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Bad Books

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

We’re at a point where it is impossible to comment on the present administration’s policies. Trump’s pledge to end both the Ukraine and Gaza wars quickly has dissolved into continued bloodshed, with only a few hostages returned and some prisoners exchanged. The administration apparently may move away from peace efforts. We must wait for information on what the administration is up to now.

There are three ways our tariff policy could go. First, Trump could come to his senses and reverse most of these taxes. The loss of trust in the U.S. will remain, but it mayn’t get worse.

On the other hand, if Trump truly wants us to produce everything within our borders, he has to raise the walls so high that nothing comes in from abroad. Of course, if nothing comes in, we take in no revenue—just higher prices and less choice.  

The third outcome may be an expanded version of Trump’s first-term approach: imposing tariffs and negotiating a patchwork of cut-outs and individual deals with countries, industries, and companies.

If I had to bet, I’d go with the last option. An endless procession of supplicants competing for favor is a narcissist’s dream. Of course, granting favors to those best appealing to his vanity would be a mercantilist economy on steroids—cronyism rules. Will this work better now than in the past?

While waiting for the fog to clear, it’s a good time to deal with the sudden spate of books and articles on Biden’s cognitive decline by people who were aware of it or should’ve been aware the former president wasn’t on top of his game.

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These Bubbles Need to Be Popped

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Future Party, Uncategorized , , , ,

Prompted by my belief that radical elements in each increasingly control the two established parties, I posted the series on the “Future Party.” (It is Available on this site.) I worried this situation would lead to wild policy swings whenever we change presidents. Unfortunately, this has been the case from Obama to Trump. Bolstered by initial control of both houses of Congress, each president pursued policies opposite their immediate predecessor.

One only has to look at our border migrant policies. Trump tightened Obama’s, only to find Biden reversed course on his first day. Trump’s return reversed Biden on his first day. This whiplash is also evident in foreign, domestic, and economic policies.

In the past, people could count on continuity. Businesses could commit to multi-year plans. Friends and allies knew they could count on us instead of watching their backs. If there were problems, we could hash things out before radical change.

That’s all in the past. Where the far ends of each party differ, they are often direct opposites. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party backs its climate change convictions with billions of dollars for windmills, solar, and electric vehicles (EVs), which are anathema to the Republican right. They look to oil and gas to continue to power the world. To that end, they’ve encouraged vast liquefied Gas Terminals. This situation leaves anyone with significant power needs with a damned if you do, damned if you don’t headache.

Now, Donald Trump has escalated this uncertainty. He has reversed Biden’s energy policies and added supply chain anxiety with constantly changing tariff policies.

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Allow People To Interact

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Long Journey to "More", Uncategorized , , , ,

All the noise about the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) lopping off unneeded chunks of the Federal Government and the horrified response by the big government-favoring progressive left got me thinking about what the purpose of Government is in the modern world and how we can match it to those goals.

My take on the question will shock and horrify others, but hear me out. The purpose of modern Government is to provide the structure for free and open markets to thrive. These markets are another way of saying people can freely and safely interact.

Markets are the best way to allocate resources to better the human condition. Nothing, including the various forms of socialism, mercantilism, feudalism, or tribalism, has lifted humanity more than free and open markets. If you don’t accept this, I urge you to read “Super Abundance.” As the structures necessary for markets to thrive expanded, humanity’s living standards have dramatically improved, even as its numbers have grown.

The reasons for market superiority aren’t hard to find. Billions of people using the latest information will arrive at better decisions and make them quicker than the relatively few elites in Government. In the information age, this advantage only grows.

Markets are the most democratic form of choice. People vote for their preferences. These are hard choices because their money is involved rather than theoretical. We are all human, so markets make mistakes momentarily but self-correct as new information enters the continuous exchange. We invest funds to receive a proper return. If the profit potential leaves, so do we.

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Changing Times

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

In line with my efforts to see all sides of an issue, I keep up with ideas on both the left and the right. CNN and Washington Post (WP) columnist Fareed Zakaria usually provides good insight into establishment thinking, especially on foreign affairs. His latest  WP column is an eye-opener. He calls into question the left’s efforts to benefit the working class.

Most noncollege graduates in Red states voted for Trump and Republicans, even though the Biden administration made significant efforts to provide job-producing projects there. Instead of appreciating their benefactors, the ingrates voted for the opposition.

Zakaria feels the left’s prevailing theory is to move away from a market-oriented economy to one with sweeping government interventions. “It passed massive infrastructure and climate spending bills, explicitly designed to help noncollege educated Americans.” Zakaria points to two congressional districts, one in Texas and the other in Mississippi, that received the most significant government-backed projects but still voted increasingly Republican.

Attributing the continuing working-class Republican migration to race, identity, and culture issues among noncollege-educated whites, he thinks the Democrats should concentrate on their “solid base of college-educated professionals, women and minorities,” and strive to add moderate swing voters. He observes, “Biden keeps touting his pro-union credentials but is increasingly speaking of a bygone era. In 2023, only 6 percent of private sector workers belonged to a union.” The votes to win are elsewhere.

Shortly after reading the Zakaria article, I read Peter Suderman, Reason Magazine’s features editor, “Biden’s Legacy: He Didn’t Build That,” “…over and over again, that’s what happened under Biden: Vast sums were spent or authorized, but nothing came of it.” Maybe that’s why the people in Texas and Mississippi aren’t thrilled if there is no lithium refinery or battery factory. Because of red tape, opposition, and slow-moving bureaucracies, building things in the U.S. takes forever or never gets done.  

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’24’s Leftover Mysteries

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

As we enter 2025, some ’24 mysteries remain unresolved. Donald Trump ran his successful campaign with a variety of seemingly contradictory positions. I was reminded of these when the Cafe Hayek blog pointed to economist Mark Perry’s illustration:

This contradiction made me think of other Trump contradictions. Peace and safety while withdrawing our troops from the Middle East. Without our support, the Kurds overseeing tens of thousands of ISSIS followers may face an attack by Turkish forces, rendering them unable to prevent a resurgence of the deadly group. Remember, Turkish leader Erdogan has territorial ambitions of his own. This possibility doesn’t sound peaceful to me.

We all know that politicians make all sorts of claims that step on each other, but now it’s time to introduce legislation, and conflicts remain unresolved. The idea is to write one or two big reconciliation bills containing the whole Trump program.

Inflation is a paramount issue that accounts for Trump’s victory, yet many of the president-elect’s promises are likely to raise prices. Besides tariffs that, like sales taxes, increase what you’re paying, lower taxes for favored groups, such as those working for tips or retirees, will likely result in higher interest rates or printing money. As I’ve pointed out, either will raise prices.

Unquestionably, the Biden Administration’s wild spending on the Green New Deal, infrastructure, and chips led to the highest inflation in forty years, but will Trump attempt to repeal all of this legislation? Taken together, these acts are an enormous industrial policy. Repeal all since state-directed economies have no record of success.

The question is whether Trump will tackle the problems wholeheartedly or simply piecemeal. The latter will be conflict on conflict. For instance, will Trump’s buddy, Elon Musk, stand still for eliminating his electric vehicle incentives and green tax credit sales? Will members of Congress allow the scrapping of big projects scheduled for their districts? Many businesses have sunk big money based on the Biden-era legislation. Can they continue without the promised subsidies and credits, or must they swallow significant losses on sunk costs? Even major oil companies put big bucks into green projects.

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