Having more information leads to better decisions. Being exposed to more ideas expand our choices. We all know this, so why do people cut themselves from data and ideas? When leaders do this, bad things can happen. We are now living the results of leaders acting with limited knowledge.
Presidents Putin and Biden are reluctant to allow diverse ideas and data in their inner circles. The consequences are all too evident in the current Ukraine War. Dictators almost always suffer from the absence of contrary views. If someone presents the correct information or course of action, they can be in prison or dead. These possible outcomes hardly encourage wide-ranging discussions.
Did anyone give Putin an accurate picture of the Russian military? Was it able to carry out the grand invasion plan? After the first two days, it was evident the answer was no. Somebody had to be aware of the military’s failings, but it never got through to Putin. The word is Putin is furious at his Generals, but would he have listened if they leveled with him? Would they even survive?
“For god’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” cried President Biden at the end of his speech in Warsaw on his four-day trip to Europe. Biden was finally committing to doing whatever it took to separate Putin from power in Russia. A Putin defeat in Ukraine was a path to change. Coupled with his labeling Putin a butcher and a war criminal, it was a clear call for regime change in Russia.
As Biden’s strong words circled the globe, the administration told us the President didn’t mean regime change. “I think the President, the White House made the point last night that, quite simply, President Putin cannot be empowered to wage war or engage in aggression against Ukraine or anyone else,” Secretary of State Blinken said. Of course, this doesn’t sound anything like what the President actually said.
Much of the press claimed Biden echoed Ronald Reagan’s “Tear down this wall” Berlin speech. Reagan meant what he said and stood by it. Regime change joined with Biden telling the 82nd Airborne what they’ll witness when they’re in Ukraine. Add we will respond in kind to the Russian use of chemical weapons to the gaffs needing to be walked back on his European trip. At least, Biden claimed s “moral outrage.”
Biden finds Russia’s behavior in Ukraine appalling, but Russia is presently negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran for us. The agreement benefits Putin with enriched uranium and orders for two atomic plants. Is Putin a pariah or a trusted negotiating partner?
Biden promised Europe natural gas to replace its dependence on Russian supplies on the trip. His administration has done everything to diminish our oil and gas production. Export gas terminals and pipelines languish without permits. Where is the extra gas to come from?
A little-reported topic of discussion is a potential of a world food shortage due to the war. Ukraine and Russia are significant exporters of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil.
Due to tight supplies, energy and food prices rose before the war. Now the problems can only worsen. Increasing supply has to be prioritized immediately to avoid out-of-control inflation and starvation.
Using more fertilizer can increase crop yields, but it’s mostly made from fossil fuels. There have been calls for a “project warp speed” for oil and gas production. U.S. production trails our pre-covid levels. Favorable government policies can increase both near and long-term output.
Millions of barrels of non-OPEC oil and gas equivalent entering the market in the future can change the actions of those with excess capacities, such as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. If supplies continue tight, it pays them to hold back production to get the most for each barrel. If new output seems likely to replace their sales, it pays to sell at today’s high prices before losing market share and revenue. Future expectations influence current prices and actions. That’s why we have futures markets for almost everything.
Another way to replace lost food commodities is simply to plant more acreage. Every acre sowed increases supply. In both Europe and the U.S., we have taken considerable land out of production.
The reasons for this range from supporting prices to environmental concerns. The U.S. can provide leadership to encourage or shame Europe to follow.
Sadly, indifference or outright rejection has met the need to increase supply. The administration is still warring on fossil fuels, and no one has even mentioned planting more acreage. Has anyone seen Secretary of Agriculture, Thomas Vilsack, instituting a land unretirement program? It’s already spring. Many crops are sowed now or shortly.
All of this came to the fore in just the past week. Incompetence is revealed at an ever-increasing pace. Starting in January, I’ve presented evidence of the Biden administration’s inadequacies. If something can be mishandled, they’ll find a way. Getting up in the morning, you fear what else they screwed up.
If we can see an administration giving James Buchanan’s a run for the money as the worst presidency ever, the whole world also sees it. Yet, there is no recognition by those in charge of mistakes that have been and continue to be made. The same faces that told us how well they were handling Afghanistan, the border, covid, and inflation are still communicating to an increasing unbelieving public both here and abroad.
When other administrations had difficulty, they changed the personnel or direction. This administration does neither. Instead, it proclaims they’re doing great. A defeat in the midterms may finally bring change, but it may be too late. Ukrainians are dying, masses are crossing our southern border, and inflation is raging. Can’t anybody wake Joe up?
We continue to make the error: looking short term when a longer-range solution might be more profitable. Putin has given us an opening, and we should take advantage. By publicizing his plans to use contractors to bring in foreign fighters, probably from Syria, he opened the door to the Democracies to do the same. It is not an escalation to do the same thing. Their foreign fighters are armed to the teeth. We can do the same. The problem for Putin is we can do it on a grander scale.
Foreigners fighting in someone else’s war is nothing new. The Lafayette Escadrille in World War I, the Eagle Squadrons, and the Flying Tigers in World War II were made up of Americans before we entered. Many Americans and other non-Spaniards fought in the Spanish civil war. We had more contractors in Afghanistan than we had military.
Given our long experience with contractors and CIA black ops, speeding up “Freedom Units” assembly areas with air defense systems in Western Ukraine is well within reach. Air and ground units trained and integrated. The number of the volunteers left open-ended. Good pay, conditions, and high purpose provide an ever-expanding force. So far, plenty of people is already showing up.
Given the Russian battlefield performance to date, these air and ground units could be a body blow to Russian morale. The Russians might divert forces to attack the assembly areas, but they would pay a steep price if we recruited the right people with solid weapons. Pulling Russian Resources away from the Ukrainians in the East gives them respite and raises the cost of victory beyond Putin’s resources, especially if the sanctions are in place. Maintaining Ukraine’s supply lines allows their forces to continue fighting. Instead of time theoretically being on Russia’s side, we bleed Russia for however long it takes.
The Ukraine crisis is more evidence of incompetence. To deter Russian President Putin from an attack, continuing to expand the lethal aid deliveries started in the Trump administration is just common sense. Russia began to move forces to the Ukraine border last spring. Making Ukraine a much harder nut to crack could’ve raised the price of an assault to the unacceptable. Instead, we paused our lethal aid. Biden even O.K.’d the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to appease Germany and Russia.
The Trump era deliveries, especially the Javelin anti-tank missiles, allowed the Ukrainians to stabilize their eastern front. Adding anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles could’ve raised the price of invasion higher than the Russians could afford. The prospect of a long sustained war for an economy about the size of Italy while under sanctions might not seem palatable to an aggressor.
Recently, we’ve resumed deliveries, but with the invasion already begun, it is far more challenging to get them in the hands of the defenders. Still, the Ukrainians are valiantly holding out. Think how much better their position is if we had sent arms earlier. Maybe there wouldn’t even be an attack.
How could we have made such mistakes? One has only to look back at the Afghanistan fiasco. Could anything have gone worse? The same climate zealots who failed to acknowledge relinquishing energy independence had dire national security consequences are still calling the shots in Washington. The same people producing our greatest humiliation in decades are still in charge. Unbelievably, not one person in our national security establishment has lost their job. The better question is why we expected better.
I think this is evidence of a rot infecting our bureaucratic establishments. Look around. We spend more on healthcare than almost any other advanced nation. Yet, we will be suffering from our disastrous lockdowns far into the future. We relied on data from other countries, such as Israel, throughout the pandemic for accurate data. This is despite the billions given to these bureaucrats. Again most of the major players are still in place.
The current inflation gives us insight into our inability to use common sense and logic to solve problems. We know inflation results from too much money chasing too few goods. You can end inflation by severely restricting the money supply. The Federal Reserve stopped the inflationary spiral of the 1970-80s by tightening to the point where interest rates were higher than the rate of inflation. Rates went above 18% while inflation was t 14%. The result was a deep recession with unemployment above 10%.
Today it would take interest rates above the current 7 1/2% inflation rate. This move would mean mortgage rates about triple g from where they were at the beginning of the year. The resulting recession would probably end rapid inflation but at a horrible price. Anyone with variable rate loans or an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) would be in a dark place.
If we only slowly raise interest rates, it adds to costs and feeds rather than stopping inflation. Interest rates are a blunt and cruel instrument.
The other path is to increase supply. The most visible commodity affecting almost all our endeavors is energy. Today most of our energy comes from fossil fuels. Every time we fill up at the pump or open our heating bill, we are made painfully aware of inflation.
Expectations drive inflation. If we feel prices will be higher in the future, we buy now and buy more in anticipation. This perception adds to demand. Inflation’s upward march is most visible in the price of gasoline. If the price is still rising at the pump, we know prices are still going up. For this reason, it is essential to stop the upward march of oil and natural gas prices.
Detour on the Road 