Trump’s Health Plan-Nothing really new here.  There’s no way this plan would have a positive effect on health care costs other than being able to buy policies across state lines. This of course has been part of virtually every alternative plan including our “Dave’s Plan”,but by itself it can’t hope to make a meaningful reduction of costs. Remember our plan (for new readers find under Policy the series describing the plan) aims to actually bend the cost curve down by on one side making people spend for healthcare out of their own savings (Personal Benefits Accounts PBAs) while relieving providers of the bulk of paperwork and credit risks associated with healthcare. These kind of market pressures have resulted in lower costs in other fields and we have no reason to believe it won’t have the same effect in healthcare.On the other hand, by covering preexisting conditions, tax breaks and further expansion of medicare, the Trump Plan could indeed cost even more than Obamacare. Dave’s plan initially could also add to cost but only because it covers everybody, but it does it with exactly the same cost per person as Obamacare. Future costs will be reduced by it’s powerful market features. Add complete portability and leveling the playing field between small and large businesses and we really have a plan that empowers individuals in their own healthcare. Against this, Trump’s Plan seems to be a grab bag of previously advanced ideas without serious intent. It’s probably a good thing that the plan’s ideas are so old that the statute of limitations probably prevents him from  being sued.

Trump winning-People have said we were wrong in our prediction that Trump had topped out.(Hitting the Ceiling 3/3/16 Commentary) We concede nothing. Trump has been winning more delegates in a divided field, but he has done it with virtually the same 30-40%. He is now faced with having to acquire the needed 1237 delegates before the convention or be faced with some ugly alternatives and unless he can expand his base it’s unlikely he gets there. With his increasing opposition from women,  foreign policy flubs and total incoherence on abortion expanding his base is increasingly a mirage. If he is unable to win on the first ballot, he’s done.  Trump has no chance on future ballots. The delegates just aren’t his people. Trump needs to win Wisconsin and then get over 50% in New York to be a winner taking all to have a clear path to 1237. Stumble on either and the path looks like a contested convention. Losing both would be a Trump’s worst nightmare. On the eve of the Wisconsin Primary it doesn’t look promising for Trump. Polls show him with a wide over 50% lead in New York  but this could be a double edged sword. a slippage especially under 50% and all the news will be how he is slipping which could further his downward momentum. At some point he’ll have to confront the possibility of a convention 1st ballot loss. If he can’t reach 1237 before Cleveland on his own he’ll have to use his supposed negotiating skills to make a deal or deals to get there. The problem is with who? Continue reading →

While this morning all the noise is about how Donald Trump is going to take over the country, may we just say that the Donald has already peaked. Didn’t anyone notice while we had big Republican Super Tuesday turnout with all this these supposed new voters, Donald got the same mid 30% of the vote he has been getting. Even though some polls showed him expanding his base he under performed across the board. Generally at this point in the primaries the leader is expanding his or her’s base. Instead the exit polls 50% 0f the expanded number of voters said they really don’t like him. In other words, Trump is   bringing out equal or greater numbers of people who are against him. This is horrible math for the front runner. The under performance was after less than a week of sustained attacks on Trump. A lot of votes had already have been mailed in before his last horrible debate performance and the attacks. It is hard to see his base growing in the face of these sustained attacks he will see all the way to the election if he ever gets that far.

Why he wasn’t exposed earlier, will be question for the ages, but it’s started and it is a target rich environment. Maybe the Republicans took it easy on him, but the Democrats won’t. All his bigotry and misogyny will be used to gin up the opposition while leaving him stuck with a minority of a minority base.? Of the 50% of Republicans that really don’t like or worse fear him form a huge pond for the Dems to fish in. Many won’t vote Dem but won’t vote for Trump either. Another candidate or write ins are always a possible. For a candidate that hasn’t received 50% in any primary, where exactly does he go for votes? If he actually gets the nomination he may add those getting  or hope to get a check from the party and those who habitually without thought vote Republican. Not much there to expand the his base. After all how many Christies are there? Yesterday will be remembered as Trump’s best day. A deeply flawed system may let him win the nomination with far from a majority of voters but the nomination under these circumstances will be fool’s gold. It will be all down hill for Trump from  here.

Nobody seems to have thought of the irreparable harm Trump win or lose will do to his brand. Half of the country would avoid staying at an Obama Hotel. Let’s play golf at the Obama club? That’s if he wins. More likely he loses but is faced the major discomfort women would feel having anything to do with the Trump name. Given the wide choice of hotels, office building and golf clubs, why would anybody take the real chance of offending. Hispanic groups, you have to be kidding. The value of saying I live in a Trump Tower would take on a whole new meaning. One that wouldn’t denote increased value.

That brings up the question of judgement not only of Donald Trump but of his family. Anyone looking at Trump’s financial statements would quickly surmise that his greatest asset and the one that everything else hangs on is the Trump name. Why would you risk everything knowing that name for many will become synonymous with bigotry and misogyny. It’s impossible not to clearly see the harm when millions and millions of dollars will make that perfectly clear. Maybe Donald is an out of control narcissist,but where are his supposedly brilliant children? Are these actual Stepford Children? Sell out first then run would’ve made sense to anyone but maybe that would’ve shown his empire wasn’t what he claimed. The real worth of anything is always what someone is willing to pay. From this day forward, the Trumps will find their speedy trip to Ego City ends going off a cliff. Everyone should’ve seen it coming. Unfortunately a lot of other s will also suffer. But that has never been a Trump concern. Check his numerous bankruptcies.

Willpower challenged New Jersey Governor Chris Chistie has endorsed Donald Trump, a man who according to Salon “he previously had repeatedly deemed as not “suited” for the presidency due to, among others, his positions on illegal immigration and his desire to bar Muslims from entering the country. The rhetoric flowing back and forth had been toxic for months before the primary in New Hampshire. Why anyone would endorse a man who had told everyone that he knew all about his administration’s traffic lane scandal before it happened isn’t known.” It is widely speculated Christie was promised a big job. Who knows. After all self discipline has never been a Christie strong point. Remember how he had Laparoscopic surgery before his doomed presidential run to reverse his rapidly expanding girth? Al Roker had the same surgery and millions saw his marvelous improvement. Christie didn’t loose even one of his chins. Obviously, he doesn’t have the willpower to pass up any meatball sandwich offered. With his dismal loss in New Hampshire the only state he actually competed in, voters showed they weren’t about to entrust the health of the country to someone who thinks so little of his own. Continue reading →

Could a party’s future ever look better than the Republican going into the 2016 election? It controlled both houses of congress, a solid majority of governors and state legislatures. An incumbent democratic president underwater in popularity and an electorate  convinced we were on the wrong track. The potential democrat nominee was either a baggage laden distrusted loser or an old socialist. The Republicans on the other hand could choose between a raft of young bright attractive candidates. So how did we get to this point where a recent convert businessman with a similar business model as the Kardashian’s and highest unfavorable ratings of any candidate is poised to win the Republican nomination? Continue reading →