We’re at a point where it is impossible to comment on the present administration’s policies. Trump’s pledge to end both the Ukraine and Gaza wars quickly has dissolved into continued bloodshed, with only a few hostages returned and some prisoners exchanged. The administration apparently may move away from peace efforts. We must wait for information on what the administration is up to now.

There are three ways our tariff policy could go. First, Trump could come to his senses and reverse most of these taxes. The loss of trust in the U.S. will remain, but it mayn’t get worse.

On the other hand, if Trump truly wants us to produce everything within our borders, he has to raise the walls so high that nothing comes in from abroad. Of course, if nothing comes in, we take in no revenue—just higher prices and less choice.  

The third outcome may be an expanded version of Trump’s first-term approach: imposing tariffs and negotiating a patchwork of cut-outs and individual deals with countries, industries, and companies.

If I had to bet, I’d go with the last option. An endless procession of supplicants competing for favor is a narcissist’s dream. Of course, granting favors to those best appealing to his vanity would be a mercantilist economy on steroids—cronyism rules. Will this work better now than in the past?

While waiting for the fog to clear, it’s a good time to deal with the sudden spate of books and articles on Biden’s cognitive decline by people who were aware of it or should’ve been aware the former president wasn’t on top of his game.