The Road to a Better Middle East Future Runs Through Erbil

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized

What do we do now? What we should’ve done years ago. Establish our Middle East Bastion in Kurdistan. Train and arm the Kurds to protect themselves and us. The Shia dominated Iraqi Government has passed a non-binding resolution for Americans to leave their country. Given how our last Iraq withdrawal turned out, this can’t even be considered. However, it gives us another chance to exert control in a strategic part of the world. As we pointed out in our 2014 & 2015 “Shhhhhhh” Middle East posts, turmoil in the Moslem World has brought problems to the fore we can’t ignore. Radical Muslims are attacking everyone disagreeing with their dogmas worldwide. There are threats to the world’s oil supply. Mass migrations of the displaced and the possible destruction of Israel. The extermination of minorities demands our interest, whether we want to engage or not. Even Trump had to realize his withdrawal from the Kurdish areas along the Turkey-Syria border was boneheaded. In the end, he had to keep troops in Syria after all. We can reverse this significant mistake by making a move to Kurdistan. The Shia dominated Government in Baghdad would hardly risk the breakup of their country. In any case, they probably would prefer we stay close by as an offset to Iran and to prevent a re-emergence of ISIS. 

We realize this is a very unpopular idea in some quarters. Across the political spectrum from Rand Paul to Bernie Sanders, the proposition of involvement in areas “far from home” violates American principles. They say we should stay at home and mind our own business just as the founding fathers handled things. Of course, this was never historically true. In just the 1st quarter-century, after the ratification of our Constitution, we were involved in hostilities beyond our borders. Mostly they were over commerce and free seas. We even established a Mediterranean Naval Squadron and, for most of our history, maintained it. We were also involved in regime change in a foreign country. As we established in our series on “More,” trade is one of the three ways you can get it. The idea we can retreat into a shell and let some else handle the world’s problems is fanciful. Do we really think Iran, Russia, and China have our interests at heart? 

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2020 Vision

Dave Davis Uncategorized

Another year in the books. Last year at this time, we took notice of President Trump’s desire to leave Syria. We pointed out this would stab our Kurdish Allies in the back, while leaving us much worse off. This year Trump pulled our small force out of the Turkish-Syrian border area and sure enough we are worse off. Forced to realize his error, he then kept some troops “to guard the “Syrian Oilfields” and of course more troops in Iraq. The result is distrust of the US by our allies in Syria, Kurds, Canadians, British and French. Americans are under fire in Iraq and and there is a impending humanitarian crisis if the last NW Syrian stronghold falls to Assad’s forces. China, Russia, and Iran hold joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman. We suggested it would be better to quietly base in Kurdish Iraq, arming and training the Kurds. They are a people faced by enemies on all sides. With our and tacitly Israeli support, the reverse would be true, the Kurds threaten everyone else. As their benefactor, we would hold a very strong negotiating position to our benefit. Instead our small forces in the area are attacked by Iran backed militias. We are faced with responding and escalation or run. Our real friends rightly question us. After all, the only ones Trump refers to as friends are Erdogan, Putin, Kim and Xi. If these are your friends, who are your enemies? Trump continues to flounder. People pointlessly die.

We also saw some hope we would see expanded incentives to increase savings. While some progress has been made, there is still isn’t proper recognition of savings relationship to healthcare and overall well being. Given greater limits for 2020, Health savings Accounts (HSA) will continue to be the fastest growing health choice. This should make us aware normal market based solutions will be preferred if just given a chance. Dave’s Plan (Series available on this site) would implement these principles universally. We stand ready for a Congressional Budget Office side by side comparison with any of the other plans. Let everyone see how “Medicare for All” or Obamacare actually stack up. Just the elimination of most third party payments and credit risks will lower prices. Marketing directly to individuals will bring forth a much more efficient and responsive system. In any case the possibility of Obamacare being dumped or severely curtailed by the courts in 2020 should focus everyone on real solutions to our personal finance problems, highlighted by healthcare. Can all these people running for office including Trump really go into the 2020 campaign with no clue what to do to provide reasonable effective healthcare?

So it goes, nothing actually gets solved. The debt grows, dreamers live in fear of what comes next, problems face us in every corner of the World, and the list goes on. We confront these problems with fewer friends and because of the rampaging growth of entitlements less fiscal flexibility. With 2020 a big Election year one would think we would be inundated with fresh ideas on how to move forward. Instead, we’re getting recycled Mercantilism and Socialism. The progress of our country has paralleled the ever widening openness to ideas and those that have them. Our Capitalist Republic is built on the basis of having the widest choice of ideas, products,services, leaders, or whatever. Instead, all we hear is calls from our two controlling parties for narrowing of our choices. Whether it’s Trump’s mercantilism, Berniie’s Socialism, Elisabeth’s Fascism or every politician spending other peoples money, we seem to have fallen back on failed ideas. Maybe our bet for the Democratic nomination, Michele Obama , will actually come up with something workable, but I wouldn’t hold your breath. After all, it was her husband who told a business owner ,”you didn’t build that.” As we have pointed out in our series on “More” ( series available on this site) we get “More” by taking from someone else, trade for it or create it through innovation. We now have a resurgence of the former over the latter two to the detriment to civilization. Our hope for 2020 is a recognition of what works and what doesn’t and we move in the right direction.

Fare Share and Other Signs of Envy

Dave Davis Commentary, Dave's Healthcare Plan, Policy, Uncategorized

Even a well-publicized crisis that turns out to be more hype than fact can serve a noble purpose. This is the way it should be with the well-publicized widening gap between the rich and the rest of the populace. Wealth inequality is said to threaten the ties that bind our society together. Based mostly on the work of economists, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman, the expanding gap is menacing not only the United States but all of the rich world. The latest addition to this argument is presented in the new book by Saez and Zucman, “The Triumph of Injustice.” These two advisors to Elisabeth Warren’s Presidential campaign, are revered across the progressive world. The widening disparity between rich and poor is taken as gospel, bringing forth demands the rich “pay there fair share.” Unfortunately, much as it was with Piketty’s 2013 book “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” this book is riddled with false assumptions and poor methodology leading to erroneous conclusions. Don’t take our word for it; recent articles in the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, and by the Cato Institute, among others, do an excellent job of dismantling this thesis brick by brick. Just leaving out the effect of transfer payments and taxation was bound to have it go off the rails. Apparently, you can find academics to back up any point of view no matter how far out, if you look hard enough. Logic and experience needn’t get in the way of currying political favor. How else can you explain Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro?

Yet, increasing the general individual wealth is a worthy goal. It’s just taking it from the successful and giving it to others after the government takes a healthy processing fee that’s self-defeating. That idea relies on a deadly sin, envy. We’re better than that. In any case, this never works. Any community is far more vibrant top to bottom with more wealthy entrepreneurs. Any community adopting policies and taxes that force them to leave can only be more impoverished. Remember our rule, “if people are clamoring to get in, you’re doing something right, and if they’re rushing to get out, you’re doing something wrong.” Instead of beggaring your more affluent neighbor, it would be better to consider ways to make you wealthier. Does the government assist you in finding better economic conditions, or does it in fact work against you?

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DO WE REALLY WANT TO SOLVE PROBLEMS?

Dave Davis Dave's Healthcare Plan, Policy, The Future Party, Uncategorized

Now that Deval Patrick and possibly Michael Bloomberg are entering the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Why not? None of the multitudes already running has wowed the populace. The nominal leader, Joe Biden, is suffering from a wound named Hunter. As we’ve pointed out, you simply can’t go for impeachment with a leader so ethically compromised. As the Dems push impeachment, the Republicans can point to the Bidens. Saying they did nothing wrong, just insults the electorate. Joe Biden’s only real source of strength is the Black vote. This arises out of his association with Barrack Obama. Patrick has a much older friendship with the former President, and he’s black. This can’t help but diminish Biden’s black support. This will further fragment the delegate totals for those running, probably leading to a hung convention. After two ballots, the nomination we think will go to Michelle Obama by acclamation. For years we’ve predicted Michelle would be the nominee, and Patrick’s entry in the field is just another Obama cool move. In any case, the Dems are committed to promising endless spending and crushing taxes. Michelle only has to appear to be a little less extreme.

Forcing both parties to the extremes is a given with our present primary system. As we’ve pointed out in our series “the Future Party” (series available on this site), our failing nominating system gives us less acceptable candidates. Instead of the parties offering capable candidates with broad appeal, we have populist Trump facing candidates at the other extreme. The lack of fiscal restraint is indicative of the lack of sound thinking. The present President is running trillion-plus deficits, yet any of the Democratic contenders make him look like a miser.

At the forefront of the Dems proposed eye-popping spending is healthcare. Cost estimates in the tens of trillions are offered to replace our present system or slightly less to significantly expand it. Nowhere is there any reasonable elements in any of the plans to actually cut the real costs of healthcare. Rationing, along with price controls and caps, we are told will bring prices down. They claim eliminating the profit motive will make healthcare much cheaper. One doesn’t have to recall the failure of the USSR’s command society to know this is the path to long waits and shortages. We just have to look at the current crisis in Britain’s single-payer health service. Presently, almost a quarter of a million have been waiting 6 months or more for needed treatment. Remember, Britain has only 1/6th of the Us population. Worse, 25% of cancer patients failed to start treatment on time even though timely treatment is often the difference between life and death. Do we really want needless deaths on the national conscience? We want better for our loved ones.

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Cold War II

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, The Long Journey to "More", Uncategorized

We were asked if we’re slipping into a new cold war. Our answer is you haven’t been paying attention, it’s already started. It probably started even longer ago, but when Xi was named President for life, it was inevitable. Anytime you have a president for life or anything close to it, the situation already is off the rails. You just don’t get liberalization with the rule of law when you can’t change the people at the top. What you get increasing repression. As we’ve pointed out in our “More” series, top-down one-party states are inherently inefficient as the elite substitute their judgment for that of free markets and the choices of free people. As they fall further behind, the people become restive, and the rulers have to make a choice between ceding power or crushing dissent. Too often, the latter wins out. So it appears with China. 

Given the actual state of things, what should we be doing? Decouple as soon and as thoroughly as we can without upending our and the world’s economy. That was the beauty of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). While increasing free trade among the members and protecting intellectual property rights, it makes it more expensive to make or buy in China. Unless China changed its ways, it would become increasingly isolated. This would’ve given everyone time to adjust without sudden dislocation. Unfortunately, the Trump administration dumped TPP and instead levied stiff tariffs. This is causing pain on both sides without isolating China. Evidently, the Trump administration thinks we can continue to have linked economies with just some adjustments. That wouldn’t have worked with the old Soviet Union, and it won’t work with China.

You only have to look at two of the recent happenings to two of our prominent business institutions, the NBA and Disney. Each fearing a loss of Chinese profits has bent their American Principles into a pretzel. Given our ideals, is there any reason not to know where Americans should come down on freedom. Houston Rockets general manager knew Daryl Morey and twitted his support for the people of Hong Kong. China had an immediate meltdown and used full force to bend the NBA to its will. Disney under similar pressure made changes to content to please China. In both cases, these entities initially chose profits over integrity. In doing so, they have lost any moral authority to speak out on anything at home or abroad. Unless you’re willing to pay the price of speaking up against injustice everywhere, you can’t really speak out anywhere. Nobody needs to listen to hypocrites.

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