We Need Change-Not Vindication

My series on Covid 19 started on March 20, 2020. It seems almost a lifetime ago when the US shut down “to slow the spread.” At the time, I looked at what was known and the data available and concluded a general lockdown was a terrible idea—a targeted approach protecting those at most risk and ending lockdowns before they did significant damage was the right way. Chapter and verse of my proposals to keep the nation, especially the schools, open while doing everything possible to limit the loss of the vulnerable are there for anyone to see.

The government bureaucratic establishment, relying on Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College model, came down solidly in favor of lockdowns and not for just a few weeks. They told us if we didn’t close down, millions more would be sure to die—anyone coming to a different conclusion labeled as favoring mass death. Even though many people quickly concluded the Imperial College model was defective, much of the world remained shut down.

This week a John’s Hopkins economic Metastudy concluded the lockdowns were a disaster. Researchers looked at 22 studies and found no gain while enumerating the massive costs. A .02% reduction in deaths didn’t come close to offsetting the enormous harm they caused. This study vindicates all those suffering establishment abuses for predicting this outcome and proposing a different path from the beginning.

Neil Ferguson of defective Imperial model fame and University of Oxford’s Seth Flaxman challenged the study. The latter is the lead author on a 2020 study that estimated that lockdowns had likely saved up to three million lives across Europe. So far, I haven’t found r any others.  Flaxman’s figures appear based on the Imperial Model.

No wonder they’re upset. One doesn’t have to go over the studies to conclude who’s correct. We have empirical evidence. New York hewed to the lockdown line, while Florida went with the targeted approach early on. If Ferguson and Flaxman are correct, Florida should have more covid deaths. Their model calls for the difference to be substantial. Even though Florida has a larger population, both have recorded about the same number of deaths. When we Adjust for the fact that Florida has the most people over 65 as a percent of the people, along with Maine, it’s clear the lockdown proponents had it wrong.

Most of us proposing the targeted approach put stock in Natural Immunity from previous Covid infections playing a part in gaining ground on the pandemic. US bureaucratic lockdown proponents hardly recognized its existence. While Europe and Israel gave it equal status with vaccinations in rulemaking, the US ignored it. This myopia has led to penalizing of the naturally immune. People who would enjoy the same position as the vaccinated in Europe lost their jobs in the US. This punishment is at a time of a severe labor shortage contributing to record inflation.

After nearly two years of unnecessary harm, the CDC finally noticed natural immunity. Its new report finally acknowledges — “that surviving COVID-19 provides excellent natural immunity not only against repeat infection but also to hospitalization and death for the delta variant of COVID-19.” Better late than never, I suppose. Many have known this from the beginning. We need to apply the findings immediately to limit further harm.

One of the first things I recommended back in March 2020 is to look in our existing medicine cabinet. We need to see if anything we had or adaptable is helpful to mitigate Covid. Common sense says we should investigate cheaply available treatments showing any promise. Of course, many won’t work, but some might. Timely studies would’ve avoided the ugly fights over such medicines as hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin.

Fluvoxamine is a possibility to prevent hospitalization and death. The $4 dosage anti-depressant is used in Ontario, Canada, tested elsewhere. With so many breakthrough infections and the severe shortage of therapeutics, we shouldn’t overlook anything.  

I recommended right from the start the sunshine vitamin D3. Recent research shows that a vitamin D deficiency significantly increases your risk of severe Covid. Some ethnic groups test chronically low. People need even more as they age. Taking D3 in the proper amounts has substantial health benefits beyond Covid. A year’s supply is $15 on Amazon. My doctor said I needed more years ago, and I’ve taken it since. You may have the same problem.

In my March 26, 2020, Post “Have We Really Thought This Through?” I proposed things to protect the at-risk, “Even today, we haven’t taken many of the most straightforward targeted measures to protect the most vulnerable. For instance, Honeywell and 3M are increasing the production of n95 masks by 1 1/2 million a day. Wouldn’t it make sense to make some of these available to 1-2 % of most at risk? These could be used whenever they have to interact with others. Older people and others at high risk still need to eat and procure necessities.” 

US masking policy has been an embarrassment. Over the past two years, we’ve been told masks don’t work, wear masks of any kind, and wear two. Finally, back to only n95 type masks work. Now the government is distributing n95 masks to the general public for free. Still, no effort to ensure the at-risk have them.

Europe doesn’t mandate masks for children. Requiring the masking of US children is a significant error. The small risk isn’t worth the apparent downside to child development. The new Virginia Governor is in court over school mask mandates. Other states are coming to their senses and dumping mask mandates. Even the President’s home state, Deleware, is unmasking. 

Being able to say “I told you so” isn’t very gratifying when you realize the amount of harm done by policies we put in place. I think almost a million people who signed the Great Barrington Resolution (GBD) feel vindicated. But mainly they feel sadness for about results from its rejection. Ignoring the data and demeaning those seeking to follow it marked our medical bureaucrat’s actions. 

Reading this post may be the first time you’ve heard of these studies and changes. That’s because the media has ignored them. The same medical bureaucrats led by Dr. Anthony Fauci are still in place.

With many nations coming to their senses and easing restrictions, maybe we all will adopt the targeted approach we should’ve taken from the beginning. Even Liberal Comedian Bill Maher now says, ” Doesn’t it make more sense to focus on helping the vulnerable stay safe and let the rest of us go back to living normal lives.” Where have you heard this sentiment before? I wonder if he’s signed the GBD? The question is, what took everyone so long? 

3 thoughts on “We Need Change-Not Vindication

  1. A doctor on Senator Ron Johnson’s COVID-19 panel stated that since we know it is a respiratory virus we ought to be killing it where it lives when first contracted. He carries around a nasal spray! You are absolutely right: a little common sense would have gone a long long way from the get go.

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  2. Your comment on Nasal spray fits right in my look in the medicine cabinet approach. One would think some of the 74 billion combined budgets of the NIH, CDC, and FDA could have gone to uniform testing anything showing promise. If that wasn’t enough, adding a slice of the 5.4 trillion we are spending on Covid to evaluate possible solutions could bring a significant return in lives saved. We have to do better.

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    • Agree. Honestly, though, there are qualified experts as well as regular people trying. They’ve been trying since the beginning, tackling the virus as their education and experience taught them, identifying the characteristics they know about and brainstorming on those they did not. It was never covered in the media but they knew fairly quickly the basic parameters of what we were dealing with, how it was transmitted, duration and important distinctions for those who could recover from home and those who needed hospital care. They almost unanimously stated that it is not the COVID-19 virus that killed people but rather certain body’s responses to it, such as inflammation and clotting, both of which have tried and true treatments known to the medical community for years. The doctors and scientists’ similar stories of censorship, cancelation and firing from hospitals and life-long careers when they attempted to discuss or, worse, treat patients is stunning.

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