Some Things On My Mind

Catching up on some things I’ve commented on in the past. Remember when Donald Trump said he would end the Ukraine War in 24 hours? I made some suggestions on how he might accomplish this goal. Mainly, it consisted of ways to bring the pain of War to Russia—longer-range weapons to shoot back. As usual, the President ignores my advice. He still tells Ukraine not to hit key cities in Russia. Over half a year into his term, and the War rages on worse than ever.

After several pauses in aid to Ukraine, Trump has concluded that Putin is jerking him around. A former KGB officer can’t be trusted, who knew? Now he’s arranged to ship more arms to the embattled nation that our NATO allies will pay for. To many, this suggests a shift in Trump’s stance on the War.

I’m skeptical. The Washington Post’s David Ignatius, who in the past had good sources, says the new aid includes longer-range weapons and lifts range restrictions on some they already have. Still, unless these weapons hit the political centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg, it won’t matter that much. Till the people of these cities face the same terror that the citizens of Kyiv experience now, Putin has no incentive to change. Yet, Trump says Ukraine shouldn’t hit Moscow.

The President also threatened tough action on the sanctions-tariff front but gave Putin 50 days’ notice before any implementation. After more than six months, why so much time? Is it to head off the Senate from passing the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill? The Senate should pass the bill now with its significant bipartisan majority to send a message to both Putin and Trump.

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Trumping Trump

O.K., who left the closet door open and let Peter Navarro, the White House trade advisor, out? All I know is I woke up Friday morning to find Tariff Man, A.K.A. President Donald Trump had threatened the European Union with a 50% tariff on June 1st if they didn’t bend to his will. Added to this blast was a 25% tariff on any iPhones built outside the U.S. Apple has been moving production to India.

So much for the assurances uttered by those behind Trump’s first-term tax success; as I’ve pointed out, Larry Kudlow, Steve Moore, and Art Laffer led us to believe massive tariffs were only a tactic to obtain fairer trade terms. On “Liberation Day,” we saw high tariffs, only to be partially rolled back, but here we go again. How often do we hear the cry of “wolf” without any canine attack before we stop listening about wolves and anything else we hear from the Crier?

We may have legitimate complaints against our trading partners, and they have their concerns. But why not negotiate in good faith rather than making enemies out of friends and potential friends? Our relationship with Europe is already shaky over the Ukraine conflict and NATO. Do we need a more estrangement?

As the most populous nation on earth, India, as an ally, could help offset China. India is a rapidly developing nation willing to produce things we’ve been getting from China. We should be happy that Apple builds phones there rather than in China. No, Trump demands Apple make expensive phones in the U.S. India has every reason to feel stiffed by the U.S. Do we want to punish an American Tech company while we’re claiming that’s what the EU is doing? Why take business from India?

Trump claims he has all the cards, and everyone must give in to his desires. This blog is devoted to public policy, ours, and other nations. Looking at things from the perspective of different countries, Trump’s contention isn’t necessarily so.

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Falling In Line

The most dismaying part of today’s public policy dysfunction is the willingness of people who know or should know what they’re saying, which isn’t true, to shape views to align with their group’s views rather than look at the actual data. Just this past week, two well-known sources of information said things unsupported by any facts. If you believed them, it could cause harm.

On his Fox business show, Larry Kudlow and the panel laughed at a Wall Street Journal article showing professionals selling while the public buys. With the market rallying, their clear implication was that the public is smarter than the professionals and buying now is a better bet than selling.

This assessment flies in the face of experience. One of the universal signs of a market top is widespread bullishness, especially among smaller investors. Small investors don’t have the information that the pros have access to. Who else is left to buy to increase prices when the public is all in? Basing your market outlook on the supposed stupidity of professionals and the bullish actions of the public hasn’t worked out well in the past.

I don’t know what will happen. If the tariffs stay high, it’s hard to see a solid future. However, if Trump makes a few inconsequential deals, like the one with the U.K., and then calls most of the tariffs off, it would surely improve the outlook. At this point, no one knows what Trump will do. I don’t think Trump knows.

Having served in both the Reagan and Trump administrations, Kudlow has a unique position. He knows the adverse effects of high tariffs well, so it’s baffling that he’s taken a bullish position with high tariffs still in effect. Implying that the pros do less well at market turns than the public to justify his pro-Trump position is out of place.

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Emily Post Values

I’m far from alone in being frozen in place rather than making everyday decisions in a timely fashion. It’s hard to make choices and commitments when the situation can change in a minute on a whim. The president explained what each nation would suffer from U.S. tariffs, complete with a visual aid, only to turn around and delay much of the implementation. Then came exemptions. Worse, the whipsaws often came while markets were open, so there was no time to evaluate.

It takes investment capital to create productive jobs; how can I or anyone else commit funds and effort under today’s circumstances? Franklin Roosevelt’s ever-changing policies prolonged the great depression, in my mind. Yet, Trump makes him look like the sole of consistency. Nothing seems safe. Even if you negotiated a trade agreement in Trump’s first term, the president unilaterally pulls out and enacts new terms. Do we have allies? Do we have friends? What are the rules? For how long?

We hear of dozens of nations lining up to come to terms. Maybe they just want answers to these questions. If I’m having problems going about my business under these circumstances, imagine what leaders of nations are going through.

There used to be rules of the road to avoid unintended collisions. When I grew up, it seemed everyone had a copy of Emily Post’s “On Etiquette” or something similar. While this may seem quaint today, it served a practical purpose, preventing misunderstandings that could create ill will when intending none. Simply forgetting to send a thank-you note or a reply sends the wrong message and ruins friendships. If you don’t intend a slight, do the right thing.

We have rules governing relations between nations, the government, and the people in the U.S. When someone runs roughshod over regulations and conventions, what’s the message? Some of them are treaties and legislation signed into law. Can you do your thing without regard for others, without sowing distrust and anger?

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Haven’t We Seen This Movie Before?

You’re settling in to spend an evening watching an interesting-sounding movie, only to realize you’ve already seen it. That’s the feeling I got when Trump suddenly reversed course and paused some of his tariffs for 90 days. The reason the administration and, indeed, Trump himself provided is that all those seventy-five nations already ripping us off, except for China, were lining up to lift their tariffs and other actions and finally move to free trade while leaving China on the outside. It’ll take time to accept their surrender.

Prominent countries named as heading up the list of supplicants were Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Australia. These names rang a bell. Haven’t we sat down with these countries and others and worked out a lowering of tariffs and other trade restraints in the past? Then it came to me; we negotiated a trade treaty with these nations and seven others that accomplished these goals. It was called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Negotiated over several years by then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who claimed “the deal set the ‘gold standard in trade agreements.” Twelve countries’ representatives O.K.’d the Treaty in 2016. It only needed to be sent to the Senate for approval by the new president.  

What happened then needs to be recalled and appraised in light of what is happening today. Donald Trump campaigned against the treaty, claiming it would join the already-in-effect NAFTA treaty in destroying middle America. This stance reflected his anti-free trade stance going back to the 1980s. What is surprising is that Hillary Clinton turned on her handiwork.

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