The recent call between Trump and Putin confirms the U.S. president’s pro-Putin stance, as outlined in my “What is Trump Thinking” post. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelinski agreed to a complete ceasefire. Russian President Putin agreed to a ceasefire only on energy sites and some U.S.-Russia hockey games. Zeroing in on only energy is a giveaway of where Putin is feeling the pain. Ukraine has developed its long-range capabilities, enabling it to hit oil and gas facilities in Russia. Diminished oil shipments reduce Russia’s ability to stay afloat.
Remember, for most of Biden’s term, Ukraine was forbidden from using U.S. weapons deep in Russia, while Putin was free to hit anything anywhere in Ukraine. I and others recommend letting Ukraine return fire anywhere in Russia launched attacks or war necessities produced. If Russia felt the pain, it would change its tune. Putin’s counter-proposal proves us correct.
Suppose Trump is serious about preserving Ukraine’s independence. In that case, he should’ve told Putin he either made real concessions or would supply Ukraine with everything it needs to put Russia in a world of pain. He didn’t, showing he favors Putin.
In the post, I pointed out Trump’s position was unworkable. Russia can’t break with China. Turning his back on Europe to cuddle up with Putin makes no sense.
Of course, his Ukraine policy isn’t the only incoherent scheme Trump is pushing. Building tariff walls around America so we can produce everything we need at home is just as pie-in-the-sky as Russia turning on China and allying with the U.S. The Trump administration has failed to answer two questions: How will we mine, process, and build everything we’ll need to make it all here, and who will do it all? I’ll leave the former until next week and zero in on the latter.
By forcing companies to provide America with “good-paying ” U.S. manufacturing jobs by building a tariff wall around the country, Trump seeks to return to the wonderful era of the 1950s and 1960s, when union members with only a high school diploma or less could live a solidly middle-class life.
Only one in three American workers belonged to a union then, while two-thirds suffered the effects of overpaid and protected unions through higher prices and shoddy goods. Auto workers were highly paid but produced poor autos. Excluding blacks was a feature of the construction trades.
For Donald Trump, nostalgia for an era that never existed for all is natural. Growing up in the lap of luxury, he was aware of his highly successful real estate developer father’s close relations with the construction trades to their mutual profit. He seems unaware others might not think this was an era worthy of repeating.
As an Arizona Resident, I have a close-up view of one of the most prominent examples of the build-it-here doctrine. The Biden and Trump administrations have lauded Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TMSC) for its vast Computer Chip fabricating plant in North Phoenix. In line for billions of taxpayer dollars under Biden’s Chips Act, Trump predicts the plant will employ thousands at high wages.
There is a predicted gap of tens of thousands between the need for chip workers and those available. What is enlightening is the educational makeup of those needed. About 39% will require a certificate or two-year degree, probably from a community college, and the rest a four-year engineering degree or higher.
Where are you going to find these people? Those at these levels have an unemployment rate considered full employment, around 2%. Chips aren’t the only manufacturing areas pushed to operate here that need an educated workforce. From smartphones to pharmaceuticals, those producing will need employees with the right skills.
Where are they going to come from? We need to significantly increase the pool of engineers and technicians, which will take time. It might even require an overhaul of our educational system. Until this happens, the only way to get the people you need is to steal from their present employers.
Offering a better financial deal than what they have is the only way to get you the needed personnel. Employed at successful growing companies, salary, stock options or purchase plans, and advancement are features of growth companies, especially in tech and services. Producers that are only profitable due to tariffs or subsidies will require even more government support.
The trillion-dollar question is whether we want to direct precious human resources away from those successful in a competitive world to man those existing only through government intervention.
That leaves bringing in an unlimited number of skilled migrants from abroad. For a nation of immigrants, this isn’t a bad idea. We need an increasing tax-paying population to fund our entitlement programs. However, the present administration appears less friendly to immigrants. Add the erratic party policies, and the U.S. may cause prospective migrants to hesitate to make such a life-changing move. Consider the canceled offshore windmills an engineer came here to work on.
What we have is a vast gulf between perception and reality. The political perception is that paying jobs will open up for those with a high school diploma or less in the Rust Belt, where the swing states in the presidential elections are located.
In today’s manufacturing, skilled people run automated production. The companies will locate where it makes the most sense. Arizona, with a long history of chip production, is a long way from the Midwest. Unions drove businesses away in the first place, so they will likely avoid them and locate them in right-to-work sites, such as Arizona.
Longing for a mythical era is a poor way to form policy. Whenever someone touts something as a “jobs program,” you know they have no concept of how we progress. At one time, agriculture employed most people. We produce much more food now with far fewer workers. Then, we used lots of people to manufacture our needs, and now we create more with fewer people. At each step, we live better than ever, with less onerous but more creative work.
Like the Lone Ranger, Trump wants to ” Return with us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear.”