Catching up

Trump’s Health Plan-Nothing really new here.  There’s no way this plan would have a positive effect on health care costs other than being able to buy policies across state lines. This of course has been part of virtually every alternative plan including our “Dave’s Plan”,but by itself it can’t hope to make a meaningful reduction of costs. Remember our plan (for new readers find under Policy the series describing the plan) aims to actually bend the cost curve down by on one side making people spend for healthcare out of their own savings (Personal Benefits Accounts PBAs) while relieving providers of the bulk of paperwork and credit risks associated with healthcare. These kind of market pressures have resulted in lower costs in other fields and we have no reason to believe it won’t have the same effect in healthcare.On the other hand, by covering preexisting conditions, tax breaks and further expansion of medicare, the Trump Plan could indeed cost even more than Obamacare. Dave’s plan initially could also add to cost but only because it covers everybody, but it does it with exactly the same cost per person as Obamacare. Future costs will be reduced by it’s powerful market features. Add complete portability and leveling the playing field between small and large businesses and we really have a plan that empowers individuals in their own healthcare. Against this, Trump’s Plan seems to be a grab bag of previously advanced ideas without serious intent. It’s probably a good thing that the plan’s ideas are so old that the statute of limitations probably prevents him from  being sued.

Trump winning-People have said we were wrong in our prediction that Trump had topped out.(Hitting the Ceiling 3/3/16 Commentary) We concede nothing. Trump has been winning more delegates in a divided field, but he has done it with virtually the same 30-40%. He is now faced with having to acquire the needed 1237 delegates before the convention or be faced with some ugly alternatives and unless he can expand his base it’s unlikely he gets there. With his increasing opposition from women,  foreign policy flubs and total incoherence on abortion expanding his base is increasingly a mirage. If he is unable to win on the first ballot, he’s done.  Trump has no chance on future ballots. The delegates just aren’t his people. Trump needs to win Wisconsin and then get over 50% in New York to be a winner taking all to have a clear path to 1237. Stumble on either and the path looks like a contested convention. Losing both would be a Trump’s worst nightmare. On the eve of the Wisconsin Primary it doesn’t look promising for Trump. Polls show him with a wide over 50% lead in New York  but this could be a double edged sword. a slippage especially under 50% and all the news will be how he is slipping which could further his downward momentum. At some point he’ll have to confront the possibility of a convention 1st ballot loss. If he can’t reach 1237 before Cleveland on his own he’ll have to use his supposed negotiating skills to make a deal or deals to get there. The problem is with who?

Only Cruz, Kasich and Rubio have enough delegates to help him. Maybe the Kennedy move of offering  the 2nd spot would work but not with Cruz. Unless you forgot, according to Trump Cruz is a Canadian and ineligible for the spot. That leaves Kasich and Rubio who seem to find Trump distasteful to say the least. In any case there is a catch 22, joining a candidate who is fading and unable to get the delegates himself doesn’t look like a winning  proposition. Losing while forever being tied to Trump just isn’t an attractive future. If Trump needs me, he’s a loser and both would likely avoid any further association with him.

This leaves Trump in a very bad place. Without 1237, he’s a sure loser in Cleveland. He can go home and run third party but that would be very expensive with no hope of victory. Further that would leave him with a reputation of a crybaby loser who would still be the worlds best know Misogynist. With women making up over half of his potential customers his political and business future would be in the worst of all possible worlds.

If all this comes to pass, what can Trump do? Recast himself as a statesman. Propose a candidate not now running that the whole party including Trump could enthusiastically support. After pounding on virtually everyone his finding someone to endorse would be difficult at best, but we of course have a suggestion, Mitch Daniels. For many the question would be “who’s that?”.  Mitch is presently the president of Purdue University. Oh no an Ivory tower academic some might cry, but but before his present position he was a very successful conservative Governor of Indiana. Before that, he ran the Office of Management and budget under George W. Bush. In fact Daniels was Assistant to the President for Political and Intergovernmental Affairs under President Ronald Reagan.  Along the way he was President of a think tank and spent positive time in private industry. O.K. he sounds great, why didn’t he ever run before?  Approaching 2012 he in fact was the favorite of a great many conservatives for the nomination. Unfortunately, just as he was gearing up he realized a prior unique family problem could cause his family anguish and backed away. Actually in today’s world this worry could actually make him a very sympathetic candidate especially with women. Putting forth Daniels would make Trump look thoughtful and a bigger man, avoiding great humiliation while doing what would unite the party and becoming a leader in very possible success. It probably would save his greatest asset, his Name.

Failing Trump exercising this brilliant unexpected move, Mitch Daniels would still be a great choice to unite the party. We’re sure he and his family would see their duty and once nominated give the party a great winning effort just as he did in winning big in Indiana. As President we would have a person that could actually do the job. Remember the whole point of these primaries and convention is for the party to put forth a winning ticket that can advance it’s agenda..

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