These Bubbles Need to Be Popped

Prompted by my belief that radical elements in each increasingly control the two established parties, I posted the series on the “Future Party.” (It is Available on this site.) I worried this situation would lead to wild policy swings whenever we change presidents. Unfortunately, this has been the case from Obama to Trump. Bolstered by initial control of both houses of Congress, each president pursued policies opposite their immediate predecessor.

One only has to look at our border migrant policies. Trump tightened Obama’s, only to find Biden reversed course on his first day. Trump’s return reversed Biden on his first day. This whiplash is also evident in foreign, domestic, and economic policies.

In the past, people could count on continuity. Businesses could commit to multi-year plans. Friends and allies knew they could count on us instead of watching their backs. If there were problems, we could hash things out before radical change.

That’s all in the past. Where the far ends of each party differ, they are often direct opposites. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party backs its climate change convictions with billions of dollars for windmills, solar, and electric vehicles (EVs), which are anathema to the Republican right. They look to oil and gas to continue to power the world. To that end, they’ve encouraged vast liquefied Gas Terminals. This situation leaves anyone with significant power needs with a damned if you do, damned if you don’t headache.

Now, Donald Trump has escalated this uncertainty. He has reversed Biden’s energy policies and added supply chain anxiety with constantly changing tariff policies.

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What’s Trump Thinking?

This view of the world may differ from what you’re used to, but it will help you understand why Trump and Zelensky see things differently. It will help you determine which one is right. Bear with me:

The Trump view is coming into focus. His attempt to end the Ukraine war began with his Secretary of State tossing essential negotiating points in the toilet—membership in N.A.T.O. is never going to happen, and forget about Ukraine regaining territory. Putin had already banked some of his greatest desires without giving up anything. Vice President Vance blasted some of our European allies as anti-free speech. Then Trump called Zellensky a dictator.

If you were a visitor from Mars assessing which side Trump was taking in the Ukraine conflict, the pro-Russian tact would be evident. Trump gave away his pro-Putin stance by allowing V.P. Vance, who is known to harbor ill will towards Ukraine, to attack its President in the meeting on national TV. The Russian response is unabashed glee. If Trump demands Russian concessions in private, would Putin be so happy?

Why does Trump favor the Russian dictator? There are two possible theories. Our President sees himself as Frederick the Great of Prussia, joining with his fellow monarchs in Russia and Austria-Hungary to divide up hapless Poland- only he sees himself getting together with Russia and China to divide the world into spheres of influence. That aligns with the view of Trump, the Narcissist adding “Great” to his title. His attitudes towards Canada, Denmark, and Panama point in this direction. How does this conform to our ideals? How does anyone but him benefit?

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Neville Trump

If Trump’s goal in opening peace talks with Putin is to end the current Ukraine war and ensure Russia doesn’t begin a new chapter a few years down the road, he has a strange way of going about it. Instead of presenting Putin with a list of actions the U.S. will take unless Russia agrees to workable guarantees of Ukraine’s borders, Trump’s Secretay of Defence announced NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table. Then, his Vice President infers the right-of-center German Christian Democrats should hook up with the pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (Afd).

If this wasn’t bad enough, Trump chose to denigrate Ukraine’s President as a Dictator responsible for the continuing war. Trump demands President Zelinsky hold an election. According to Trump, he has little support in Ukraine. (The latest poll has Zellinsky’s popularity at 57%),

Trump proposed that Ukraine pledge its natural resources for U.S. development to secure any more U.S. aid, and no U.S. forces will ever be involved in maintaining Ukraine’s borders. What is strange is that many of the resources are in the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine,

Putin must be dancing a jig over his good fortune. He can visualize sharing a Nobel Peace Prize with Trump while waiting to devour the rest of Ukraine for dessert. He doesn’t have to give up a thing.

What caused Trump to denounce the Ukrainian President? He dared complain about his exclusion from the talks that would decide his nation’s fate. One of the few remaining columnists, George Will, whose first memories were of World War II, reminds us of a similar circumstance on the road to that horrible war. The leaders of Great Britain, France, Italy, and Germany gathered in Munich to decide the fate of Czechoslovakia. The one excluded was the leader of that nation.

British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain claimed the agreement reached there promised “Peace in our Time.” Seven months later, Germany completed the takeover of the doomed nation. History gives Zelinsky every reason to object to Trump and Putin deciding the life or death of his country. Trump even excluded friendly European nations from the talks. The U.S. President’s anti-involvement stance echoes Chamberlain’s observation about “a quarrel in a faraway land between people of which we know nothing.”

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Inflation Isn’t Going Away

Inflation continues, and our politicians are busy blaming each other rather than offering common sense solutions. They and the media keep pointing to specific products and sectors in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), causing the price to rise. Akin to the blind men describing an elephant, it’s energy, no rent, no wages, and on and on. We must realize that certain items aren’t going up simultaneously, but an increase in one leads to another; once inflation takes hold, it continues to rachet up until supply increases force prices down or demand is curtailed to the point that lack of sales stops prices from rising.

The last significant inflationary period was in the 1970s and early ’80s. It was brought under control by a combination of the Federal Reserve, raising the cost of borrowing so high it crushed demand, resulting in a severe recession. At the same time, we lowered taxes and regulations. Government pushback, such as Reagan’s firing of the Air comptrollers and continued business movement to right-to-work states, curbed wage demands and improved productivity.

Lowering expenses and making more investment capital available increased businesses’ incentive to expand production. The increase in supply met or exceeded demand, mitigating price pressures. We often forget to look at the profit & Loss effect spurring investment:

The impact on energy prices illustrates how well this worked.

The Great Inflation of the 1970s got its kickstart with the dramatic increase in the crude oil price following the Arab oil embargo. Because oil prices affect so much of the economy, price pressure spreads. Prices followed as transport, chemicals, fertilizer, and heating costs increased.

Rather than suppress the resulting inflation through high interest rates, the Fed created more money to accommodate it.

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Allow People To Interact

All the noise about the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) lopping off unneeded chunks of the Federal Government and the horrified response by the big government-favoring progressive left got me thinking about what the purpose of Government is in the modern world and how we can match it to those goals.

My take on the question will shock and horrify others, but hear me out. The purpose of modern Government is to provide the structure for free and open markets to thrive. These markets are another way of saying people can freely and safely interact.

Markets are the best way to allocate resources to better the human condition. Nothing, including the various forms of socialism, mercantilism, feudalism, or tribalism, has lifted humanity more than free and open markets. If you don’t accept this, I urge you to read “Super Abundance.” As the structures necessary for markets to thrive expanded, humanity’s living standards have dramatically improved, even as its numbers have grown.

The reasons for market superiority aren’t hard to find. Billions of people using the latest information will arrive at better decisions and make them quicker than the relatively few elites in Government. In the information age, this advantage only grows.

Markets are the most democratic form of choice. People vote for their preferences. These are hard choices because their money is involved rather than theoretical. We are all human, so markets make mistakes momentarily but self-correct as new information enters the continuous exchange. We invest funds to receive a proper return. If the profit potential leaves, so do we.

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