I can’t help thinking we’re in some mirror image of the Biden presidency. It’s a funny house mirror, to be sure, but a mirror nonetheless. An aging president is exhibiting strange behavior, and the people around him and his supporters in the media assure us there is nothing to see here. The president is at the top of his game. Deluged today with books exposing Joe Biden’s cognitive decline, will books describe the coverup of Donald Trump’s decline four years hence?

Trump,suporters point to his suceesses. The “businessman” knows how to make deals. A slew of executive orders has changed almost everything. The border is secure. Tariffs force manufacturing to return to the Rust Belt, and foreigners invest trillions in the U.S., creating many good-paying jobs.

Remember the early euphoria over Joe Biden’s string of legislative successes? Finally, an infrastructure bill to fix everything, the Inflation Reduction Act to save the planet. Joe rivaled FDR or even exceeded him. Biden’s experience in foreign affairs will keep the peace. Democrats were elated.

Now, all this seems so long ago. Joe’s foreign affairs expertise brought us the horrendous Afghan withdrawal, the ongoing wars in Ukraine, and the Middle East. His Inflation Reduction Act gave us the highest inflation in forty years. Biden and his backers forgot that weakness invites aggression, and wild spending brings rising prices.

With things going awry, people started questioning the president’s competence. His stumbling, sometimes incoherent actions caused alarm. Yet everyone, from the White House to Biden’s legions of media supporters, told us Joe was sharp as a tack.

When the Wall Street Journal said otherwise, the whole media seemed down on the paper. Biden supporters ignored the dangers of the Afghan withdrawal or wild spending. The news media ‘s job is to alert people to possible problems, but they see none; if they do, they keep it to themselves. One book after another implies the administration’s abundant failures were due to Biden’s decline.

We’re at a point where it is impossible to comment on the present administration’s policies. Trump’s pledge to end both the Ukraine and Gaza wars quickly has dissolved into continued bloodshed, with only a few hostages returned and some prisoners exchanged. The administration apparently may move away from peace efforts. We must wait for information on what the administration is up to now.

There are three ways our tariff policy could go. First, Trump could come to his senses and reverse most of these taxes. The loss of trust in the U.S. will remain, but it mayn’t get worse.

On the other hand, if Trump truly wants us to produce everything within our borders, he has to raise the walls so high that nothing comes in from abroad. Of course, if nothing comes in, we take in no revenue—just higher prices and less choice.  

The third outcome may be an expanded version of Trump’s first-term approach: imposing tariffs and negotiating a patchwork of cut-outs and individual deals with countries, industries, and companies.

If I had to bet, I’d go with the last option. An endless procession of supplicants competing for favor is a narcissist’s dream. Of course, granting favors to those best appealing to his vanity would be a mercantilist economy on steroids—cronyism rules. Will this work better now than in the past?

While waiting for the fog to clear, it’s a good time to deal with the sudden spate of books and articles on Biden’s cognitive decline by people who were aware of it or should’ve been aware the former president wasn’t on top of his game.

As we enter 2025, some ’24 mysteries remain unresolved. Donald Trump ran his successful campaign with a variety of seemingly contradictory positions. I was reminded of these when the Cafe Hayek blog pointed to economist Mark Perry’s illustration:

This contradiction made me think of other Trump contradictions. Peace and safety while withdrawing our troops from the Middle East. Without our support, the Kurds overseeing tens of thousands of ISSIS followers may face an attack by Turkish forces, rendering them unable to prevent a resurgence of the deadly group. Remember, Turkish leader Erdogan has territorial ambitions of his own. This possibility doesn’t sound peaceful to me.

We all know that politicians make all sorts of claims that step on each other, but now it’s time to introduce legislation, and conflicts remain unresolved. The idea is to write one or two big reconciliation bills containing the whole Trump program.

Inflation is a paramount issue that accounts for Trump’s victory, yet many of the president-elect’s promises are likely to raise prices. Besides tariffs that, like sales taxes, increase what you’re paying, lower taxes for favored groups, such as those working for tips or retirees, will likely result in higher interest rates or printing money. As I’ve pointed out, either will raise prices.

Unquestionably, the Biden Administration’s wild spending on the Green New Deal, infrastructure, and chips led to the highest inflation in forty years, but will Trump attempt to repeal all of this legislation? Taken together, these acts are an enormous industrial policy. Repeal all since state-directed economies have no record of success.

The question is whether Trump will tackle the problems wholeheartedly or simply piecemeal. The latter will be conflict on conflict. For instance, will Trump’s buddy, Elon Musk, stand still for eliminating his electric vehicle incentives and green tax credit sales? Will members of Congress allow the scrapping of big projects scheduled for their districts? Many businesses have sunk big money based on the Biden-era legislation. Can they continue without the promised subsidies and credits, or must they swallow significant losses on sunk costs? Even major oil companies put big bucks into green projects.