donald-trump

Only The Next Rung Is Important

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Future Party, Uncategorized , , , ,

Successful politicians are those with an ear for what people are thinking. Recognize what’s bothering most people and let them know you hear them; if possible, offer a solution. At least, I thought I understood how it works, but I was wrong. How else can you explain why so many politicians are staking out positions with only minority support?

On the left, politicians have taken positions supporting biological men competing in women’s sports. Blue State leaders stand in the way of banning this unfair competition. Criminals here illegally get support from the same group when the federal government tries to remove them.

On the right, we have an administration levying tariffs willy-nilly against both friends and foes. The same administration berates Ukraine while asking nothing of Russia in their conflict. Neither position has majority support.

What do these positions have in common? They are highly unpopular. Sizable majorities deplore these positions, so why do supposedly intelligent politicians stand foursquare for them? The realization is that in today’s politics, you climb one rung at a time. If you don’t grab the lower rung, you have no upside.

In most cases, that lower rung is your party’s nomination. This situation means winning primaries. In my series on “The Future Party,” I noted that while primaries appear to be the democratic expression of the people’s will, the results often fall short of this ideal.

It isn’t hard to see why primaries fail to reflect the mood and concerns of the general electorate. It has to do with turnout. Primaries typically draw less than half the participation of a general election. For instance, according to the last statistics I could find, the 2022 Utah primary drew 19% of eligible voters. The General Election drew 44%. Most primaries draw less than a quarter of voters, while the General election draws 40 to 50%. Presidential elections draw over sixty percent.

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We’ll Know Soon

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Future Party, Uncategorized , , , ,

With so many things coming together this week, we may be closer to a watershed movement than we knew. Many of them validate points I’ve been making. Ukraine launched well-planned attacks on military targets deep in Russia. That nation does have cards to play, much to Trump’s and others’ dismay. A bunch of expensive and irreplaceable bombers, along with essential bridges destroyed, bring the war home to Russia in the most embarrassing way. Enhancing Ukraine’s ability to continue to hit deep into Russia is the decision by European nations to remove restrictions on how the Ukrainians use the weapons they provide.

I pointed out how foolish it is not to support Ukraine’s ability to strike back at military targets anywhere in Russia. Why should Russia give an inch in any peace talks if little of theirs is at risk, while they can attack at will, not only military targets but civilians as well?

Bolstering the ever-increasing attacks on the homeland with new sanctions with teeth that may be in Russia’s future. Sen. Linsey Graham’s bill to target Russian oil already has bipartisan support, with 67 sponsors evenly divided between the two parties. Even with Trump’s foot-dragging on anything causing Putin pain, the Russian dictator will face increasing torment. The question is whether Trump will lean even more toward Putin.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is homeless. By that, I mean he’s lost his last political home. Like many highly educated individuals, he began his political journey on the left, establishing his businesses in the true-blue state of California. The Democratic Party stood up for our liberty, or so he thought. Dealing with the California bureaucracy and the government’s overt interference in free social networks and free speech altered his perspective. The migration of his enterprises to Texas followed. He bought Twitter and exposed the government agencies that distorted the flow of information.

It made sense for him to gravitate away from the big government Democrats to the party of small government and free trade.

He produced Autos both here and abroad, and his products required worldwide supply chains. He craved less regulation and interference. When the Democrats didn’t align with his needs, he moved to the only other choice, the Republicans.

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A Fork In The Road?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

It all seemed so easy. Resolving the war in Ukraine upon Trump’s return to office—peace in Gaza and the return of all hostages. Manufacturing is sprouting up across the Rust Belt, providing a multitude of good-paying jobs, all protected by a solid tariff wall. Everyone at the rallies cheered for a new day. Well, Trump has been president for over 100 days, and it all seems like a distant memory.

If anything, the Ukraine war is even nastier, with Russia targeting civilians. While directing all sorts of pressure and humiliation toward Ukraine and its leadership, Trump, up to this point, refused to cause Russia any discomfort. Why does our president coddle an unfriendly power that is the aggressor? As I demonstrated in my post, “What’s Trump Thinking,” the notion that Russia would abandon its alliance with China is a fantasy. China isn’t about to allow a Russian defection to put the developing Arctic trade route in unfriendly hands. Putin knows that if he can’t subdue the much smaller Ukraine, he stands no chance against China. Trump seems unaware that Russia is China’s vassal state. He continues to treat Russia as a great power.

While retrieving some hostages, the war in Gaza rages on, with many still unaccounted for. A truce with the Houthis has allowed shipping to return to the Suez route, but Israel is still subject to attack.

As Iran closes in on becoming a nuclear power, Trump is in talks to trade sanctions relief for Iran putting off a nuclear weapon. This negotiation is similar to the Obama administration’s tactics. The pact they made with Iran resulted in that nation funding its pawns, Hamas, the Houthis, Bashar Assad, and Hezbollah. We all know how that turned out.

Trump’s industrial policy, centered on the use of high tariffs, has so far engendered much confusion, numerous paper promises, and little difference in Rust Belt manufacturing. Where the almost daily tariff changes lead is anyone’s guess.

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Mirror Mirror

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

I can’t help thinking we’re in some mirror image of the Biden presidency. It’s a funny house mirror, to be sure, but a mirror nonetheless. An aging president is exhibiting strange behavior, and the people around him and his supporters in the media assure us there is nothing to see here. The president is at the top of his game. Deluged today with books exposing Joe Biden’s cognitive decline, will books describe the coverup of Donald Trump’s decline four years hence?

Trump,suporters point to his suceesses. The “businessman” knows how to make deals. A slew of executive orders has changed almost everything. The border is secure. Tariffs force manufacturing to return to the Rust Belt, and foreigners invest trillions in the U.S., creating many good-paying jobs.

Remember the early euphoria over Joe Biden’s string of legislative successes? Finally, an infrastructure bill to fix everything, the Inflation Reduction Act to save the planet. Joe rivaled FDR or even exceeded him. Biden’s experience in foreign affairs will keep the peace. Democrats were elated.

Now, all this seems so long ago. Joe’s foreign affairs expertise brought us the horrendous Afghan withdrawal, the ongoing wars in Ukraine, and the Middle East. His Inflation Reduction Act gave us the highest inflation in forty years. Biden and his backers forgot that weakness invites aggression, and wild spending brings rising prices.

With things going awry, people started questioning the president’s competence. His stumbling, sometimes incoherent actions caused alarm. Yet everyone, from the White House to Biden’s legions of media supporters, told us Joe was sharp as a tack.

When the Wall Street Journal said otherwise, the whole media seemed down on the paper. Biden supporters ignored the dangers of the Afghan withdrawal or wild spending. The news media ‘s job is to alert people to possible problems, but they see none; if they do, they keep it to themselves. One book after another implies the administration’s abundant failures were due to Biden’s decline.

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Falling In Line

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

The most dismaying part of today’s public policy dysfunction is the willingness of people who know or should know what they’re saying, which isn’t true, to shape views to align with their group’s views rather than look at the actual data. Just this past week, two well-known sources of information said things unsupported by any facts. If you believed them, it could cause harm.

On his Fox business show, Larry Kudlow and the panel laughed at a Wall Street Journal article showing professionals selling while the public buys. With the market rallying, their clear implication was that the public is smarter than the professionals and buying now is a better bet than selling.

This assessment flies in the face of experience. One of the universal signs of a market top is widespread bullishness, especially among smaller investors. Small investors don’t have the information that the pros have access to. Who else is left to buy to increase prices when the public is all in? Basing your market outlook on the supposed stupidity of professionals and the bullish actions of the public hasn’t worked out well in the past.

I don’t know what will happen. If the tariffs stay high, it’s hard to see a solid future. However, if Trump makes a few inconsequential deals, like the one with the U.K., and then calls most of the tariffs off, it would surely improve the outlook. At this point, no one knows what Trump will do. I don’t think Trump knows.

Having served in both the Reagan and Trump administrations, Kudlow has a unique position. He knows the adverse effects of high tariffs well, so it’s baffling that he’s taken a bullish position with high tariffs still in effect. Implying that the pros do less well at market turns than the public to justify his pro-Trump position is out of place.

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