In his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump claimed he would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. He won, but the first 24 hours came and went with Ukrainian civilians still targeted and killed—no action taken against Russia. In February, President Trump and Vice President Vance bullied Zelenskyy in the Oval Office to consider what he would offer for a ceasefire. Ukrainian civilians are still being targeted and killed, and no U.S. action against Russia.

In July, Trump temporarily halted arms shipments to Ukraine. Later in the month, he gave Putin 50 days to agree to a ceasefire, which he then shortened to 10-12 days. Ukrainian civilians continued to be targeted and killed, with no U.S. action taken against Russia.

In early August, the U.S. agreed to sell a billion dollars of weapons to Europeans to give to Ukraine. President Trump arranged to meet Putin in Alaska on August 15th to negotiate a ceasefire. Putin being seen as a great national leader rather than an international pariah, forestalling any severe sanctions, while the war continues, underlay his attendance.

As the two Presidents returned home, it was clear that Trump had failed to secure a ceasefire, whereas Putin had achieved all his objectives. Ukrainian civilians continued to be targeted and killed, with no U.S. action taken against Russia.

Somewhere, Trump got the idea that Putin was open to a NATO-like force on the ground and in the air that would keep Ukraine safe, even if it gave Russia vital defensive territory. European leaders descended on Washington on Monday to discuss the details of the peacekeeping force and to praise Trump.

Russia claims it went into Ukraine to prevent Western troops stationed on its borders, so it’s fanciful to believe it is suddenly OK now. Then all the attendees went home. Ukrainian civilians continued to be targeted and killed, with no U.S. action taken against Russia.

Now that a few days have elapsed, it’s clear Russia agreed to nothing, saying that Ukraine’s guarantors should include Russia and China, each with a veto. Any further meeting, either between Putin and Zelenskyy or one that also includes Trump, would require extensive prior groundwork. Ukrainian civilians continued to be targeted and killed, with no action taken against Russia.

We’re six months into the Trump presidency, and the war goes on, with Russia committing war crimes against civilians and holding thousands of Ukrainian children. Even Melania Trump wrote a letter to Putin urging the return of these thousands of stolen children. Yet her husband hasn’t taken any action against Russia, other than slapping a massive tariff on our supposed friend, India, for buying Russian oil, and a profitable arms sale to Europeans. Russia expanded its attacks to western Ukraine.

We have every right to ask, “What’s going on?” Hoping for a Nobel Peace Prize, Donald Trump has inserted himself in several conflicts with mixed results, but peace in Ukraine might clinch the award if it leads to a fair and long-lasting peace. However, no one thought Neville Chamberlain deserved the Prize for destroying a friendly country, even if it gained “peace” for a short time.

One has to look far and wide to find a winnable war so botched. It’s hard not to attribute Putin’s Ukraine aggression to the aging Biden’s displayed weakness. A horrible Afghan withdrawal, followed by a seeming acquiescence to a small invasion of Ukraine, when a stern lecture on how much pain we were prepared to administer to Russia if it invaded might have dissuaded Putin..

Ukraine’s surprising initial success in defense of its country, coupled with Russia’s military disarray, opened the door for a Ukrainian victory over an inept invader. A quick supply of Ukraine with advanced weapons able to reach Russian military targets wherever they were and training in their use could’ve routed a demoralized invader. I proposed such a plan to accomplish this goal shortly after the invasion.

What we witnessed was a slow deployment of advanced weapons, coupled with only shorter-range arms and restrictions on their use, that allowed the Russians to dig in and recover. Even when we eventually sent some of the weapons, it was never timely. The result was a doomed Ukrainian offensive without air cover. We later sent the F16 and provided training on its use. Russia’s main cities were out of bounds for the use of U.S. armaments, even though Russia targeted Ukrainian cities and civilians regularly. I asked at the time why we expected the Ukrainians to avoid shooting back.

With Trump claiming he would end the war right after taking office, I posted what I thought it would take, letting Putin know Russian cities would suffer as much or more than Ukrainians. If the Russian President doesn’t make peace, follow through on making Russian life as miserable as possible. I thought Trump would find Russia with the GDP of Italy caving with or without Putin in charge. Apparently, Trump believes he can wean Russia away from China. I’ve pointed out that this is highly unlikely.

Trump did the opposite. Instead of providing Ukraine with new and better arms, he paused the delivery of what Biden had promised. He and his V.P. humiliated the Ukrainian President in the Oval Office. How this was supposed to bring Putin to the peace table without a victor’s demands, I’ll never know. Sure enough, Putin showed up last week, demanding a key chunk of Ukraine he’s been unable to conquer, among other onerous demands. Why not? He was under zero pressure.

Trump said it was “stupid” of Biden to allow Ukraine to attack inside Russia without first consulting Trump. “I think it was a big mistake.” And in a December interview with Time Magazine, Trump torched the idea entirely. “I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that? We’re just escalating this war and making it worse,” he said.

Now the Wall Street Journal reports, “The Pentagon has for months been blocking Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russia, U.S. officials said, limiting Kyiv from employing a powerful weapon in its fight against Moscow’s invasion. ” While the Biden administration finally allowed some attacks on Russian territory with U.S. weapons, Trump in effect banned them.

Now, a week after the Alaska fiasco, Trump may have had an epiphany. He says that Ukraine would have to continue attacks on Russia to have any hope of winning the war. “It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country,” he wrote. “It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia.”

Possibly, Trump or someone in his entourage figured out what Karl Rove pointed out. There are only three possible Ukraine outcomes. Trump surrenders to Putin and destroys his presidency just as Biden did in Afghanistan. The war continues, with Trump appearing as a weak, ineffective, blustering fool. Or lastly, he gets tough with Putin and forces him into a durable peace. The first two are disastrous to his presidency. The last might lead to a Nobel Peace Prize or heaven. It would be best for everyone, except Putin.

Even if he does what he should’ve done upon returning to office, it took too long, allowing too much death, maiming, child kidnapping, and destruction. Still, better late than never, but that assumes he’s finally seen the light.

One way of finding out is for the Senate to pass the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025. With 85 co-sponsors, it shows overwhelming support for Ukraine; it’s a real character test for Senate Majority Leader John Thune to bring it to the floor. A Trump veto or active opposition will tell us all we need to know where the President’s loyalties truly reside.