You’re settling in to spend an evening watching an interesting-sounding movie, only to realize you’ve already seen it. That’s the feeling I got when Trump suddenly reversed course and paused some of his tariffs for 90 days. The reason the administration and, indeed, Trump himself provided is that all those seventy-five nations already ripping us off, except for China, were lining up to lift their tariffs and other actions and finally move to free trade while leaving China on the outside. It’ll take time to accept their surrender.

Prominent countries named as heading up the list of supplicants were Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Australia. These names rang a bell. Haven’t we sat down with these countries and others and worked out a lowering of tariffs and other trade restraints in the past? Then it came to me; we negotiated a trade treaty with these nations and seven others that accomplished these goals. It was called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Negotiated over several years by then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who claimed “the deal set the ‘gold standard in trade agreements.” Twelve countries’ representatives O.K.’d the Treaty in 2016. It only needed to be sent to the Senate for approval by the new president.  

What happened then needs to be recalled and appraised in light of what is happening today. Donald Trump campaigned against the treaty, claiming it would join the already-in-effect NAFTA treaty in destroying middle America. This stance reflected his anti-free trade stance going back to the 1980s. What is surprising is that Hillary Clinton turned on her handiwork.

While President Obama, like Bill Clinton with NAFTA, supported the treaties forged by their administrations, Democrats historically joined their union supporters in opposing free trade. NAFTA only passed because of Republican votes. Bernie Sanders could deny Hillary the nomination, so she bailed on her treaty.

Donald Trump’s love of tariffs returns to his time as a Democratic donor. While he has adopted basic Republican principles on low taxes, narrow regulations, and originalist Judges, he has never abandoned his belief in tariffs to protect domestic production. Rather than a free trader, he is just as much of a mercantilist as any French King. Believing in a zero-sum trading game rather than expanding trade expands the pie, benefitting more people; the last thing he wants is agreements liberalizing trade. If it benefits others, it must be at the U.S.’s expense.

Forced to retreat by a falling dollar and a hit to U.S. Government bonds, Trump is in the odd position of negotiating terms of trade individually with dozens of nations. By blinking, he conceded he doesn’t hold all the cards.

According to Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino, Japan is the likely source of the U.S. Treasury Bond sales that shook the administration. Probably one of the first nations up for negotiations with Trump, that nation subtly put him on notice it had some cards to play. Most of us know better than to diss your biggest creditor.

More importantly, what will they negotiate? Trump supporters Art Laffer and Steven Moore informed us on the pages of the Wall Street Journal that “in Charlevoix, Quebec, Mr. Trump made a remarkable free trade proposition to the world’s leaders: The U.S. would lower its tariffs to zero if their nations would do the same.” This outcome pleases us free traders, but that doesn’t reflect his current views.

Trade agreements generally lower or eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers, such as tax breaks and subsidies, to trade between the participants. Whether it was the European Union, the Trump-negotiated  

The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and other agreements all had this goal in mind. However, Trump is proposing much lower taxes on domestic producers. Will he eliminate Biden’s subsidies for chips and batteries produced in the U.S.?

You can see the confusion a country such as Japan has in bargaining with Trump. If the idea is to lower trade barriers between it and the U.S., how often does it have to say yes? Japan signed on to the TPP to do just that. When Trump torched that, it made a bilateral agreement with him to achieve the same ends. Now he is tearing that up. To what end?

Is it a case of the emperor demanding everyone do as I say, not as I do? I can discriminate against you, but you better not do the same to me. If that’s the case, it might explain Japan’s U.S. Bond sales. A reminder that Trump isn’t the only one with cards to play. Japan has already shown it’s willing to make agreements to broaden trade with the U.S., but it isn’t about to let itself be bludgeoned into a deal that hurts its people.

Trump owes it to the world to tell us what exactly his endgame is. If it’s moving everyone but China to a free trade group, as Laffer and Moore imply, then we’ve already seen this movie. The TPP was all about forming a free trade group, excluding China. If that’s the goal, the simple thing is to join the other treaty signers in this effective treaty.

It may surprise many, but others went ahead with what is now known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It has even expanded, with the United Kingdom joining last year. Suppose Trump aims to create a free trade group that leaves a predatory China on the outside. In that case, the rest of Europe and others should join you in this treaty group. Expanding could be relatively quick and painless with an already functioning group, avoiding an economic meltdown.

While this seems like a good idea, Trump has already rejected the treaty. Would he admit his mistake and now move in this direction? Any new deals Trump makes should be compared to what is available in the CPTPP. Unless they’re undeniably better, we wasted eight years isolating China, alienating friends, losing the world’s trust, and destroying the world’s trading system on one man’s warped vision.

The result might be that other nations perceive the United States as an untrustworthy abuser and leave the U.S. on the outside looking in. Like the possible Japanese bond sellers, other countries may play their cards to our disadvantage.