Trapped by Your Narrative

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said he would do “whatever it takes” to combat the spread of coronavirus within the country — including locking down the U.S. if deemed necessary. “I would shut it down; I would listen to the scientists,” Biden told ABC’s, David Muir. This puts Biden firmly in the extreme lockdown camp. It goes without saying, he must believe the first lockdown worked or why else do it again. While the country struggles to open up and get people back to work and our youth in schools, the Democrats are seen as dragging their feet. The Democrats have settled on a Narrative. The lockdown came too late, but it was still worth it. If we open up too soon, infections will rise. Until we control the virus, we can’t worry about the economy because it can’t recover until then. Trump puts dollars before people. This Narrative is echoed nearly verbatim throughout the Left and their media allies. This is the Left’s Great Narrative Machine. So far, it seems to have solidly contributed to Biden’s poll lead.

The problem with a narrative is that it’s a story or account of events, experiences, or the like, whether actual or fictitious. It may tell a story, but the information may not be valid. If you present the Narrative as non-fiction and it doesn’t ring true, you’re in real trouble. Just look at the Left’s portrayal of mostly peaceful demonstrations for “Racial Justice.” When it came up against widely viewed scenes of looted shops, burned buildings, injuries, and dead bodies, the story was exposed as fiction. Biden’s ignoring the situation for months before he woke up resulted in quickly narrowing polls.

The Left’s narrative machine may be making another major mistake with their Covid-19 story. The Narrative supposedly is grounded in science.. “The Experts” support their shutdown agenda. The problem is that experts don’t always agree. We already know the pain of double-digit unemployment, businesses going out of business forever, and utter disruption of our lives. The cost of delayed medical attention, depression leading to more significant substance abuse, and suicide are becoming evident. The harm to children being out of school is still being assessed, but it’s sure to be massive.

Let’s not forget how we got the first shutdown. “Experts”using computer models predicted over 2.2 million deaths US deaths if we didn’t take lock-down. This wildly overstated the danger and was immediately challenged by others for basic errors. Still, combined with constant video of Italy’s single payer health system being overwhelmed with people dying in hospital hallways, caused panic. The misinformation has lived on. Even President Trump still says he saved millions of lives by shutting down based on the faulty models.We forget our lock-down was to prevent our medical system from being crushed. It was never to stay locked down till the virus was conquered.

However, the Narrative morphed into a choice between lives or the economy. This never made sense to many. I surely didn’t buy it. In my series on this blog on Covid-19, I based recommendations on the actual data. The numbers told us who was most at risk from the coronavirus. Based on what was known, I argued against a hard lockdown. I was hardly alone. The alternate recommendation was to adopt a more targeted approach to limit collateral damage. I’m not considered an expert by the elite. Just somebody looking at the generally available data and drawing what I think is are logical conclusions. However, there were plenty of “experts” that came to the same judgment.

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Myths Lead to Bad Policy

What we think we know for sure may not be right at all. If this is the case, we will make policy based on the wrong facts and data. You might think this doesn’t mean you, but let me throw a few commonly held beliefs that aren’t true. These are ones in no particular order that irritated me this past week. Truth is especially crucial in an election year.

The Middle Class is shrinking. This is true, but not for the reason most people think. The implication is people are falling out of the middle class and ending up in the lower levels. The truth is both the lower and middle classes have shrunk. Where did the people go? To the upper-middle class. According to a study published by the Bookings Institute, since 1967, the upper Middle Class grew from 6% to 33%. in 2016. Instead of the dark world of falling or stagnant incomes, we keep hearing about, the truth is quite good. Those who think African Americans have been left out, their participation rose from 1% to 14% in the same period. Like the TV show, “the Jeffersons” many are moving up to the East Side. They finally got a piece of the pie. In any case, this should’ve been evident by observing more people buying better cars and bigger houses.

Automation Cost the U.S. more jobs than Globalization. We are manufacturing just as much as always. We’re just doing with more robots and fewer people. Elites have given this excuse for a dismal China Policy on both sides of the aisle. They claimed the Clinton Administration’s welcoming China into the World Trade Organization didn’t really do much harm to U.S.manufacturing workers. This argument has always seemed questionable. People across the rust belt said they were feeling the pain. Former Senator Rick Santorum even wrote a book, “Blue Collar Conservatives,” about what was happening in states like Pennsylvania. Few read it. Elites claimed the data said otherwise. One who did read the book was Donald J. Trump. He saw how these people suffering real harm. He fit into his Mercantilist economic view. He hammered Globalization in the ’16 election and won. The Rust Belt went for him. 

Elites claimed Trump conned the people with a lie. It turns out Santorum by listening to his constituents was right. A study by Susan N. Houseman, Director of Research at the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. Points out the data so many relied on was faulty. Instead of manufacturing remaining steady in the face of Globalization, she showed the data recorded healthy growth only by how one industry was handled. Computers led to distortion. Houseman provides us with two charts that tell the story. 

The automation argument was always dubious. How could we be so automated when we badly trail Korea, Singapore, Japan, and Germany in the number of robots in use? 

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Counting Your Chickens

The Democratic Ticket is now complete with the naming of Senator Kamala Harris as their Vice Presidential candidate. A large part of the press is looking forward to a Republican general election rout . Maybe it will work out that way. After all, we’re in a pandemic t caused depression. Fair or not, you can’t blame voters for lashing out and demanding change. Yet, the Democratic Convention next week may mark that party’s high point. The press and the Democrats might be fooled by their echo chamber. Just because they believe and promote something, doesn’t automatically make it accurate, Truth has a funny way of sneaking out.

Take the almost across the board press support of the idea Harris is moderate. Her most progressive in the Senate Senate voting record says the opposite. She outdistanced the likes of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. If elected, she would be a heartbeat of a 78yr old away from the presidency. Biden doesn’t even have to die in office, just be unable to continue. Joe Biden’s announced plan is already far to the left. He has said he’ll be the most progressive President ever. Harris, if possible, would be even more so.

Up till the Coronavirus struck the US, the economy was firing on all cylinders. Presidents generally get re-elected in good times. With virtually everyone doing well, they don’t rock the boat mentality takes over. Now, with double-digit unemployment, the President is on the defensive. He’s the boss, and the buck stops with him. The whole world is suffering in some way from COVID 19. A few countries did better than others, but everyone is affected.

Trump was ill-served by the permanent bureaucracy. The CDC and the FDA initially handled testing for the virus in the worst possible way. We have never caught up. First, the same bureaucrats, pooh-poohed mask-wearing, only to do a one-eighty later on. To date, we have never provided the help needed to protect the most vulnerable. Far too many elderly and those with underlying conditions are still dying. These bureaucratic failures would’ve hobbled our response no matter who was President. Never the less, it happened on his watch.

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It’s Time to Think About the Children

We are about to make a horrible mistake. In numerous parts of the country, grade-schoolers will be going back to school on a less than regular basis or worse, not at all. We are regularly being lectured by many of our elites; we must follow the science. Yet, some of the same people have willfully ignored it. President Trump is excoriated for merely pointing out our children need to be in school. Already our children have fallen behind by up to a half year. This loss falls most heavily on our most vulnerable. We’ve found the younger the student, the less well distance learning works. The American Academy of Pediatrics has pointed out how important it is for children to be in school. Not only for education but also for social development they want the kids in school. If we don’t get them in school this fall, they may never catch up. This would be a devastating loss for our children and for our country.

The odd thing is we are having this conversation at all. There never was a coherent reason for closing the schools in the first place. Sweden never closed its primary schools. Its neighbors, Denmark and Norway, have been re-opened for months. Norway’s prime minister Erna Solberg has asked, “Was it necessary to close the schools?” She answered her own question, “Perhaps not.” In any case, they all opened without significant problems. A recent study showed schools in Finland closed schools between March 18 and May 13 while Sweden’s schools remained open. Despite that, the authors concluded, “Closing of schools had no measurable effect on the number of cases of COVID-19 among children.” It seems the worldwide consensus is the danger of keeping kids out of school far outweighs the risks of being in school. After all, the data shows children are much less affected by Covid-19 and spread it less.

Given the data, schools across the nation need to be formulating plans to open at least primary schools ASAP. There may be Covid-19 flareups in individual districts, but the goal has to be open all as soon and as much as possible. As in other countries, some employees, from teachers to bus drivers, may have pre-existing conditions that preclude their physical presence. If they can’t contribute remotely, they will need to be replaced. With double-digit unemployment, substitutes should be available. Any problems such as supplies and testing need to be identified so help can be delivered in a timely fashion. The Federal government could anticipate needs and be ready to backstop. The big thing is everyone needs to commit to getting the kids back in school. The assumption has to be we are going to be open in the fall.

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Some Observations

It is interesting to observe some of the things I predicted would happen have taken place. If we did a better job of protecting the elderly and others with underlying conditions, I said we could reopen the country without causing a massive death toll. Younger and healthier people may get the coronavirus in higher numbers, but very few would die. Most of the country has now been opening up. Protecting the vulnerable has been better. Also, people at risk and those close to them are more aware and have taken proper actions. Mask wearing other PPE use around the vulnerable has dramatically expanded. Even Gov. Cuomo now seems to recognize nursing homes must be protected. We still haven’t taken all the measures I proposed, but we have made progress. If better-targeted protections didn’t reduce mortality, then increasing confirmed cases would lead to increased deaths. This chart shows otherwise. Cases have significantly increased, but as I predicted, fatalities haven’t.

Early on, I also wondered why mask-wearing, especially where vulnerable people are present, wasn’t at least encouraged. Even though masks were widely worn in Asia where they had better outcomes, it wasn’t until April 3. The CDC reversed itself and favored masks. There was a shortage of medical gear, but the CDC in April encouraged homemade masks. Peop[e responded. Nothing prevented earlier adoption. This waffling by the authorities has led to needless controversy. Until now, our President seemed to resist wearing a mask. He should’ve set the right example. Can we all agree to wear a mask whenever you might be near an at-risk person? You may save your grandma.

Our failure to do targeted things to protect the at-risk early on has caused needless deaths. Now that more is being done, the results are evident. The better job we do protect the at-risk, the lower the number of deaths. That was always the choice. Not the false one of lives vs. the economy expounded by so many of our leaders.

n my posts at the time of the Ferguson, Mo in 2014 riots after the death of Michael Brown, I warned of the “Ferguson Effect.” If the police were placed in a no-win situation, they would be much less aggressive. This would result in rising crime and murder rates in lower-income areas. The statistics since have borne this out. Rather than recognizing more deprived regions anywhere in the world need more not less police presence, the police are demonized. Instead of striving for a workable community balance to improve the lives in higher crime areas, we have gone in the opposite direction. By disrespecting policing to the point of defunding, the predicable rise in minority deaths is already occurring. This will only get worse. We will see even more Blacks’ lives lost. We are endlessly told “Black Lives Matter,” but do they? To whom?

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