economy

Biden Lost It. What About Trump?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

We have experienced what was probably the biggest presidential cover-up in history, with the measures taken to hide Joe Biden’s cognitive decline. These stealth actions resulted in the disastrous Afghan pullout, the highest inflation in forty years, two wars, and an attempt to forgive billions of student loans simply by executive order. Only James Buchanan’s Administration compares in failure.

Now I’m worried we’re seeing a repeat, possibly on a grander scale. Given some of his actions, we have to consider that Donald Trump is increasingly delusional. Compared to the tired and confused Biden, many people will point to Trump’s hyperactivity as proving that old age isn’t affecting him. This conclusion ignores the fact that manic activity itself is a danger sign.

It’s difficult to believe that the people closest to us are unaware of a person’s decline or their personality traits becoming extreme. Just as the Democrats in and out of the white house had to know Biden wasn’t up to the job and getting worse, Republicans and others in the white house and Congress seem to ignore a troubled Trump.

Even with visual knowledge of Biden’s decline, Democrats discouraged anyone else from running for President. Dean Phillips, the only one who mounted a challenge, was ultimately driven from the party. For reasons of personal ambition, misplaced loyalty, a devious plan, or fear of reprisal, Democrats stood with Biden until a disastrous debate made his failing clear to everybody. Could something similar be taking place on the other side?

Tariffs are the centerpiece of the Trump administration, so that’s a good place to start. While not the easiest subject for an average person, it is undoubtedly within the realm of administration experts. Afghanistan seemed far away and wasn’t much on the public’s mind until the situation escalated. Tariffs aren’t easily understood, but they can now harm businesses, disrupt the nation’s finances, and even lead to a Constitutional crisis.

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Ballroom Or Royal Court

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

While we’re waiting for some possibly momentous news, such as the Israeli Defence Force finally finishing off Hamas in Gaza, a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, and a court ruling on Trump’s Tariffs, it might be a good time to reflect on some rules for leading to better government. A few posts ago, I featured an observation of the poorest performing nations, which were the ones where the state allocated resources and selected winners and losers rather than allowing the market to do the job.

What is the purpose of government other than providing the framework for its citizens to thrive? This structure must begin with the protection of body and property from arbitrary loss. Whether it’s an invader, thieves, or the government itself, you and your property are safe from capricious forces.

One of our great blessings is inheriting the English common law and the principles of representative government. We codified and expanded on these principles. An American citizen can’t be deprived of freedom or property without due process, as enshrined in our Constitution and its amendments, especially the first ten. Rather than a supreme leader doling out favors either directly or through subordinates, people should interact without government interference as much as possible.

These freedoms resulted in heretofore unheard-of economic growth, first in the British Isles, but followed closely by the young United States. The closer other nations emulated these two, the more their people benefited.

If you lack the basics of food, clothing, and shelter, not much else matters. In countries that provide a framework where people are free to choose not only the basics but also much more. (“More” in the sense of my series”The Long Journey to More”) The nations where rulers direct the economy struggle with even the essentials.

Marxists and other progressives claim that the expertise of an elite class can lead us to the promised land. The “best and the brightest,” rather than people interacting, know better. Those comprising the ruling elite live well, but the rest do not. In Cuba, Venezuela, or Argentina, where the state directs the economy, living standards fell.

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Topping Out?

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

Could we be at the apex of the second Trump administration? The president is claiming victory on every front. Major trade deals with the E.U. and Japan, among others, were announced, with markets reaching new highs. Everyone is bending a knee to the master of the deal. Everyone knows because Donald Trump is on TV around the clock, telling us how great everything is going. To hear him tell it, there is almost too much winning.

Just under the surface, one can see some big rocks that the Administration is approaching. Both Japan and the E.U. imports are subject to a fifteen percent tariff. This rate seems stiff and protective of our manufacturing industries, such as the automotive sector, but a closer look reveals a different picture.

Reason’s economic and trade writer, Eric Boehm, points out that our domestic carmakers are dependent on inputs from Canada and Mexico, which are subject to a 25 percent levy. Using lower-cost parts and materials, Toyota could build autos completely in Japan, pay the tariff, and still undercut our auto manufacturers. The companies and the auto workers are already complaining about the disadvantage.

71% of Toyota cars sold in the U.S. are made here. This production supports hundreds of thousands of jobs in the U.S. With the price advantages afforded by the agreement to produce in Japan, these jobs are at risk.

If the 15% rate is suitable for Japan to produce at home, the E.U., subject to the same rate, will find itself in a similar position. European auto makers also employ a large number of people in the U.S. The Street put it this way, “The Big 3 now has a similar problem with EU competitors, as their 15% duties pale in comparison to the 25% duties U.S. manufacturers have to pay to get their cars from their Canadian and Mexican plants.” 

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Some Things On My Mind

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

Catching up on some things I’ve commented on in the past. Remember when Donald Trump said he would end the Ukraine War in 24 hours? I made some suggestions on how he might accomplish this goal. Mainly, it consisted of ways to bring the pain of War to Russia—longer-range weapons to shoot back. As usual, the President ignores my advice. He still tells Ukraine not to hit key cities in Russia. Over half a year into his term, and the War rages on worse than ever.

After several pauses in aid to Ukraine, Trump has concluded that Putin is jerking him around. A former KGB officer can’t be trusted, who knew? Now he’s arranged to ship more arms to the embattled nation that our NATO allies will pay for. To many, this suggests a shift in Trump’s stance on the War.

I’m skeptical. The Washington Post’s David Ignatius, who in the past had good sources, says the new aid includes longer-range weapons and lifts range restrictions on some they already have. Still, unless these weapons hit the political centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg, it won’t matter that much. Till the people of these cities face the same terror that the citizens of Kyiv experience now, Putin has no incentive to change. Yet, Trump says Ukraine shouldn’t hit Moscow.

The President also threatened tough action on the sanctions-tariff front but gave Putin 50 days’ notice before any implementation. After more than six months, why so much time? Is it to head off the Senate from passing the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill? The Senate should pass the bill now with its significant bipartisan majority to send a message to both Putin and Trump.

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Trumping Trump

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized , , , ,

O.K., who left the closet door open and let Peter Navarro, the White House trade advisor, out? All I know is I woke up Friday morning to find Tariff Man, A.K.A. President Donald Trump had threatened the European Union with a 50% tariff on June 1st if they didn’t bend to his will. Added to this blast was a 25% tariff on any iPhones built outside the U.S. Apple has been moving production to India.

So much for the assurances uttered by those behind Trump’s first-term tax success; as I’ve pointed out, Larry Kudlow, Steve Moore, and Art Laffer led us to believe massive tariffs were only a tactic to obtain fairer trade terms. On “Liberation Day,” we saw high tariffs, only to be partially rolled back, but here we go again. How often do we hear the cry of “wolf” without any canine attack before we stop listening about wolves and anything else we hear from the Crier?

We may have legitimate complaints against our trading partners, and they have their concerns. But why not negotiate in good faith rather than making enemies out of friends and potential friends? Our relationship with Europe is already shaky over the Ukraine conflict and NATO. Do we need a more estrangement?

As the most populous nation on earth, India, as an ally, could help offset China. India is a rapidly developing nation willing to produce things we’ve been getting from China. We should be happy that Apple builds phones there rather than in China. No, Trump demands Apple make expensive phones in the U.S. India has every reason to feel stiffed by the U.S. Do we want to punish an American Tech company while we’re claiming that’s what the EU is doing? Why take business from India?

Trump claims he has all the cards, and everyone must give in to his desires. This blog is devoted to public policy, ours, and other nations. Looking at things from the perspective of different countries, Trump’s contention isn’t necessarily so.

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