Another off-year election and another Republican loss are on the books. This New York congressional defeat illustrates the ongoing weaknesses of the party. Compromised from the start, the race to replace a fraud kicked out of the House of Representatives needed solid handling to offset the stench of the poorly vetted former Republican member. A known, solidly-funded candidate with a well-organized campaign was necessary.
What happened in the New York election reflected the continuing inability of Republicans to match Democratic fundraising and organization. Instead of finding a known squeaky-clean candidate, the Republicans selected a little-known candidate who appeared to be a registered Democrat. Heavily outspent, Republicans received much fewer early and mail-in votes. This situation left the campaign needing election day votes. Of course, the weather was terrible on that day. The result was that the seat turned Democrat, leaving the party with an even slimmer majority in the House.
I’m tired of pointing out that parties exist primarily to win elections. After three miserable general elections, some changes might be in order. Why do Republicans underperform? It isn’t that a charismatic leader leads the Democrats. Joe Biden is the least popular incumbent in polling history. Yet, Democrats can widen their appeal to gain majorities.
Suburban women used to vote for Republicans but now provide winning margins for the Democrats. By running engaging pro-choice candidates, Democrats broaden their appeal. They understand the idea is to gain more votes.
Conversely, Republicans seem to go out of their way to repel voters. Instead of putting forth candidates who can who generally support their agenda, Republicans increasingly put loyalty to Donald Trump above electability.
My home state of Arizona provides a disturbing example. Trump favorite Kari Lake narrowly won the gubernatorial nomination two years ago only to lose in the general election. Now, she wants to run for the Senate. Instead of offering an olive branch to her party’s more moderate McCain branch, Lake disrupts by forcing out the party chairman. When she should be widening her appeal, she sows distrust by secretly taping private conversations. Because she’s Trump’s favorite, she will be the nominee. Where the Republicans could’ve picked up a much-needed seat, it now looks like a loss.
In recent elections, Democrats’ funding candidates and causes outpace the Republicans. In contrast, Trump has done an admirable job gaining small donations, but the party needs to catch up. Many big donors show their dislike of the former president by continuing to fund Nikki Haley’s campaign even though she still trails.
Even Trump’s small donation prowess is mitigated by so much being used for Trump’s legal defenses rather than winning elections. At least $50 million so far diverted in that direction.
While many Red states, such as Florida and Georgia, have shown they can run well-organized and funded winning campaigns, the Republican National Committee (RNC) is a three-time loser. Chosen by Trump in 2016, Rona McDaniel led the committee to this dismal record. Replacing her and others on the RNC with someone with a winning record is a no-brainer.
Rather than looking for the best, Trump proposes appointing his campaign manager and daughter-in-law as cochairmen of the RNC. How does this plan enhance Republican prospects? Both claim Trump won in 2020, while most of the country knows he lost. With such far-out positions, it is hard to see any attraction for swing voters needed to win.
With total control of the RNC, Trump can siphon off the funds he needs for his legal woes. Republicans lack funds as is, and this only makes things worse. It’s hard to imagine Lara Trump approaching the Big Donors that back Nikki Haley for contributions to the party.
With a party starved for funds, a sustained program that gets out of the vote may not be possible. Mail-in and early voting are now features of modern elections, and Republicans aren’t as good as Democrats getting those ballots. It doesn’t help that Trump, in the past, has come out strongly for in-person voting on election day to prevent “fraud.”
Winning politics means addition, not subtraction, and I need to see an effort from the Trump camp to enlarge the party tent. So far, we’re getting the opposite. Nikki Haley has proven her appeal to swing voters the Republicans will need in the General election, so it stands to reason even a Trump-controlled party should want to keep her and her supporters in the fold.
Instead, the former president read her donors out of the party. Putting Haley down for her husband not being present while he’s on military deployment is an insult not only to her but to everyone serving in uniform. It recalls the gratuitous “McCain isn’t a hero” comment that continues to cost Republicans in Arizona and other places. Why does a man put people down for their service when he avoided defending the country because “bone spurs” beat me?
Trump lost something by 2020. In my series on COVID-19, you can find my questioning of his confusing actions that lost him credibility. The lockdowns costing trillions showed little leadership. That Fauci was still there throughout says it all.
As mentioned, his vote in-person rant and poor debate performances probably cost him. Whether you think he did something criminal or not on 1/6, watching him do nothing to end the chaos was excruciating.
In the recent New York Election, the seasoned Democratic candidate (he occupied the seat previously) turned immigration disarray, the Republican’s best issue, against his opponent by favoring the border compromise bill that Trump caused to fail. He came across as a moderate, at least wanting to do something while the Republicans were for doing nothing now. Demanding the border issue stay unaddressed for his reelection campaign, Trump contributed to the loss and will continue to add future pain.
The other parts of the Bill would’ve funded aid to Ukraine and Israel. Without timely support, the Ukrainians are running out of munitions and have already abandoned a key city. The momentum has shifted to Russia. How is this in our interest?
Along with holding up needed aid, Trump says he’d invite Putin to attack any NATO nation not fully funding its commitment. He appears unaware all NATO members bordering Russia have exceeded the 2% goal. In light of the Navalny murder in Putin’s prison, this just seems out of touch with reality.
Added to these questionable actions is his plan to raise taxes via a 10% tariff on all imports; he seems to be going out of his way to turn off the voters in the middle the Republicans desperately need.
You don’t feel he has a plan for Republicans to win the presidency, Congress, and other down-ballot offices. “I’m not Biden” isn’t a platform. It’ll be even worse when he finds himself against someone other than Biden.
While we can all see Biden is unfit to continue, we overlook Trump’s slippage at our peril.