It Gets Worse

It’s hard to believe, but both presidential campaigns keep getting worse. Have we learned anything? As I’ve pointed out in my series, “The Long Journey to More,” settled societies were run by the ruling elites for their benefit, while the masses were left to subsistence. Kings and emperors picked winners and losers. It was better to align with the ruling powers than rock the boat with innovation.

From the Pharaohs in ancient Egypt to Louis the Fourteenth in France, rulers dictated who got what. However, the fifteenth century ushered in changes undermining elite arbitrary authority, resulting in markets, not masters dictating actions. More people participated in making, trading, and benefitting from new goods used in innovative ways. A new system replaced the old great for the few but bare sustenance for most with “More” for those allowed to partake.

Moral philosophers began to take notice. The author of “The Theory of Moral Sentiments” proposed that markets, rather than potentates, making decisions on prices and what to produce and sell would bring widespread benefits. The “invisible Hand” of markets was the moral way to “The Wealth of Nations.” At the time, no one thought of this Scotsman as an “economist” because, in retrospect, he was the father of this “science.” He and his contemporaries thought of Adam Smith only as a philosopher.

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 The Mouse Doesn’t Like You

Two takeaways from the debate: Trump is still Trump, and we have irrefutable confirmation the bulk media has crossed over to the dark side. Somewhere along the line, it became part of MAGA dogma that Trump is a great debater. The facts never supported this contention. He lost debates with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and failed to win against Joe Biden in 2020. Trump scored a solid victory in a presidential debate only against a feeble Biden in the recent one. You must return to the Republican primary debates in his first run, where Trump appeared to dominate. However, then he could belittle his opponents on a very crowded stage.

Trump, unprepared and drawn into rehashing his 2020 loss, failed to effectively present his case in a debate ripe with opportunities. On the other hand, Kamala Harris delivered many carefully vague, rehearsed answers, mainly unrelated to the questions asked. Her first question was, “Are you better today than four years ago?”‘ It was left unanswered in favor of a planned opening statement, setting the tone for the night’s rest. The ABC moderators’ failure to follow up and press her for an answer was consistent throughout the debate.

In judging the debate, it’s helpful to note what issues Americans care about most:

Before the event, Trump said Disney’s ABC was biased against him, so why agree to a debate where it might be three against one? Possibly, CNN’s recent Biden-Trump debate gave him a false hope of even-handedness. but that time, Biden’s removal was the target.,not him. It might’ve been hubris; maybe he didn’t comprehend how far Disney would go to ensure a Harris victory. Even though we’ve seen moderator bias in Presidential debates before, such as Candy Crowley erroneously intervening to back Barrack Obama over Benghazi Terrorism, severely damaging Mitt Romney when he was about to win his second straight debate.

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The Other Debate

Examining the issues and how the candidates relate to them is crucial as we enter the home stretch of one of the strangest presidential elections ever. The last post exposed abortion as an emotional issue, lacking honest discussion. It’s important to approach such emotional problems with a balanced, rational perspective, considering the future demographics if abortion lacks any guardrails. Neither side offers depth to the debate, leaving us open to easily foreseen errors.

Unlike abortion, both candidates have four-year governing records so that we can compare their governing principles and results. Both faced domestic and foreign challenges, and the public had the basis to judge the results.

Domestically, the Trump administration turned over a growing, non-inflationary economy. The pandemic recovery might have been even more robust if Blue States had opened up at the same pace as Red.

Initially relying on his bureaucratic medical advisors, Trump made a hasty decision to shut down most of the nation and provide compensation to offset the resulting losses. However, he soon reversed his stance and favored reopening schools and businesses. Unfortunately, most Blue states were slow to follow, and we are still grappling with the prolonged effects of the lockdown, particularly in education. The impact of the pandemic on our economy and education system cannot be overstated.

Even with Trump’s lockdown and compensation overspending, by the time Biden took over, the nation was on its way to returning to the favorable economic conditions evident before the pandemic. By Biden’s inauguration, a million people got COVID-19 vaccine shots daily. No matter what the Kamala says, Bided-Harris came in on a favorable wave.

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Abortion In A Broader Context

There is one issue with the emotional appeal of turning some into single-issue voters. Abortion has been a divisive issue for as long as I can remember, and I’m old. As one without a direct interest in the controversy, I’d like to try to take some emotion out of the conflict and inject some inconvenient facts into the discussion.

In my April post “Three Storylines Revisited,” I acknowledged the near impossibility of banning abortions in the first trimester since most are by pill. All we’d accomplish is a black market run by bad people. Further, we get wrapped up in the argument about when life begins.

The second trimester is a different story. We don’t use the pill after eleven months. We routinely perform ultrasounds at 10-13 weeks. Shortly after, we start testing the little one. Increasingly sophisticated, we’re learning all sorts of things about the baby. Aided by AI, we’ll know a lot more in the future.

Already, we’re identifying conditions, some life-threatening, that are correctable in the womb. While we can endlessly argue about when life begins, at this point, there is no contesting that the baby is alive. You can’t perform lifesaving procedures on something that isn’t alive.

We’ve all heard “Born that way,” to describe those on the Autistic Spectrum, members of the LBGTQ+ community, and many others. We have no reason to doubt these assertions, but people are “born that way ” for a reason. Some combination of DNA, enzymes, and other inputs determines these outcomes. Aided by AI, we will know the mix, probably shortly. Parents have a right to test results, so there is no keeping secrets.

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Bad Ideas vs. What Works

The oddest thing about this presidential election is that nominees base their programs on highly discredited ideas. Price caps, tariffs, and industrial policy underlie Trump and Harris programs. One might think that finding what works and building on these have a better chance of success, but both have gone in the opposite direction.

In her first economic speech, Kamala Harris positioned her inflation-fighting program on a FTC crackdown on grocery price gouging. Rather than overspending by the Government resulting in too much money chasing too few goods, the accepted reason for inflation is those rascally grocers jacking up prices to fatten their profits. Better, the Government can control inflation by determining the “correct price.”

Price controls have a long history, going back to Roman times or earlier. They have uniformly failed, often making the situation far worse. High prices signal markets to increase supply or provide substitutes. Capping prices at a lower level sends the opposite signal, resulting in less supply, increasing shortages, and black markets. Marxist countries such as the USSR, Cuba, and Venezuela suffered from the Government dictating prices.

In an era of “Super Abundance,” as documented in the same-titled book by Tupy and Pooley I’ve been recommending, you must work hard to have so much less. Richard Nixon discovered this through his wage and price controls in the 1970s. Shortages and lines were a feature of our lives. Autos in long lines at gas stations brought home this policy failure to every community.

Upon his election in 1980, Ronald Reagan dumped the price caps on oil. Many projected the price of a barrel of oil would soar to over $100. Instead, the price ultimately bottomed out at around $10. The market reacted to price signals and brought forth price-reducing supply.

Why would anyone replicate a failed policy? Kamala Harris’s boss, Joe Biden, proposed rent control, an even worse policy. Will the Democratic nominee pursue this? What other prices will she cap?

In any case, why pick on grocers? Of the top five places most people purchase groceries, who’s a gouger? Walmart? Costco? Who should the FTC go after?

Not to be outdone in resurrecting bad policy, Trump is touting tariffs as a cure-all. Keeping out foreign products will foster making things here, producing good-paying jobs. Foreigners who have been taking advantage of us will pay huge taxes into our coffers-America first. What’s not to like? After all, didn’t we have high tariffs in the past to protect our industries?

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