Less than two months from the 2018 midterm congressional election and we hear the usual cries of the “most important election of our lifetime.” We even heard this from former Pres. Obama. The direction of the country will be altered forever. Don’t you believe it. There three possible outcomes and none of them will materially change our course.
The first possible outcome is also the most likely. The House goes Democrat while the Senate stays Republican. Rather than changing course think of a nation becalmed pretty much where we are right now. Our world leadership continues to recede while financial problems continue to grow. Neither President Trump or a Democratic house will be inclined to take the robust actions needed to maintain the liberal world order. Any agreement with the House will be to spend more not less. Both Trump and the Democrats have campaigned on not touching entitlements. Can anyone even imagine an immigration bill being passed? However, more originalist judges would be appointed. While there will be surely more congressional executive branch investigations, impeachment won’t get very far in the face of certain failure in the Senate. If Mueller comes up with the goods on the President, resignation as in the case of Nixon would be more likely. Then it’s President Pence. Little or no problems solving will occur and this is the best election outcome.
The Democrats winning both houses would present a louder version of the first outcome with maybe no judges being appointed. Why louder? Almost all the potential Democratic Presidential hopefuls reside in the Senate. Booker, Warren, Harris and Sanders will be fighting for publicity every waking moment. If Beto O’Rourke bests Ted Cruz in Texas, the decibel level could be ear shattering. Think of the Kavanaugh hearings on steroids. However, the chances for impeachment would go up with the Democrats in control of the Senate. It would be very hard for the party to resist Tom Steyers and the far left when your Presidential hopefuls are looking for their support. Still little or nothing will get done but it will be much louder and uglier.
A triumphant Trump retaining control of government with subservient Republican majorities, would be something to behold. This would affirm in his mind his own infallibility. What restraint on him would exist? If the Republicans actually increase their majority in the Senate the few Republican critics left in congress would be marginalized. After all, Coker and Flake have been forced out and their demise isn’t lost on other Senators. Any future in the party would be dependent on your fealty to Trump. After grabbing another defeat from the jaws of victory, the Democrats would be even more impotent if that’s possible as they tear themselves apart placing blame. Ultimately, it might result in a redirection of the party. A good place to start would be acknowledgement of the actual history of Socialism. Given past experience and the primary system the more likely outcome would be to move the party even further left. Welcome to Donald Trump’s second term.
If these outcomes keep you up at night as they do us, you have to ask yourself what am I doing to change things? Whether you’re major donor or a small one are you still giving your money to one of the major parties hoping they will miraculously retreat from the fringes? Isn’t it time to head in a new direction? Isn’t it time for a better choice? Time for a “Future Party.”