israel

Hans Christian Andrson Told It Right

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

In my August 1, blog post, I wondered if Donald Trump’s second term was “Topping Out”? The President looked like the King of the Hill. The Stock Market hitting new highs and tariff-induced deals seemed to promise a manufacturing boom that would take us to untold prosperity, or at least that’s what Trump endlessly told us.

The passage of the Great Big Beautiful Bill, which allows businesses to write off capital investments immediately, is expected to contribute to the upcoming boom. Trump trumpeted his imminent settling of the world’s wars. What’s not to like? I warned of shoals ahead. One problem is that Trump has never had Reagan’s widespread appeal:

The cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy is his ability to use tariffs as a bludgeon to extract concessions from the rest of the world and force American businesses to plead their cases on bended knee, some even giving the Government an ownership stake. The world awaited Trump’s next action.

Yet, the majority of the tariffs had already been deemed illegal by two courts. The appeals court has upheld those verdicts, and we’re awaiting the Supreme Court’s final decision after just hearing oral arguments. If the High Court had only wanted to nullify the tariffs imposed under the single subject law, it could have refused to take the case. That action would’ve avoided prolonging the pain while ending most tariffs.

It’s too horrifying to think that the court wants to take the power to tax away from Congress and award it to the President, so it may wish to clarify how narrow the executive power is in this area, defining what actually constitutes an emergency, setting limits as to the time before you have to go to Congress. The bludgeon may become a twig, and Trump’s economic policy, domestic and foreign, evaporates.

While the President has had some success in fostering peace in some places, the two most significant areas of conflict, Israel and Ukraine, have received vastly different responses from Trump.

Both featured an unprovoked attack seeking to destroy these states ultimately. Israel and Ukraine seek to embrace Western values, while Russia and Hamas profess the opposite. Both Ukraine and Israel have waged truly brave and intelligent innovative wars, much to the shock of their enemies. America should know what the right side is to support, given our values.

While Israel has received the utmost Trump administration support, including direct defensive support and the bombing of a common enemy, Iran, the U.S. only provides arms bought and paid for by others and intermittent intelligence to Ukraine. Trump fetes Israel’s Netenyhu, but treats Ukraine’s Zelensky like a pariah.

Given the similarities of the two wars, what accounts for Trump’s differing positions? The administration, and even the special envoys, are mostly the same. The scientific method seeks to isolate and identify a single, distinct factor that explains a phenomenon.

Vice President Vance’s distaste for Ukraine is hardly a secret, given his part in humiliating Zelensky in the Oval Office. His and his supporters’ views dominate the administration of Ukraine policy. The same people are present in discussions of Middle East policy, but with two notable additions: Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, both Orthodox Jews, have also taken part in this area. During the previous Trump administration, they played a significant role in facilitating the Abraham Accords, arguably one of Trump’s most notable foreign policy achievements.

Continue reading →

Minority Positions Won’t Win

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

We finally bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. Without opposition, the Israelis and then the U.S. hit the major sites. At this point, we don’t know the extent of the damage. An earlier leaked assessment said it might have only set the program back for a few months, while others have said it had done such damage that Iran will need years to get back on track. Without people on the ground, a definitive answer is impossible, but if and when Israel goes in again, it will tell us what the nation at existential risk has determined.

A decade ago, I proposed bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. If they revive the program, we should strike back. Living in a real version of the Myth of Sisyphus, the Mullahs would eventually tire of pushing the boulder up the mountain, only to start again. So long as Israel controls the skies over Iran, follow-up attacks will take place as needed. It was a good plan then, and it remains so now.

Stopping religious fanatics from possessing weapons of mass destruction removes a grave threat not only to Israel but also from Iran’s long-range missile development to everyone else on Earth. If we denied North Korea and Pakistan nuclear weapons, we’d all sleep better. Iran is much scarier—every day, it’s death to America and death to Israel, and they mean it.

One might think we’d have a national sigh of relief, knowing Iran isn’t about to have nuclear warheads topping Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) aimed at us, but some aren’t cheering. Some Democratic leaders alluded to the leaked study.

The information is preliminary and labeled as having low confidence. Yet, the left-leaning legacy media pounced on it and spread it far and wide. Instead of lauding our military for its work, publicizing a possible Trump failure took precedence. Democratic politicians joined in.

This response seems to reinforce the perception of an anti-Israel bias by the left in its conflict with Iran. Support for pro-Hamas, an Iranian ally, and protesters who harassed Jews by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party indicates the left is anti-Semitic.

Continue reading →

Trump Can Do Better

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

Donald Trump often sees problems, but as someone who spends little time on in-depth analysis, he comes up with questionable solutions. One example is his suggestion that Jordan and Egypt take in Gazans to ease reconstruction efforts. The two nations immediately shot down the idea, and it isn’t hard to see why. Jordan already has more Palestinian refugees than native citizens. Returning to “Black September” in 1970, their presence has been problematic. They’re not about to add to a problem they never wanted in the first place.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gained his position by disposing of the previous Muslim Brotherhood government. Hamas, which governs the Gazans, is an outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch. The last thing he wants is to strengthen the Brotherhood’s numbers in his country.  

Trump should’ve known all this and avoided the negative blowback. Still, the president isn’t wrong to wonder, as a builder himself, how you can build a viable Gaza in place of the existing rubble when overrun with 2,000,000 displaced people in just 141 square miles. Gaza was overpopulated and under-employed before the war. Now, the situation is infinitely worse.

Considering Gaza’s makeup, I offered my “Solution for Gaza” posts. Rather than a full-scale invasion, designate areas to be leveled by explosives, inform everyone to leave, then blow them up. Working towards the sea and away from the Israeli border, food and other supplies are landed on the shore by ship. The ships are then required to take women, children, and infirm to safety in accepting countries. If the Arab world and other countries are concerned about these Palestinians, let them show it. International aid now supporting the Gazans would follow them, so there was little if any, increase in cost.

People were horrified, claiming it would level and depopulate Gaza. Looking at things now, with Gaza a pile of rubble and the number of women and children killed, the plan seems a lot better than what has happened.

I never thought the destruction and shipping of refugees would go on for very long before Hamas would give in. Faced with a slow but relentless low-cost action, Hamas couldn’t wait for the last Gazan civilian shipped out of a leveled Gaza. Pressure from other Arab countries faced with accepting Palestinian refugees would leave Hamas little choice.

Even though the situation is different now, with Gaza destroyed, few Gazans have left. We have to understand why there were so many Gazans. In 1948, 7000,000 Arabs fled the new nation of Israel, mainly at the urging of the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem. The U.N. established the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNWRA) 1949 to aid them. The agency set up numerous camps ringing Israel:

Why did the U.N. feel it was necessary to create a new refugee agency when the International Refugee Organization (IRO) had existed since World War II and was doing great work in resettlement? This group evolved into the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the primary vehicle for caring for and resettling refugees worldwide. It has accomplished the resettlement of tens of thousands of refugees annually.

Continue reading →

Trump vs. Trump?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Middle East, Uncategorized , , , ,

Recent events have added credibility to some of my posts. Not long ago, I cautioned that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) series of interest rate cuts might be at odds with the actual inflation outlook. The Biden spending spree adds to our high national debt, while the Social Security (S.S.) Trust Fund runs dry at best in ten years, with both parties adding to the program woes. Medicare may be in even worse shape.

Biden’s proposals will increase S.S. payouts to government retirees, and with Trump’s plan not to tax any S.S. income, retiree checks could face cuts even sooner. Maintaining the current level of payments will mean even more government borrowing. Already expected to lend trillions more, bond buyers must absorb more extensive offerings in the future. In the face of increasing interest rate risk, they’ll want more upfront.

The first chart is the inflation rate, showing it is still above the 2 % target:

This chart shows the Fed’s interest rate cuts:

While the U.S. 10yr Bond interest rate returned to near its highs:

Mortgage rates stay high:

This week, the Fed cut short-term rates another quarter point but said it would probably cut two times next year instead of the signaled four. The Dow dropped over 1,100 points. Confusion is the only explanation.

Continue reading →

And So It Ends

Dave Davis Commentary, Uncategorized , , , , , ,

I hope to live long enough to read the definitive book explaining how the powers in the Democratic Party brilliantly executed their plan to win the 2024 presidential election up to the end game. Faced with an administration with failing policies led by an increasingly physically failing President, the plan was to secure the weakest opponent. Once accomplished, replace Biden with a bright new face unattached to the administration to carry them to victory. A complaint media would partner in the endeavor.

The planners secured the Republican nomination for the weakest possible opponent, Donald Trump. They focused media attention on Trump by hitting the former president with several novel indictments. It is suitable to punish even political opponents if they break laws; we punish other citizens.

However, most of the cases were questionable rather than airtight. Republicans reacted as intended, with anger and sympathy for their former president. The planners also tried to keep him off the ballot in several places. The obvious unconstitutionality further enraged many in the G.O.P. All the focus on Trump’s court cases sucked all the air out of his primary opponents. Only Nikki Haley lasted through Super Tuesday.

Continue reading →