be a good time to reflect on some rules for leading to better government. A few posts ago, I featured an observation of the poorest performing nations, which were the ones where the state allocated resources and selected winners and losers rather than allowing the market to do the job.

What is the purpose of government other than providing the framework for its citizens to thrive? This structure must begin with the protection of body and property from arbitrary loss. Whether it’s an invader, thieves, or the government itself, you and your property are safe from capricious forces.

One of our great blessings is inheriting the English common law and the principles of representative government. We codified and expanded on these principles. An American citizen can’t be deprived of freedom or property without due process, as enshrined in our Constitution and its amendments, especially the first ten. Rather than a supreme leader doling out favors either directly or through subordinates, people should interact without government interference as much as possible.

These freedoms resulted in heretofore unheard-of economic growth, first in the British Isles, but followed closely by the young United States. The closer other nations emulated these two, the more their people benefited.

If you lack the basics of food, clothing, and shelter, not much else matters. In countries that provide a framework where people are free to choose not only the basics but also much more. (“More” in the sense of my series”The Long Journey to More”) The nations where rulers direct the economy struggle with even the essentials.

Marxists and other progressives claim that the expertise of an elite class can lead us to the promised land. The “best and the brightest,” rather than people interacting, know better. Those comprising the ruling elite live well, but the rest do not. In Cuba, Venezuela, or Argentina, where the state directs the economy, living standards fell.

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Topping Out?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

Could we be at the apex of the second Trump administration? The president is claiming victory on every front. Major trade deals with the E.U. and Japan, among others, were announced, with markets reaching new highs. Everyone is bending a knee to the master of the deal. Everyone knows because Donald Trump is on TV around the clock, telling us how great everything is going. To hear him tell it, there is almost too much winning.

Just under the surface, one can see some big rocks that the Administration is approaching. Both Japan and the E.U. imports are subject to a fifteen percent tariff. This rate seems stiff and protective of our manufacturing industries, such as the automotive sector, but a closer look reveals a different picture.

Reason’s economic and trade writer, Eric Boehm, points out that our domestic carmakers are dependent on inputs from Canada and Mexico, which are subject to a 25 percent levy. Using lower-cost parts and materials, Toyota could build autos completely in Japan, pay the tariff, and still undercut our auto manufacturers. The companies and the auto workers are already complaining about the disadvantage.

71% of Toyota cars sold in the U.S. are made here. This production supports hundreds of thousands of jobs in the U.S. With the price advantages afforded by the agreement to produce in Japan, these jobs are at risk.

If the 15% rate is suitable for Japan to produce at home, the E.U., subject to the same rate, will find itself in a similar position. European auto makers also employ a large number of people in the U.S. The Street put it this way, “The Big 3 now has a similar problem with EU competitors, as their 15% duties pale in comparison to the 25% duties U.S. manufacturers have to pay to get their cars from their Canadian and Mexican plants.” 

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