The World has Lots “More” Now What?

From at least 10,000BCt to the 15th Century AD Humanity at it’s most advanced level was organized on a strictly top-down basis. Agriculture involving most people underpinned of these societies. Highly labor intensive, agriculture needed organization. When to plant, when to harvest and where and how to store the harvest called for certain retained knowledge. As we have pointed out in this series on “More”, a society can only get “More” in three ways, take it from somebody else, trade for it or innovate. Once the easy areas were planted only innovations such as irrigation and better tools, akin to the plow, axes and saws could bring more land under cultivation. Unfortunately, major innovations were few and far between. For instance, the wheel came into use at about 3,500BC, but as a potter’s wheel, not for transportation or carrying burdens. That came even later. The wheelbarrow dates only from 600 BC in Greece. That left it for trade and taking stuff from others as the preferred ways to get “More.”

Settled agrarian communities with seemingly abundant food and fiber, couldn’t help but attract those looking to relieve them of the fruits of their labor. The protective organization was a necessity. Military and policing needed leadership, organization and a means to pay for it. Accumulated knowledge had to be preserved and passed down. Who keeps the calendar? Who makes and enforces the laws.?

Trade, the other means of acquiring “More” also had its requirements. Exchanging goods need central protected markets and routes. It’s no wonder towns and cities combined administration, religion and markets in a protected area.

Laws, religion (often the same), administration and trade then all needed ways to preserve and tally. Fortunately, civilizations learned to write, read and compute. Sadly, for most of history, this was laborious, costly and limited. Even if you could read and write cuneiform, can you imagine War and Peace written on clay tablets? As a result, literacy was severely limited. As of late 1475 BC, literacy was 5% in France and 1% in Sweden. Out of necessity, a narrow group of literate elites filled the upper clergy, government administration, military and those in mercantile endeavors across all civilizations. Heredity in most cases played a major part in the makeup of these elites. The other more than 90% of the “civilized world” was an illiterate mass, mostly tied to the soil. Whether they were called peasants, serfs, slaves, coolies or some other name denoting those at the bottom, they, for the most part, led mean short lives, partaking in little or none of the “better things of life.”

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An Under Served Market

Can you think of anything anywhere there are 36 ready and willing buyers for everyone offered and no one is doing much to meet the demand? Something there’s at least a 2 to 7-year wait? We couldn’t either. In a capitalist country, supply would simply rise to meet the demand. Unless it’s a short-range disruption, generally it’s the government doing something wrong (think Cuba or Venezuelan) and/or not providing the proper legal framework to allow markets to do their job.

So it is with the shortage of babies for adoption. Right now, more than 2 million couples are waiting in line to for a baby. Families waiting to be completed. How many more are too discouraged by the incredible gauntlet of our adoption system to even try, have dropped out or are looking elsewhere is unknown? If you are among the few not having a family member or friend that has gone through the adoption misadventure, go online to read the endless stories of woe. We feel for a much lower number of transgenders wanting to get on with their lives, but we ignore the stress these millions are going through for just wanting to have a family.

Even if you can’t get worked up over what these couples are going through, you just might be over the possibility of our declining national population. Countries with declining populations such as Japan or Russia are locked in very slow growth with less young people supporting an ever-growing aged population. This will only get increasingly untenable in the future. So how do we maintain or increase our working-age population down the road? We can allow much greater numbers of immigrants. This, however, is a great bone of contention between our two major parties with no resolution anywhere on the horizon.

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He Cant Be Serious

President Trump again has put a wide swath of the establishment types in a state of fear for another of our “venerable” institutions.  What could he be thinking?  Steven Moore and  horrors Herman Cain considered for the Federal Reserve Board?  Why they don’t even have a PHD among them. Worse he is playing politics with appointment by selecting people generally agreeing with him on economic policy.  They see the  Fed as a revered independent agency led by highly educated elites delivering stable money and full employment from on high.  Contamination with these two louts will taint this wonderful institution with mediocrity possibly leading to failure. We have trouble in River City.

Before everyone hyperventilates, remember we’re talking about the Federal Reserve.  You know, the people not having a clue the “Great Recession” was on the horizon.  The ones by keeping interest rates so low it forced people in need of returns worldwide to buy riskier instruments such as the Collaterized Mortgage Obligations containing the subprime mortgages. That rocked the world economy.  Even when they woke up, their answer was to buy trillions of dollars worth of debt with newly created money driving interest rates near zero.  The result was the slowest recovery ever recorded after any recession or depression.  This even with  Obama’s near trillion-dollar stimulus.  At best the Fed has a hit or miss record since its inception.  We warned of the continuing destabilization of  the economy if interest rates continue below normal in our post Free Capital to Finance “More” in our series “The long Journey to More.”  The Fed never seems to be aware of the bubbles it creates till they burst.

Tightening or loosening the money supply at the wrong time may actually have happened more often than they got it right. As Milton Friedman put it, “No major institution in the US has so poor a record of performance over so long a period as the Federal Reserve, yet so high a public reputation.”  And this was said before  its “Great Recession” failures.  It would seem this is an organization in clear need of fresh ideas to achieve positive performance.

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Pills Shouldn’t be Bitter

High Drug prices have been the subject of endless news stories. Politicians are railing against greedy “Big Pharma.”  It is hardly surprising people ask , “what does Dave’s Plan do to control drug prices if anything?”  They note the subject isn’t specifically mentioned. That’s true , but only because medicine is an integral part of healthcare not something apart.  One of the basic tenets of”Dave’s Plan” is to make the vast majority of healthcare transactions for cash by individuals.  Today the incomprehensible 3rd party maze of  drug companies, pharmacy-benefit managers (PBMs), discounts, rebates and insurance companies have resulted in Americans in many cases are paying much more for patented and other drugs than they should.  Yet Americans also have the most access to the advanced and in many cases life saving drugs in the world which of course is the real meaning of medicine.  After all, leaches may be cheap but are hardly crest of the medical wave. So what is the best way to balance price and the best medicines.  Scott W. Atlas of the Hoover Institution writing in the Wall Street Journal asked “so how can policy makers bring drug prices down?  By empowering consumers not insurers  or other intermediaries.”  That is exactly what Dave’s Plan does by allowing transactions to be made at the first dollar for cash.

We know this works even today.  With deductibles getting ever higher, shopping around can mean real savings.  Use pricing apps such as GoodRX.com or RXSaver.  Shop online at Blink Health.com or HealthWarehouse.com. Rather than using your insurance, just asking what the drug price would be if you pay cash at the pharmacy might result in major savings. New rules allow pharmacists to quot e direct prices,but only if you ask. If cash does better in many cases now, imagine what the price pressure would be from virtually all Americans paying cash and looking for the best deal? Could Amazon, Walmart or new entrants ignore such a vast market? That would be the case under Dave’s Plan.

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Wrong Turns on Major Problems at Year end

The news  late in the year seems to be filled with actions which if not handled well could lead to decades of  loss and danger.  Our confusion as to goals and relationships in the middle east highlighted by the Khashoggi murder, a Federal judge declaring Obama Care unconstitutional bringing healthcare front and center and the Harvard discrimination case shining light  on  discrimination against Asians all need close attention.

The dilemma posed by the apparent murder of  the Saudi Journalist
Jamal Khashoggi for the United States was all too predictable.  After all, in our posts SSSHHH! A MIDDLE EAST POLICY ON THE QT  and SSSHHH! MORE MIDDLE EAST POLICY ON THE QT  we warned committing completely to either the Sunni or Shia blocks in the Middle East was not in our interest.  What was in our interest was letting the Moslem civil war continue to exhaustion.  Neither side shares our values. Both operate in a different world of times gone by.  As we have pointed out, we have important interests in the Middle East, the survival of Israel, prevention of minority genocide, our relationship with the modernizing Kurds and the free flow of oil.  The ascendancy of either side in the Moslem civil war would continue and probably worsen the threat those interests.  While our present arrangement with the Kurds in Syria isn’t quite what we recommended, it shows what could be accomplished by a Kurdish connection. For a small (2,00+troops) contingent, we control nearly  a 1/3 of Syria ,blocking an Iranian land bridge to the Israeli border. This earns us a seat at the table over the future of Syria and by extension the middle east.  Many people have gained a measure of safety. All this is imperiled by the Trump administration. First by tying itself much to close to the Saudi crown prince strongly associates us with his odious policies.  We can back the Saudis against Iran without  condoning the actions of a medieval monarchy.  Instead, Trump wants an immediate withdrawal of all our troops in Syria. This would be disastrous to our now favorable position. It would stab the Kurds in the back and by extension expose minorities such as Christians and Yazidis to genocide by a reconstituted ISIS or other radical Moslems and bring Iran’s Shia coalition right to Israel’s border.  By giving a great victory to Putin, it could well encourage him in other dangerous adventures. This is the direct opposite of what we have advocated. If the administration continues down this road, it will not end well.

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