Divorced from Reality

The  extreme reaction to President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords brought  home just how divorced from reality elites in our country (and indeed worldwide) have become.  This was a strange agreement where 197 nations have signified their good intentions. Some state what they might do about global warming sometime in the future while others signed up for some handouts from a “Green Climate Fund”. It contains no enforcement mechanisms and apparently everyone can change anything they stated originally. Even in the  happy but unlikely circumstance  everyone does exactly what they promised, it would have little measurable effect on future climate. No solutions or even cost benefit analysis were offered.. Just a bunch elites gathering in Paris to make themselves feel good about themselves. Like Christians taking communion, the feel they have kept the faith through symbolism. They’re good Christians and if you didn’t well, see you in  hell.  Never mind you really haven’t done any actual good. The symbolism is everything. In fact, what are we actually withdrawing from? It’s not a verifiable treaty. If it was it should’ve been submitted for Senate approval. It was this pile of feel good holy grails that would have been resoundingly rejected by that august body. Even the far more serious League of Nations Treaty President Wilson signed failed to be ratified. (It didn’t stop World War II either but we digress).  Wilson and Obama could sign anything, but to obligate the nation they needed to convince the Senate and by extension the nation of the worth of their endeavors. Wilson had enough faith to bring the League to the Senate and the country. Obama knew these Paris Accords were so flawed he didn’t even try. Yet elites from both our major parties are rending their garments and crying the world is coming to an end. Why? The Paris Accords only symbolically recognized a problem, while doing little nothing to solve it. It just muddied the waters.

We need to realize we have real problem when we don’t do the real work to solve problems, We make only gestures. We have endeavored to point this out in health care. Instead of finding a reasonable way to give all our people real healthcare, both major parties offer up jumbled messes  leaving millions without coverage. More pre-existing conditions created through employment change to be dumped on someone. But just as with “climate change” both sides are ready to go to the barricades over these non-solutions. No wonder people question our leaders. They seem incapable of determining and tackling realities. Fighting over at best half measures inspires confidence in no one.

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Health Care and GPS

Why can’t we get from here to there?  Today we have access to GPS to guide us anywhere we wish to go.  Just walking around dodging people glued to their smartphones is indicative there is hardly anyone without GPS.  All you need to do is tell your phone where you want to go and it gives you turn by turn directions.  There’s just one rub, you must have a destination. Even something as wonderful as GPS is useless without a clear end point. This the failure of our present health care plans, whether it’s the ACA or the new Republican  AHCA.  Where exactly do you want to go? Is it universal coverage? We have that already.  The Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act in 1986 established anyone showing up at an emergency room needing medical care must receive it whether or not they could pay. From that point on we’ve had universal care, just the most expensive and least effective system possible.  Treating a cold at an emergency room is incredibly expensive, but waiting for something to become an emergency situation can be far worse. Without government total reimbursement, we have providers shifting costs to those who actually have insurance.  Up goes everyone’s premiums. This unfunded mandate has resulted in cost distortions without improving the overall access to health care. The first thing then, we have agree we have universal care but we have to make it effective care on a cost-effective basis. Emergency rooms just aren’t going to turn people away and someone will pay.

So how do we do we get to the right  Universal Coverage ? Some favor the Government solution. We’ll call it the Washington resolution.  Government either is the provider of all health care or  the sole payer for services. In the first instance think of the VA. Providers all work for the Government in buildings owned and equipped by government. In the second providers are paid for services by the government at prices it determines. Think medicare. Both are top down operations ,with Elites getting together to decide what’s offered at what price. History has taught us, no matter how smart the people running things are they rarely get it right. If this wasn’t true the Soviet Union would’ve won the cold war. Instead it crashed. Without market pricing to regulate supply, we can’t obtain market clearing prices. Too little capacity and we have shortages leading to long waits. Too much and we empty spaces and under utilized  resources. We in Phoenix are well aware of just how deadly long waiting times can be with the VA horrors.  The right to health care is meaningless unless it is given in a timely, professional and up to date fashion. The people who died waiting at the VA had “affordable”coverage.”  Didn’t do them much good.  Venezuelans have “coverage” but no medicine. Equal suffering doesn’t equate with actual care and we shouldn’t confuse the terms. Medicare and Medicaid offer “coverage” to an ever-increasing number of people, at the same time an ever decreasing number of people are offering to service them. Now we want to add more people? What could possibly go wrong?  Yet, those advocating the top down Government solution such as Bernie Sanders roar, “Medicare for all.” Never mind Medicare will exhaust its reserves in 2028 or sooner if we have a solid recession or two in the meantime. However, with all its problems the Government solution is popular the world over. Most of our NATO allies have gone this route. Europeans since World War II have really taken to entitlements no matter how uneconomic.  Maybe that’s why they can’t spend even 2% of their GDP for their own defense. It isn’t only other countries, our current President, a longtime single payer admirer, just lauded Australia’s Government centered system. It’s easy to see why. Initially it’s  simple to understand and use. You need medical care, just give them your medicare card. You paid something in and you’re entitled to care. Well maybe you didn’t and aren’t. According to Politifact in 2014:

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Catching Up on Politics & Health Care

Politics:

It’s been really hard to comment on the Trump administration. Whatever you thought Trump stood for yesterday is the opposite today.  Put a thought on paper about a Trump policy, turn on the TV and  find he’s now 180 degrees from where he was when you started writing. Not that we find this surprising. We warned everyone last November in our Election Recap post, if Trump adopted  the Republican establishment program he ran the risk of losing his clout.  His first act, the Travel Ban, was a disaster but at least kept faith with his most ardent followers.  However, health care was another thing entirely. Trump had promised “Repeal & Replace” Obama’s Affordable Care Act (ACA) and then outsourced the legislation to Paul Ryan and the Republican House leadership.  Six years in the making and their bill was so poorly conceived it garnered only 17% approval. Trump not only wasn’t aware of  the legislation’s multitude of failings but ordered his chief strategist, Steve Bannon, to demand the most conservative members of Congress, the Freedom Caucus, to fall in line and support the bill or else.  The Caucus at least realized the bill as written was unacceptable to everybody.  In fact, the Bill’s only saving grace for Republicans was it cut Medicaid enough to facilitate their Tax Cut Bill.  The Trump pressure expressed through Bannon,was horribly misplaced.  The only special power Trump has over some Republicans is the threat to primary opponents. This can only be done by running candidate further to the right against the offending incumbent. How do you get to the right of the freedom caucus?  With no running room on the right, the Administration could only belatedly give ground to the Freedom Caucus, but this lost moderate votes.  By not knowing where his power emanated from and how to use it, Trump saw the bill pulled with egg on everyone’s face. Bannon was blamed and now the Troika of Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner and Gary Cohn appear to giving direction to the administration. All three are Democrats.

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Reasons for Hope-or Not

In our last post LOOKING TO THE FUTURE we stated people, businesses and organizations interested in things such as free trade should get in the game now or they’ll have no place to go for help.  After all, one of the first things President Trump did was dump the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and no Democratic 2016 contender favored it. Remember Free Trade is essential to the proper functioning markets that are the core of capitalism. This week we became aware just how much work was needed to be done.  On Monday 2/13 we read an OP-ED in the Wall Street Journal we first thought was satire but apparently was a serious article. Blake Hurst the President of the Missouri Farm Bureau and  a soybean farmer authored a piece “Free Trade and How the Soybean Helped make America Great”. In it Mr. Hurst stated:

In my rural county in northwest Missouri, home to plenty of soybean farmers, Mr. Trump received about 75% of the vote. We were drawn to policies like his “two for one” executive order, which requires the removal of two regulations every time a new one is written. The vocal and at times vulgar protests against him have only solidified his support here.

But unease is growing in the more fertile parts of the hinterlands. As his trade policy comes into focus, it’s starting to scare the heck out of farmers.

Mr. Trump is now embarking on a huge economic experiment, one at odds with what had been a bipartisan commitment to increased international trade. He has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement that, according to the Farm Bureau, would have increased net farm income by $4.4 billion. The president has also promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. Yet since Nafta was signed, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico have increased to $18 billion in 2015 from $4.2 billion in 1994, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

A soybean farmer like me looks at Mr. Trump’s statements with particular unease. Data from the National Oilseed Processors Association show that China and Mexico, both targets of Mr. Trump’s trade policy, were the top buyers of American soybeans in 2015.

The question crying to be answered is where was Blake Hurst and the Missouri Farm Bureau before the election? For that matter where was the American farm Bureau? Trump  swept  rural agricultural America. If farmers are just now getting scared for their livelihoods, maybe it’s because the people they relied on to make them aware of major threats to their well-being failed them. Continue reading

AND THEN THE REPUBLICANS

In our last post 2017 The Year the World Ends we offered some observations and advice to Democrats looking forward.to 2020. The Republicans barring death or impeachment, will put forth Donald J. Trump for re-election. The real question is what Donald J. Trump that would be. At present Republicans have great hopes for the Trump Presidency. Many echo former  George W. Bush speechwriter Marc Thiessen’s  jubilation at Trump’s inauguration. Writing in his  1/19 Washington Post Column, he lists a number of  reasons for conservatives to celebrate. First of course is that he isn’t Hillary Clinton. He’ll appoint a Scalia  clone to the Supreme Court restoring a conservative majority. The cabinet will be “perhaps the most conservative Cabinet of any president in modern history.” He’ll”break the mold of governance in Washington.” Regulatory, education and tax reform will be accomplished. Our full energy potential will be realized. National defense will be greatly  strengthened. Even poverty would be addressed. Sounds as if he expects a Trump presidency would be much the same as a Kasich, Rubio or even a Jeb Bush presidency. Those Republicans agreeing with Thiessen probably see a united party riding a wave of conservative prosperity behind their “conservative” incumbent.

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