O.K., who left the closet door open and let Peter Navarro, the White House trade advisor, out? All I know is I woke up Friday morning to find Tariff Man, A.K.A. President Donald Trump had threatened the European Union with a 50% tariff on June 1st if they didn’t bend to his will. Added to this blast was a 25% tariff on any iPhones built outside the U.S. Apple has been moving production to India.

So much for the assurances uttered by those behind Trump’s first-term tax success; as I’ve pointed out, Larry Kudlow, Steve Moore, and Art Laffer led us to believe massive tariffs were only a tactic to obtain fairer trade terms. On “Liberation Day,” we saw high tariffs, only to be partially rolled back, but here we go again. How often do we hear the cry of “wolf” without any canine attack before we stop listening about wolves and anything else we hear from the Crier?

We may have legitimate complaints against our trading partners, and they have their concerns. But why not negotiate in good faith rather than making enemies out of friends and potential friends? Our relationship with Europe is already shaky over the Ukraine conflict and NATO. Do we need a more estrangement?

As the most populous nation on earth, India, as an ally, could help offset China. India is a rapidly developing nation willing to produce things we’ve been getting from China. We should be happy that Apple builds phones there rather than in China. No, Trump demands Apple make expensive phones in the U.S. India has every reason to feel stiffed by the U.S. Do we want to punish an American Tech company while we’re claiming that’s what the EU is doing? Why take business from India?

Trump claims he has all the cards, and everyone must give in to his desires. This blog is devoted to public policy, ours, and other nations. Looking at things from the perspective of different countries, Trump’s contention isn’t necessarily so.

While the administration has consummated only one trade deal so far, the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement is viewed here as the UK’s only option.

If you hadn’t read this blog, you likely wouldn’t have known that the nation had joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership’s successor, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). You may hear for the first time that the UK has recently concluded trade agreements with India and the European Union.

Why is this important? It points out that other nations indeed have cards to play and are playing them. Rather than killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trump’s refusal to join the trade pact initially shepherded by the U.S. didn’t end it, just the opposite. It’s operating and growing beyond the present twelve.

Following the UK, Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous nation, has applied for membership. Given its recent pact with CPTPP member the UK, its rivalry with China, and the U.S.’s confusing actions, it would surprise no one if the world’s most populous nation, India, finds its way into the CPTPP.

As an existing and functioning trade organization, the CPTPP is much easier for nations to sign up for than negotiating individual deals from scratch. Already operating on four continents, many neighboring countries can see the value of becoming members.

Rather than being caught up in the U.S.-China trade war, it’s better to develop trade with something bigger than either. With the UK just sealing a trade deal with the EU and already a member of the CPTPP, can talks between the EU and the CPTPP be far off if they haven’t begun already?

Defense is one area of trade that could grow explosively within the CPTPP. The U.S.’s limiting use of the weapons it supplied to Ukraine and Israel has caused purchasers to rethink their reliance on the U.S. as a supplier. Add the general estrangement from the U.S., and many nations presently feel that purchasing defense needs elsewhere is attractive.

If you have to worry that your rifle is spying on you, China, with its constant surveillance, is hardly an alternative. With all the CPTPP members in the same boat, settling on measures allowing them to use their weapons without qualms is appealing, leading to a large market.

Along with investing in defense technologies comes general progress and innovation, something sorely absent in too many nations. The European Union has already considerably upped its defense budgets while questioning the purchase of American weapons. A worldwide market for their production helps lower costs.

The reverse of this impending change in arms sourcing is that the U.S. will supply less. It may come as a surprise to some that we make up 43% of the arms trade. Weapons and their systems are among our leading and, until now, growing exports. As others build and sell more, we stand to lose sales and jobs. It also means more competition in other tech areas.

In a relatively long business life, I’ve never known anyone bullying and dictating to customers, succeeding. People will go where they feel treated honestly and with respect.

The problem with narcissists like Trump is that they have a problem seeing anything other than their point of view. Everyone must deal with me as we’re their biggest market, and they can’t do without us. Others fail to see much point in dealing with someone who will make a deal one day and change his mind the next. They remember Trump’s first-term trade deals, which they signed, even if Trump doesn’t. Just ask Canada.

You might think other nations will play along with Trump with concessions and flattery, knowing he’ll be out four years hence, but either MAGA is still popular, in which case they’d be looking at a president J.D. Vance, or if not, a Democrat will be in charge. Expanded trade won’t be at the top of either agenda. Vance’s distaste for Europe and others is well known.  

Democrats have historically favored tariffs and are unenthusiastic about trade deals. The original members of the CPTPP will remember that even though Hillary Clinton negotiated the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Bernie Sanders made an issue of it when they vied for the Democratic presidential nomination, and she joined Trump in dumping it. Biden never made an effort to revive our participation.  

A quiet coalescing around a new widespread trade group based on the CPTPP will likely continue. Just look at the deals I’ve noted over the last year.

Trade has been a key way to improve the human condition for thousands of years. People find ways around self-serving trade barriers. Just remember, when the Ottoman Turks took control of the Silk Road trade routes, some relatively small backwater European states found ways around them and changed the world.

What we may get in the future is a thriving, wide-ranging trade group that excludes the world’s bad actors- the U.S. and China.