Funny how things sometimes unfold in line with your thoughts. In my post two weeks ago, I pointed out that Trump’s reimposition of broad tariffs, taking effect, isn’t a sure thing. The administration promised speedy interest-bearing refunds to obtain a stay of the Court of International Trade’s (CIT) decision declaring the bulk of the president’s tariffs unconstitutional if the Government lost its appeals. Having lost in the Supreme Court, the administration now finds itself in an impossible situation.

You can bomb the hell out of the country, but you need forces on the ground to effect regime change. Nazi Germany was militarily superior to the British in WWII, but an all-out air campaign never broke them, without troops on the ground.

Last week, I wrote that the best bet to foster an armed Iranian uprising lay with the support of the Kurds on both sides of the Iran-Iraq border. However, our spotty treatment of this put-upon group might make them reluctant to bail us out:

In both cases, the administration appears not to have thought things through. Trying to slow down or block the refunds amounts to admitting it misled the courts. Now the refund case is back in the CIT, and Judge Richard Eaton has ordered the refunds. As the sole judge in charge of the refund cases, he has issued a straightforward ruling, leaving the Government no alternative but to do what it promised the courts.

Judge Eaton refused to issue a stay of his order pending the Government’s appeal. The Appeals Court has already delegated the CIT to handle the refunds, so it is unlikely to intervene. On Friday, the judge granted the Government more time after it admitted it had misled the courts and could not process the refunds immediately.

Given the Government’s history of promising speedy refunds if it loses, and then claiming it’s too difficult to issue quickly when the Supreme Court ruled against it, staying an adverse ruling in the CIT on the new 122 tariffs is anything but certain. Two dozen states are already filing suit against the new tariffs, and businesses are likely to be joined by those still suffering from the previous illegal tariffs. An injunction against their implementation is only just while awaiting a final decision.

Amid rumors that thousands of armed Iranian Kurds had crossed into Iran, and news that President Trump had called Kurdish leaders, it appeared possible that a Kurdish-protected safe organizing zone, which I felt was essential for regime change, was indeed part of the plan.

Alas, no such movement has taken place. The Kurds are in no hurry to join the fray. Taking incoming from Iran and Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq, in their autonomous zone in Iraq, they want support, giving protection, and ensuring success. Given the long history of U.S. betrayal of the Kurds, this is only prudent.

Unfortunately, without Kurdish help, it’s hard to see how an armed insurrection gets off the ground. Without arms and training, the insurgents will continue to get mowed down if they rise up.

So we have the two momentous Trump administration initiatives, wide-scale tariffs, and an all-out air war against Iran, causing worldwide upheaval without any obvious positive results on the horizon. The tariff chaos continues. Business planning is on hold in many cases.

Instead of regime change, freeing the Iranians from a religious dictatorship, Trump now seems to be looking for someone compliant with him in the present Government. Our president has not conferred with Iranian dissidents around the world. Perhaps he’s waiting for Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi to hand him her Nobel Prize to get an audience.

That’s what it took for the Venezuelan Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado to present her case for freedom. Unfortunately, Trump took the prize but kept much the same people in charge, and is splitting the country’s oil profits with them. In any case, Narges Mohammadi isn’t able to attend. Sentenced to an additional seven years in an Iranian prison, she is indisposed.

How leaving Iran in the hands of Iranian Shia fanatics, quietly seething for revenge, serves our long-term interests is a mystery. Leaving the crooks in charge of Venezuela poses the same question. We can’t keep fleets off their shores forever. It’s likely that at the first chance, they’ll revert to their old ways.

It doesn’t have to be this way. Instead of trying to get new tariffs, the administration, seeing the handwriting on the wall, could call them off, and say it’s going to Congress, as the courts have noted has the tariff power. This course would effectively kill the tariffs, as Congress isn’t about to accommodate Trump. The administration saves face, and Republicans dump a losing issue, leaving tax reductions and deregulation to goose the economy and improve their mid-term chances. Everyone can plan for the future.

Realizing the Kurds weren’t on board with running point in regime change for him, Trump now says he doesn’t want their help, even though he recently asked for it. This outcome isn’t a surprise, as Trump hasn’t given the Kurds any reason to trust him. Without a protected area for the opposition to organize, arm, and train, it’s hard to see how the Iranians ever get the freedom they desire, and we get real peace.

One possible way is to get Israelis to take the lead with the Kurds. Unlike Trump, they and the Kurds havea common foe in Turkey, and its new satellite, Syria. Drawing the U.S.’s attention from the Middle East could occur any time, but it’s Israel’s neighborhood. By hobbling all the present regimes’ armed forces in the Kurdish Areas, with its airpower, and supplying needed arms, a partnership between the two might work to effect regime change. The U.S. could quietly add support, but realize only the Israelis can gain the trust required.

It’s not too late to regain the right direction for both trade and Iran, but this all requires Trump to accept that what he’s doing isn’t working. Possibly, there is someone around him who can lead him to the light, but given his phalanx of fawning courtiers who make up his administration, you have to wonder who. That’s the rub: if such people existed in Trump’s circle, maybe we wouldn’t be in these situations in the first place.