Adam Smith argued, “There is a Great Deal of Ruin in a Nation,” acknowledging that our political leaders must do a lot of bungling to bring down a powerful and prosperous country. Given the administrations we’ve had since the turn of the century, I wonder if we are about to find out just how much ruin we can take before the fall.

Rather than following his father’s example, George W. Bush invaded and conquered Iraq. After crushing Iraq’s military in Kuwait, George H.W. Bush refused to invade that nation to get rid of Saddam Hussain. The elder Bush realized this would upset the balance of power in the Mideast. Getting rid of one bloodthirsty leader would only empower the murderous mullahs in Iran at a significant cost to us. The younger Bush went ahead anyway with dire results.

Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with 9/11, so why focus our efforts on him? Afghanistan harbored the organization carrying out the attacks, which needed our attention so it wouldn’t happen again.

On the domestic front, the younger Bush administration was asleep at the switch while the housing crisis brought us the “Great Recession.” Others warned that the combination of cheap money and sub-par lending is combustible, but the powers ignored the signs.

When Barack Obama succeeded George W. Bush, he responded to the latter’s failures by wrapping American business in ever-expanding regulations and avoiding problems abroad. Removing our troops from Iraq resulted in ISIS setting up a hideous Caliphate across Syria and Iraq. When Syria ignored Obama’s redline warning against using poison gas, he invited the Russians to calm things down. This inexplicable action gave Iran, through its ally Syria, the ability to threaten Israel and others.

Meanwhile, Obama’s anti-business policies resulted in a slow recovery from the recession, which made people unhappy and created the perception that we were a nation in decline.

This apprehension led to Donald Trump’s election. His persona led leaders abroad to hesitate to provoke him. At the same time, low oil prices deprived some adversaries, such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, of the means to be overly aggressive. His advisors curbed some of his worst instincts, such as abruptly pulling our troops out of Afghanistan and Syria. For Instance, he negotiated a pullout plan without the Afgan government or our NATO allies, which he never put into action.

He implemented long-held Republican goals of lower taxes and less regulation, resulting in a strong economy. However, Trump added high tariffs on some items, which trimmed growth. His erratic response to COVID-19 confused the public. A vaccine in record time was a plus, but waffling on lockdowns failed to show knowledgeable leadership. With Trump, you never knew what you’d get.

Tired of Trump’s arbitrary leadership during the pandemic, voters desired more stability to give Joe Biden a narrow victory. Rather than a steady hand, we got someone thinking he was FDR’s second coming. Biden spent so much it caused the highest inflation in forty years. Acting on Trump’s dormant Afgan withdrawal agreement, he presided over a disaster. Our adversaries abroad took notice. Russia invaded Ukraine, and Hamas carried out a horrific attack on Israel. By refusing to take meaningful action, he allowed an invasion of illegal aliens.

Fed up, the nation returned to Trump, hoping to regain the pre-COVID good times. So far, Trump has moved towards alienating our closest friends while cozying up to Russia. The impending trade war threatens not only our economy but the whole world. Trump claims all these nations are ripping us off. If they were, it stands to reason their people would be doing better than us, but we have any major nation’s highest GDP per capita. If they’re stealing us blind, how do we have so much more?

Worse, Trump’s actions destroy the trust built over decades between the U.S. and its former close friends. He is levying massive tariffs on Canada and Mexico in contravention of the North American trade treaty he negotiated in his first term. Now, the integrated supply lines developed under the pact are in disarray. Even when Trump signs his name, it means nothing.

Even worse, he cut off invaluable intelligence to Ukraine just as the battle in Kursk was raging. Russia seemed to gain an advantage at the height of the fight. Along with making no demands on Russia for peace talks while giving up NATO Ukrainian membership forever and ceding all the Ukrainian territory Russia now holds, one can’t help but wonder if the U.S. didn’t aid Putin. The Trump administration has to know that the timing looked terrible, even if it was just a coincidence. Was it a plan or just a foolish mistake? Why would anybody trust us in the future?

While Trump talked of tariffs and ending the Ukraine war in 24 hours during the campaign, people remembered Trump mitigating his first-term tariffs for our friends after it became apparent they were doing more harm than good. He delivered javelins to Ukraine and stopped Nord Stream 2, indicating he could deal Putin some pain. No one signed on for a worldwide trade war and a complete Russian victory. He didn’t tell us about these extreme actions and hasn’t adequately explained them now.

Biden promised stability. Instead, we got a radical progressive with fever dreams of FDR-like acclaim. Trump campaigned on an expanding economy where people could afford their dreams. In just over a month, we have a rapidly falling stock market and, in the face of uncertainty, a slowing economy. With our help, Russia is gaining an unearned victory in Europe. Amazingly, Trump’s MAGA followers trumpet that he deserves a Nobel Prize and a place on Mt. Rushmore.

The truth is that after two mediocre presidents, the last two challenge James Buchanan for the title of our worst president ever. How much lousy governance can we absorb before permanent ruin takes hold? How long will it take for us to reestablish faith in America among our former friends? Can anybody trust Trump? He’s our leader for the next four years.

In a nation with boundless talent, we have put in place a system that only seems able to provide subpar leaders. I warned you this could happen in my New Party series. We know more choices can lead to better outcomes, but it’s getting late—maybe too late. Ruin may be at our doorstep.