The Biden administration claims it can do little about inflation and leaves it up to the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tame prices. The Fed can bring inflation to heel if it will raise interest above the expected inflation rate. Anything less adds to costs while still encouraging borrowing. For instance, you’re buying a house with a 5% mortgage. It sounds high by recent standards, but if inflation is over 8%, the actual rate is -3 plus the interest tax deduction. This interest rate won’t deter people from buying houses or other capital goods. It just adds to demand and costs. Aso, don’t forget rising interest rates add 100s of billions to what we pay on our national debt, adding to rather than solving the problem.
However, if you drive up the interest rate above today’s 8-9% inflation, the economy probably will fall out of bed as it did in the early 1980s. People forget at the same time Fed. Chair Paul Volker was driving interest rates to 18%; we laid the groundwork for a rapid recovery.
The Carter Administration deregulated industries such as Airlines, Railroads, and Telecommunications. Pres. Reagan extended this trend by dumping gasoline price controls, among others. He also cut taxes where inflation had pushed people into ever higher brackets. These were all supply-side incentives and turned the early ’80s recession into the excellent expansion that continued through the ’90s.
It may be too late to avoid a recession, but we can try. Biden needs to emulate Carter and Reagan by expanding goods and services rather than maintaining his current roadblocks. The quicker we increase supply, the less the Fed will need to raise interest rates.
Energy is essential to everything we do; it’s the place to start. Once again, let me lay out the economics. I’ve said it before, the view our future production doesn’t affect world prices is bogus. Yet, the Washington Post economics writer Charlotte Rampell echoes others by saying our energy production doesn’t affect prices.Continue reading