Year: 2017

Approaching 6 Months

Dave Davis Commentary, Uncategorized

How have the first 6 months of the Trump presidency gone? Guess it depends on your perspective.

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If you’re a Trump supporter you see great progress. David Gelernter writing in the Wall Street Journal put it this way:

I’d love for him to be a more eloquent, elegant speaker. But if I had to choose between deeds and delivery, it wouldn’t be hard. Many conservative intellectuals insist that Mr. Trump’s wrong policies are what they dislike. So what if he has restarted the large pipeline projects, scrapped many statist regulations, appointed a fine cabinet and a first-rate Supreme Court justice, asked NATO countries to pay what they owe, re-established solid relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia, signaled an inclination to use troops in Afghanistan to win and not merely cover our retreat, led us out of the Paris climate accord, plans to increase military spending (granted, not enough), is trying to get rid of ObamaCare to the extent possible, proposed to lower taxes significantly and revamp immigration policy and enforcement? What has he done lately

No question Trump has done some positive things for the right, but at what future cost? They have a nice originalist judge on the Supreme Court but at the cost reducing Senate confirmation to a simple majority. This leaves it to fate which party actually benefits in the future. Much of the positives cited by Gelernter are executive orders, some  simply  reverse those of Pres. Obama. A wave Democratic victory in 2020 and it all goes away. At first glance the cabinet is a conservative dream.  The question is simply is whether Trump will listen to any of them. The constant undercutting of the members by the President already is costing the group credibility. Maybe this is why the administration is having such a problem filling important open slots. Who likes to work for a boss who doesn’t have your back? Some members have already proven over rated. When he was in the House, Secretary of Health & Human Services Tom Price  was heavily involved in writing their Health Care bill. This embarrassment of Obamacare Light was to provide through cuts the money to underpin the Republican Tax cuts. Now not only are they stuck between a rock and a hard place on health care, tax reform is in real jeopardy. With the Presidency and both Houses, and Republicans have a good chance to go into 2018 without a major legislative victory. Also, let’s not forget Trump also took us out of TPP. The just concluded EU-Japan trade deal prompted the Wall Street Journal to editorialize:

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A Big week and a Reality Show

Dave Davis Commentary, Uncategorized

The “most expensive congressional race ever” and the Senate Republicans releasing their health plan would be a big week even without Trump tweets. Of course, Trump continued his tweets.  He and the Republicans applauded their success in retaining a couple of historically heavily Republican seats.  They seem to be saying, even if only one in three Americans thinks the President is doing a good job we can still retain control of congress over the lame old Democrats. We think this will prove to be Pyrrhic Victory.  If the Democrats had won they would’ve sat back and looked to ride the anti-Trump momentum to victory. No new leadership, bright candidates, ideas and organization would be needed. The Republicans would’ve had a wake up call to get their act together. Given his knowledge void, Trump would’ve possibly spent time learning about the issues both foreign and domestic. This would’ve left him with little or no time to tweet. Congressional Republicans might come up with health care and tax plans that didn’t look as if they were thought up by “old man Potter”.  Alas, they won and the tweets go on and the Senate Republicans gave us something we never thought possible, a plan worse than Obamacare. The same kind of unworkable Obamacare hodgepodge covering even fewer people. Now they face the 2018 election with an unpopular President who really fires up the Democratic base while they will have to defend a really bad health care law.  We’ve seen this play before in 2010.  Obamacare cost the Democrats the house even with a more popular President. Add new Democratic  leadership and bright candidates.  No callow youngsters living outside their chosen districts.  Hillary and Nancy Pelosi joining Harry Reid in the closet.  Well, maybe the Senate Republicans will fail to pass their Health care law. In that case, their impotence would be on display for all to see.  Harry Truman showed how you deal with a “do nothing Congress.” Either way the Democrat’s chances actually look better for 2018.

All this before we look at the latest Trump tweets. 41 days after threatening to release tapes of his Comey conversations, he finally tweets he doesn’t have any.  Really? Has anyone ever managed to look more guiltily when we’re not even sure a crime has been committed?  Going all the way back to the primaries and his refusal to release his taxes aroused our  suspicions. His disinterest in Russia’s Ukraine incursions and seemingly conceding Crimea to Putin, brought his praise of the Russian strong man into focus. When the damaging to the Democrat’s emails were traced to Wikileaks and by association the Russians, rather than blasting the Russians for interfering with our election he called on them to do more. Associates including his son-in-law failing to disclose meetings with Russians, only thickened this stew.  If Flynn’s lies and Trump’s actions in response doesn’t give you a creepy feeling, someone should check your pulse.

What to make of this? A doofus who keeps doing weird stuff? A Russian pawn? Just maybe it’s a Trump reality show to distract us. Here we have someone with signs front and back declaring “I’m Guilty”.  Given  a certain amount of clues, the contestants try to figure out  the crime. Sort of like Jeopardy, we know there is a criminal, but what is he guilty of?  This is getting huge ratings. You folks at home can play too.

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Divorced from Reality

Dave Davis Commentary, Policy, Uncategorized

The  extreme reaction to President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords brought  home just how divorced from reality elites in our country (and indeed worldwide) have become.  This was a strange agreement where 197 nations have signified their good intentions. Some state what they might do about global warming sometime in the future while others signed up for some handouts from a “Green Climate Fund”. It contains no enforcement mechanisms and apparently everyone can change anything they stated originally. Even in the  happy but unlikely circumstance  everyone does exactly what they promised, it would have little measurable effect on future climate. No solutions or even cost benefit analysis were offered.. Just a bunch elites gathering in Paris to make themselves feel good about themselves. Like Christians taking communion, the feel they have kept the faith through symbolism. They’re good Christians and if you didn’t well, see you in  hell.  Never mind you really haven’t done any actual good. The symbolism is everything. In fact, what are we actually withdrawing from? It’s not a verifiable treaty. If it was it should’ve been submitted for Senate approval. It was this pile of feel good holy grails that would have been resoundingly rejected by that august body. Even the far more serious League of Nations Treaty President Wilson signed failed to be ratified. (It didn’t stop World War II either but we digress).  Wilson and Obama could sign anything, but to obligate the nation they needed to convince the Senate and by extension the nation of the worth of their endeavors. Wilson had enough faith to bring the League to the Senate and the country. Obama knew these Paris Accords were so flawed he didn’t even try. Yet elites from both our major parties are rending their garments and crying the world is coming to an end. Why? The Paris Accords only symbolically recognized a problem, while doing little nothing to solve it. It just muddied the waters.

We need to realize we have real problem when we don’t do the real work to solve problems, We make only gestures. We have endeavored to point this out in health care. Instead of finding a reasonable way to give all our people real healthcare, both major parties offer up jumbled messes  leaving millions without coverage. More pre-existing conditions created through employment change to be dumped on someone. But just as with “climate change” both sides are ready to go to the barricades over these non-solutions. No wonder people question our leaders. They seem incapable of determining and tackling realities. Fighting over at best half measures inspires confidence in no one.

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Mechanics

Dave Davis Dave's Healthcare Plan, Uncategorized

How can we possibly take on all the pre-existing conditions in the country when just those under Obamacare are so costly under the Republican State pools alternative?  After all, Dave’s Plan covers virtually everyone  including the far more numerous covered under employer plans.  Won’t this explode the number with pre-existing making the plan unaffordable? This would be the case if everyone now with employer-provided insurance suddenly lost it and had to apply individually, but there is no reason for this to be the case.  These plans for the most part consist of the broad universe of health that insurance companies need to offer affordable insurance. We know that because they’re doing it now. These insurance companies whether directly or as administrators of employers self-insured plans know and accept these groups now.  Given the chance to sign up plan members as a group would give them the healthy to sick ratio they have already have. These are people healthy enough to work regular jobs.  Further signing the group would save them large acquisition costs while contributing to the wide base the company needs for true experience.

It may be in the insurance companies interest to do group transfers to their individual policies, but why would the employers facilitate the move?  Management of entities now offering health insurance tends to be older than the overall group. Being older they would be more likely to have more health problems.  They wouldn’t want to now get insurance on their own.  Better to have our XYZ Company plan move in mass to our an insurance company’s individual plans. Self interest is a mighty motivator. In any case employers will have to facilitate the move from  company savings plans to individual accounts so this would go right along with those transfers. In any case, the prospects of a much lower corporate tax, makes employer-provided insurance less attractive. This at a time when more companies need a fluid labor force.

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Health Care and GPS

Dave Davis Commentary, Dave's Healthcare Plan, Uncategorized

Why can’t we get from here to there?  Today we have access to GPS to guide us anywhere we wish to go.  Just walking around dodging people glued to their smartphones is indicative there is hardly anyone without GPS.  All you need to do is tell your phone where you want to go and it gives you turn by turn directions.  There’s just one rub, you must have a destination. Even something as wonderful as GPS is useless without a clear end point. This the failure of our present health care plans, whether it’s the ACA or the new Republican  AHCA.  Where exactly do you want to go? Is it universal coverage? We have that already.  The Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act in 1986 established anyone showing up at an emergency room needing medical care must receive it whether or not they could pay. From that point on we’ve had universal care, just the most expensive and least effective system possible.  Treating a cold at an emergency room is incredibly expensive, but waiting for something to become an emergency situation can be far worse. Without government total reimbursement, we have providers shifting costs to those who actually have insurance.  Up goes everyone’s premiums. This unfunded mandate has resulted in cost distortions without improving the overall access to health care. The first thing then, we have agree we have universal care but we have to make it effective care on a cost-effective basis. Emergency rooms just aren’t going to turn people away and someone will pay.

So how do we do we get to the right  Universal Coverage ? Some favor the Government solution. We’ll call it the Washington resolution.  Government either is the provider of all health care or  the sole payer for services. In the first instance think of the VA. Providers all work for the Government in buildings owned and equipped by government. In the second providers are paid for services by the government at prices it determines. Think medicare. Both are top down operations ,with Elites getting together to decide what’s offered at what price. History has taught us, no matter how smart the people running things are they rarely get it right. If this wasn’t true the Soviet Union would’ve won the cold war. Instead it crashed. Without market pricing to regulate supply, we can’t obtain market clearing prices. Too little capacity and we have shortages leading to long waits. Too much and we empty spaces and under utilized  resources. We in Phoenix are well aware of just how deadly long waiting times can be with the VA horrors.  The right to health care is meaningless unless it is given in a timely, professional and up to date fashion. The people who died waiting at the VA had “affordable”coverage.”  Didn’t do them much good.  Venezuelans have “coverage” but no medicine. Equal suffering doesn’t equate with actual care and we shouldn’t confuse the terms. Medicare and Medicaid offer “coverage” to an ever-increasing number of people, at the same time an ever decreasing number of people are offering to service them. Now we want to add more people? What could possibly go wrong?  Yet, those advocating the top down Government solution such as Bernie Sanders roar, “Medicare for all.” Never mind Medicare will exhaust its reserves in 2028 or sooner if we have a solid recession or two in the meantime. However, with all its problems the Government solution is popular the world over. Most of our NATO allies have gone this route. Europeans since World War II have really taken to entitlements no matter how uneconomic.  Maybe that’s why they can’t spend even 2% of their GDP for their own defense. It isn’t only other countries, our current President, a longtime single payer admirer, just lauded Australia’s Government centered system. It’s easy to see why. Initially it’s  simple to understand and use. You need medical care, just give them your medicare card. You paid something in and you’re entitled to care. Well maybe you didn’t and aren’t. According to Politifact in 2014:

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