Year: 2019

An Under Served Market

Dave Davis Policy, Uncategorized

Can you think of anything anywhere there are 36 ready and willing buyers for everyone offered and no one is doing much to meet the demand? Something there’s at least a 2 to 7-year wait? We couldn’t either. In a capitalist country, supply would simply rise to meet the demand. Unless it’s a short-range disruption, generally it’s the government doing something wrong (think Cuba or Venezuelan) and/or not providing the proper legal framework to allow markets to do their job.

So it is with the shortage of babies for adoption. Right now, more than 2 million couples are waiting in line to for a baby. Families waiting to be completed. How many more are too discouraged by the incredible gauntlet of our adoption system to even try, have dropped out or are looking elsewhere is unknown? If you are among the few not having a family member or friend that has gone through the adoption misadventure, go online to read the endless stories of woe. We feel for a much lower number of transgenders wanting to get on with their lives, but we ignore the stress these millions are going through for just wanting to have a family.

Even if you can’t get worked up over what these couples are going through, you just might be over the possibility of our declining national population. Countries with declining populations such as Japan or Russia are locked in very slow growth with less young people supporting an ever-growing aged population. This will only get increasingly untenable in the future. So how do we maintain or increase our working-age population down the road? We can allow much greater numbers of immigrants. This, however, is a great bone of contention between our two major parties with no resolution anywhere on the horizon.

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Maybe Not So Wrong

Dave Davis Commentary, Uncategorized

Back in April 2015 in our post ALL IN THE PLAN? we theorized President Obama’s justice department would sideline Hillary Clinton and a weaker candidate would go on to lose the 2016 presidential election. This would leave the party in a favorable state for the Obamas. Michelle would go on to become governor of Illinois, putting her on a launching pad for the Democratic 2020 nomination. However, James Comey first wounded Hillary but didn’t prevent her nomination and then mightily contributed to her defeat in the general election but reopening the investigation just before the election. We gave our take on all this at the time in our post Election Recap. . In any case, the Democratic candidate lost.

Meanwhile, even with an unpopular Republican governor in a deep blue state, the state’s problems were so acute it was seen as “the sick man of the Midwest.”  A superhero couldn’t fix this state. Faced with the likelihood of being tarred with failure, the Obamas wisely decided to stay in D.C. far from the Illinois political cesspool.

Looks like we really got this one wrong.  Well, maybe we got some details of the path wrong but maybe not the ultimate result. The point of our post was Obama’s return to the White House.  If anything we think it will be even easier than we thought.  As we pointed out in our earlier post, the Democratic party was starved and neglected during the Obama presidency and has only has started to be recovered with the 2014 midterms.  Not enough time to produce a really top rate group of candidates. The lack of governorships hurt because executive experience is highly valued in a candidate for the nation’s top executive position.  Worse, the perception Trumps election was a fluke and anyone could beat him has brought forth old warhorses and a plethora of uninspiring younger candidates.  For example the 37yr old Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg is doing better in the polls than most of the younger contingent even though his only executive experience is as mayor of a very small moribund city.  Sitting in Phoenix, Az, we’re surrounded by vibrant small cities such as Scottsdale, Tempe, and Chandler, all much larger and growing.  Yet no one would even think of any of the mayors of these much more successful cities as presidential contenders. The Democrats have brought forth a legion of minimal candidates.

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He Cant Be Serious

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized

President Trump again has put a wide swath of the establishment types in a state of fear for another of our “venerable” institutions.  What could he be thinking?  Steven Moore and  horrors Herman Cain considered for the Federal Reserve Board?  Why they don’t even have a PHD among them. Worse he is playing politics with appointment by selecting people generally agreeing with him on economic policy.  They see the  Fed as a revered independent agency led by highly educated elites delivering stable money and full employment from on high.  Contamination with these two louts will taint this wonderful institution with mediocrity possibly leading to failure. We have trouble in River City.

Before everyone hyperventilates, remember we’re talking about the Federal Reserve.  You know, the people not having a clue the “Great Recession” was on the horizon.  The ones by keeping interest rates so low it forced people in need of returns worldwide to buy riskier instruments such as the Collaterized Mortgage Obligations containing the subprime mortgages. That rocked the world economy.  Even when they woke up, their answer was to buy trillions of dollars worth of debt with newly created money driving interest rates near zero.  The result was the slowest recovery ever recorded after any recession or depression.  This even with  Obama’s near trillion-dollar stimulus.  At best the Fed has a hit or miss record since its inception.  We warned of the continuing destabilization of  the economy if interest rates continue below normal in our post Free Capital to Finance “More” in our series “The long Journey to More.”  The Fed never seems to be aware of the bubbles it creates till they burst.

Tightening or loosening the money supply at the wrong time may actually have happened more often than they got it right. As Milton Friedman put it, “No major institution in the US has so poor a record of performance over so long a period as the Federal Reserve, yet so high a public reputation.”  And this was said before  its “Great Recession” failures.  It would seem this is an organization in clear need of fresh ideas to achieve positive performance.

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One Way Howard Schultz Could Actually Become President

Dave Davis Commentary, The Future Party

Watching a cable news interview with a major university president, we were struck by the fact he was talking not about he might do to reduce the cost of a college education and the attending debt burden, but what he actually had done.  Expounding on his article that recently appeared in the Washington Post where he is a contributor, he outlined what in point of fact how is has reduced costs.  At a time when college costs are rising at a rate far in excess of the general rate of inflation, since he became President in 2013 his university has seen no rise in tuition and other costs such as text books have been successfully attacked.  Innovative ways for students to get a college education without incurring heavy debt have been introduced. Wow, somebody telling you what he’s actually done about a major problem rather than talking pie in sky.

In the fashion of cable news, after University President’s interview was over and he was gone, two commentators, one from the left and one from the right joined the host to discuss what was said. What impressed us was instead of the normal loud disagreement that seems to come with the job of cable news commentator, both were surprisingly positive about what they heard. One might think the commentator on the right might look in  askance of an academic Washington Post Contributor, but on the other hand the one from the left might be unenthusiastic over a known Republican. Yet with some tangible ideas to think and talk about, both admiringly considered how these actions could be expanded upon.  Real solutions seem to bring a certain consensus.

Who is this University President who elicits such a positive response?  That would be Mitch Daniels, the President of Purdue University.  It would not come as a surprise to those acquainted with him to be seen as a problem solver.  A successful two term Indiana Governor, a top  Fortune Five hundred company executive, Director of the Office of Management and Budget under George w. Bush, Think Tank Head and author all point to a man who solves problems.

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We Don’t Talk Anymore

Dave Davis Uncategorized

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Have you lately felt disinclined to engage strangers of another race or ethnicity in any kind of conversation?  Say in a locker room or sharing waiting space.  We bring this up because we have found ourselves cutting these interactions short.  Instead of following  “good morning” with “how’s your day going”, it ends withe first salutation.  At the heart of the reluctance is the real fear of inadvertently sayings or doing something the other person might find offensive.  In these days of “code words” and “dog whistles” it’s almost impossible to keep up with what might offend somebody. If you’re not the one inadvertently offending, you might be the one offended and feel compelled to stand up.  Better to dodge a possible confrontation.

Now some people advise if you find yourself  in a situation of offending someone possibly because you weren’t properly “woke”, apologize immediately and if asked to do something to rectify the situation, do it.  Forget this puts you at the mercy of what someone else thinks and your side  isn’t heard.  If  you offend someone your reasons and explanation are immaterial.  Unfortunately this can lead to some bizarre situations.

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