The most dismaying part of today’s public policy dysfunction is the willingness of people who know or should know what they’re saying, which isn’t true, to shape views to align with their group’s views rather than look at the actual data. Just this past week, two well-known sources of information said things unsupported by any facts. If you believed them, it could cause harm.

On his Fox business show, Larry Kudlow and the panel laughed at a Wall Street Journal article showing professionals selling while the public buys. With the market rallying, their clear implication was that the public is smarter than the professionals and buying now is a better bet than selling.

This assessment flies in the face of experience. One of the universal signs of a market top is widespread bullishness, especially among smaller investors. Small investors don’t have the information that the pros have access to. Who else is left to buy to increase prices when the public is all in? Basing your market outlook on the supposed stupidity of professionals and the bullish actions of the public hasn’t worked out well in the past.

I don’t know what will happen. If the tariffs stay high, it’s hard to see a solid future. However, if Trump makes a few inconsequential deals, like the one with the U.K., and then calls most of the tariffs off, it would surely improve the outlook. At this point, no one knows what Trump will do. I don’t think Trump knows.

Having served in both the Reagan and Trump administrations, Kudlow has a unique position. He knows the adverse effects of high tariffs well, so it’s baffling that he’s taken a bullish position with high tariffs still in effect. Implying that the pros do less well at market turns than the public to justify his pro-Trump position is out of place.