Watching Florida Representative Mile Walsh explain why he was enthusiastically backing former President Trump, I was struck by the incoherence of his answer. While he conceded Ron DeSantis was a fine governor of his state, he indicated our problems were so severe that we needed someone to “hit the ground running.” We face many serious issues requiring solutions, but why would Trump be your choice? 

The first thing any candidate needs to do to effect change is get elected. How likely is Trump to return to the White House? Let’s look at possible scenarios. Even though most voters don’t want it, the nation expects the election to be a rerun of ’20 with Biden and Trump.

The latest polls show a statistical dead heat. everything is within the margin of error. Trump may have a slight edge. Even against the most unpopular president anyone can remember, Trump gains no distance. The public has about the same distaste for both.

For a moment, let’s assume Trump ekes out a ’16-type victory. Democrats are more successful in the latest gerrymandering, have a better ground game, and we have some poor Republican candidates, such as Kerry Lake, in Arizona; the Democrats will likely retain at least one house of Congress. Add the fact Trump is a lame duck on day one, and it’s hard to see him accomplishing much of anything, and this is the best Trump outcome. 

Trump’s legal problems may still hurt him, the economy improves, or both, and Biden wins. Given how close the polls this is entirely possible. Instead of making positive changes, we continue to march down the progressive road.