While we await the election, the world moves forward. Wars keep spreading. The administration continues its mission to prevent this, but we have the opposite. Ukraine seized Russian territory. In the Middle East, Lebanon is aflame, and Iran is taking blows.. Now, North Koreans have entered Russia, apparently to bolster the Ukrainian front. The conflict containment policy has failed.

Kamala Harris says she wouldn’t change anything. Are we looking at the same wars? While we wait for direction from whomever wins the Presidency, our friends have suffered. At every step of the way, the U.S. put obstacles in the way of the Ukraine, and Israel to deal their foes attitude changing blows. Aggression is best met by a solid and painful response. If it isn’t, the attacker has no reason to desist. When we forget this simple fact, we promote more bad behavior. Lawbreakers paying little price or no price leads to more crime.

Now we have Turkey bombing the Kurds. Remember them? They are the ones who filled the combat role in our victory over Issis. A terrorist attack on military base caused the Turkish action, even though there is no proof it was the Kurds.

In the past, I favored a close relationship with the Kurds because they liked us and were formidable fighters. Their precarious position as a minority in several countries inspires loyalty to the power with common interests. As it is, they are another friend given more reason to distrust us.

Whether it’s our NATO Allies or Taiwan, our friends have to reevaluate what support they will get from us. Do we even listen to them? Our NATO Allies wanted to keep troops in Afghanistan, but Biden blew them off. That didn’t turn out well. More recently, the U.K. and France wanted to give Ukraine permission to use their long-range weapons. Again, Biden said no.

The media keep talking about Trump being a danger to our relationships with our Allies, but this ignores the damage done by our present administration.

As our International position continues to deteriorate into the danger zone, our domestic economy is sending warning signals. Filled with upbeat stories of lower inflation and a soft landing, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting short-term rates. We’ll finally be able to afford that house. The worst is over.

Not so fast. While the Fed has made a half-point cut, and indicating more cuts in the future, the longer-term U.S. Treasury 10 Year note, after dropping off it’s high rate, is climbing back up. As this note governs mortgage rates, happy days may not be on the horizon.

Recently, I warned against buying longer-term notes and bonds, citing the prospect of our high deficit spending colliding with funds running out for Social Security and Medicare. If we don’t take action, we face high interest rates, inflation, or both.

Recently, we had a paper put out by a respected institution showing that Trump’s policies will shorten the time until the Social Security trust is exhausted. The possibility of an even shorter time to crisis may already be affecting the market. https://fortune.com/2024/10/21/donald-trump-social-security-trust-fund-insolvency-benefit-cuts-kamala-harris/

It doesn’t have to happen. Remember, inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. Increasing the goods is a good place to start. Presently, it is difficult to near impossible to mine or build anything in the U.S. In the late 1970s and the 1980s, we tamed double-digit inflation by deregulating whole industries, while encouraging more investment by changing how we are taxed. We know what works, so why wait until we are in crisis?

A week before the election isn’t the time for me to go into detailed solutions. One might think the possibility of worldwide conflagration and financial collapse might be discussed in detail by the presidential candidates, but we are still waiting. The wars if discussed at all, seem far away and taking funds from our needs at home. People hate high prices and interest rates, but there is little enlightenment about how they came about, much less how to proceed in the future.

This circumstance is what makes this election so disappointing. Neither candidate seems to have a philosophy of governing. Ronald Reagan had solid convictions governing his actions. Ending inflation and the cold war were the result.

Instead, we have the inconsistent Donald Trump, whose policies are often contradictory, and Kamala Harris who position changes are so numerous, you have wonder if she has any convictions at all.

Sometimes, we need real leaders, but all we get is James Buchanan or Neville Chamberlain. Let’s hope this isn’t one of those times.