Watching Florida Representative Mile Walsh explain why he was enthusiastically backing former President Trump, I was struck by the incoherence of his answer. While he conceded Ron DeSantis was a fine governor of his state, he indicated our problems were so severe that we needed someone to “hit the ground running.” We face many serious issues requiring solutions, but why would Trump be your choice? 

The first thing any candidate needs to do to effect change is get elected. How likely is Trump to return to the White House? Let’s look at possible scenarios. Even though most voters don’t want it, the nation expects the election to be a rerun of ’20 with Biden and Trump.

The latest polls show a statistical dead heat. everything is within the margin of error. Trump may have a slight edge. Even against the most unpopular president anyone can remember, Trump gains no distance. The public has about the same distaste for both.

For a moment, let’s assume Trump ekes out a ’16-type victory. Democrats are more successful in the latest gerrymandering, have a better ground game, and we have some poor Republican candidates, such as Kerry Lake, in Arizona; the Democrats will likely retain at least one house of Congress. Add the fact Trump is a lame duck on day one, and it’s hard to see him accomplishing much of anything, and this is the best Trump outcome. 

Trump’s legal problems may still hurt him, the economy improves, or both, and Biden wins. Given how close the polls this is entirely possible. Instead of making positive changes, we continue to march down the progressive road.

Maybe I was right all along, and the plan was never to rerun Joe but to bring in a new team when Trump’s nomination is assured. A ticket of Michelle Obama paired with either Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro or Kentucky’s Brashear without the Biden baggage promising a fresh look at everything may crush Trump and take both houses. The Democrats listened to a nation that did not want a Biden-Trump rematch. The Republicans thumbed their noses.

Even if this wasn’t the plan, Democrats understand it’s all about winning, and they have a much better chance by dumping old Joe. If a group of Party luminaries descended on the White House to inform the president he was too old, it would leave him no other option but to bow out as gracefully as possible and open the convention. Biden knows he cannot win if even your party stars say you’re too old.

Reversing the rot is unlikely even under the best foreseeable outcome, and the other possibilities point in the other direction. The polls show a different path. Nikki Haley handily dispatches Biden. Her lead in these surveys gives the Republicans a decent chance to control Congress. No lame duck; she could have eight years to accomplish her goals.

On a personal level, over the Holidays, our college-educated children and spouses, to my surprise, talked favorably about Nikki Haley. Never Trumpers, they are ready for Haley. Losing the college-educated has contributed mightily to three straight election losses. Now, we can win them over.

Parties exist solely to win elections, so why go for an inside straight when you could have a full house? Why are so many Republican officeholders and right-of-center media in the Trump camp? My theory is the tyranny of minorities in today’s world.

Trump’s MAGA supporters comprise only a minority of the electorate, but a primary fight could cause any candidate for any office problems. Even if you win, you’ve expended resources and caused bruised feelings. Self-interest says avoid this and declare for Trump.

Media is now all about fitting into a particular niche. Subscribers to the New York Times or the Washington Post are mainly progressive—the same as viewers of CNN and MSNBC. These audiences, not the general public, pay the bills. Any deviations from the left-winge line can result in lost subscribers and viewers and lower profits.

The same is valid on the right. Newsmax makes no bones its business model is being 100% behind Trump. While its ratings are small, it can only grow from the defections of Trump stalwarts from the much bigger Fox News. This situation boxes Fox in. They could lose viewers if seen as too critical of Trump or supporting challengers. It is better to have plenty of favorable Trump programming and supporters.

Recently, Fox spotlighted this circumstance by scheduling a Trump Townhall at the same time as the DeSantis-Haley debate. This counterprogramming raised Fox’s ratings while hurting Trump’s challengers.

Self-interest rather than the greater good takes precedence; who would’ve thought? This fact could explain DeSantis’ excellent reception on NewsMax and Fox until he was about to run. Even before he declared, many commentators parroted Trump’s DeSantis criticism. Politicians who previously sought DeSantis’s help suddenly claimed: “It wasn’t his time to run.”

Combined with legacy media fearing an electable candidate, giving him a lousy press, the highly successful governor had few friends. Nikki Haley was under the radar while the Florida Governor took in-coming from all sides. Now it’s her turn in the barrel. Leftwing media joins with rightwing to trash a likely winner. Other than her surrogates, count the recent favorable mentions on Fox. You won’t need extra fingers.

Contrast this response with the robust criticism of Biden combined with calls for a sitting president to step down in the left’s media. The most progressive president since F.D.R. is under daily fire. Maybe Biden doesn’t have Trump’s cult-like followers, but he is an incumbent who delivered. What matters to the left is winning and retaining power.

Republicans and their media allies seem hell-bent on increasing the odds of a fourth straight loss. What kind of people cheer for this kind of team? Losers.