Recent events have added credibility to some of my posts. Not long ago, I cautioned that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) series of interest rate cuts might be at odds with the actual inflation outlook. The Biden spending spree adds to our high national debt, while the Social Security (S.S.) Trust Fund runs dry at best in ten years, with both parties adding to the program woes. Medicare may be in even worse shape.

Biden’s proposals will increase S.S. payouts to government retirees, and with Trump’s plan not to tax any S.S. income, retiree checks could face cuts even sooner. Maintaining the current level of payments will mean even more government borrowing. Already expected to lend trillions more, bond buyers must absorb more extensive offerings in the future. In the face of increasing interest rate risk, they’ll want more upfront.

The first chart is the inflation rate, showing it is still above the 2 % target:

This chart shows the Fed’s interest rate cuts:

While the U.S. 10yr Bond interest rate returned to near its highs:

Mortgage rates stay high:

This week, the Fed cut short-term rates another quarter point but said it would probably cut two times next year instead of the signaled four. The Dow dropped over 1,100 points. Confusion is the only explanation.

I’ve written extensively about the Middle East. Rather than backing either Sunni or Shiite groups, I proposed backing the much-abused Kurds. The fourth largest ethnic group in the Middle East, they’re a sizeable minority in Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Iran, with an estimated total of between 30 and 45 million people. Abused in these countries where they’re a minority, with U.S. backing, they could apply pressure on all of them. This fact could give us leverage on each. I spelled it out before:

The mauling of Iran and its proxies by Israel and Russia’s losses in Ukraine allowed Turkish-backed Sunni Islamists to overrun significant parts of Syria, forcing the Assad government to collapse:

While on the surface, this state of affairs is a good thing, it just replaces Iran with Turkey as the Islamic Leader in Syria. Both Iran and Turkey are anti-Israel. Both vie for dominance over other Middle Eastern nations to recreate past empires. As I feared, the deck chairs shuffled without fundamental change.

Turkey lost no time in attacking Syrian Kurds. So far, the U.S. has done nothing to support them. These are the same Kurds that protected the Yazidi and Christians from ISIS and were the main fighting force in bringing down their Caliphate. The Kurds had thousands of casualties, while we had few.

The Teamster’s Union calls for a strike against Amazon just before Christmas—the same Union whose president spoke at the Republican National Convention. Unions have had some revival under the Biden Administration. A Favorable National Labor Relations Board decision and, in effect, requiring Union labor for work and subsidies under the Build Back Better and the Inflation Reduction Act have momentarily halted the decades-long membership slide in private industry. At this late date, are Unions on the march?

These recent occurrences will spotlight Donald Trump’s positions. Like most real estate developers, Trump favors low interest rates. Can the Fed continue to cut short-term rates if the 10-year Treasury rates stay stubbornly near their highs or break out to new highs? If, instead, the Fed reverses and considers raising rates in response to the market, will Trump go ballistic and pressure the Fed? Already, he has let his dislike for the Fed chairman, Jerone Powell, be known.

Richard Nixon, facing reelection, pushed the then-Fed chairman, Burns, to keep rates low. Arthur Burns succumbed, and we had high inflation into the 1980s. Does anybody want a repeat of “The Great Inflation?”

In his previous term, Trump wanted to pull our small forces guarding against ISIS or something similar, returning to the area. Talked out of it, then by those pointing out the dangers, Trump still says it’s not our fight and we should leave. If we do go and thereby force the Kurds to withdraw, what happens to the thousands of extremist prisoners they control? What does it say about us if we turn away from these brothers in arms? Does Trump back Turkish strongman Erdogan replacing Iran’s influence in the area or support our friends?

Support for the Kurds could pay dividends in the area. With a much weakened Iran, they could provide the backbone for Iraq’s need to get rid of the Iranian-backed militias and be truly independent. Further, a weakened Iran doesn’t want problems with its Kurdish minority. This increased leverage would bode well for both the U.S. and Israel. Favoring Erdagon’s Turkey brings another of Israel’s enemies closer.

People have been turning their backs on union membership in the private sector for decades, which should make us question whether unions have any place in these times. One can understand the Democrats’ support for unions; they provide the party with funds and human resources. What’s Trump’s attraction for organized labor?

Many union members voted for Trump without the approval of union leadership, so why seek union leaders’ endorsements? Trump’s comments on longshoreman negotiations are a head-scratcher. “There has been a lot of discussion having to do with ‘automation’ on United States docks,” Mr. Trump said. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.” Machines are replacing labor; how dare they? No, Luddite said it better.

How Trump answers these questions will tell us who Trump is and whether the new administration will succeed or fail. Lincoln said, “A House divided against itself cannot stand.” A man divided against himself will have an even harder time. Unlike Reagan or Thatcher, who had a governing philosophy, Trump is a walking contradiction. Narcissists don’t have coherent philosophies, just themselves.